90L Invest

Website · #201 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:04 am

TSAT IM
AGERY AT 210600Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.0N6 73.0W0.

Does that mean closed surface circulation???

#202 Postby **dgparent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:40 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 20 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 21/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 21/1630Z
D. 23.5N 76.0W
E. 21/1900Z TO 21/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

#203 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:17 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 21, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
weakening Tropical Depression Emily... located inland over northern
Mexico about 35 miles south-southwest of Saltillo Mexico.
A vigorous tropical wave is producing cloudiness and thunderstorms
over central and southeastern Bahamas...the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and adjacent waters of the western Atlantic Ocean.
Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
organzied...and surface observations...satellite imagery...and
radar data suggest that a broad surface low pressure system may be
forming over the central Bahamas. Upper-level winds are expected
to gradually become more favorable...and a tropical depression or a
tropical storm could form later today or tomorrow as the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. An Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system
this afternoon.
A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms over the western caribeban sea and adjacent land
areas of Central America. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala
...And Honduras during the next day or two...bringing locally heavy
rainfall to those areas. The wave may emerge over the Bay of
Campeche in 2 or 3 days...at which time some additional development
of the system would be possible.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Forecaster Stewart

A REAL, HERE WE GO AGAIN!!

frederic79 · #204 Postby **frederic79** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:36 am

Buoy data for this area, the eastern Gulf and western Carribean show SST's averaging 84.3 degrees F with a high observed just west of FL in the Gulf at 87.3. Improving shear conditions, warm water and now a surface low pressure center; here we go again...

#205 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:21 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
A LOW NEAR 24N75W 1014 MB...MOVING WNW 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS SINCE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAT ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING OF STRONG
CONVECTION EVIDENT WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM N-SE QUADRANTS. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL BUT THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT QUADRANT. DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES E ACROSS THE W ATLC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WNW AND
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS.

#206 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:25 pm

I have to say, it's already one of the best looking un-named tropical cyclones I have seen a quite a while.

#207 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:26 pm

I put a sticky for a few minutes for all to read the special feature from discussion.

#208 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
A LOW NEAR 24N75W 1014 MB...MOVING WNW 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS SINCE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAT ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING OF STRONG
CONVECTION EVIDENT WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM N-SE QUADRANTS. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL BUT THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT QUADRANT. DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES E ACROSS THE W ATLC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WNW AND
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS.

and so it begins.

<RICKY>

Rainband · #209 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:27 pm

jschlitz wrote:I have to say, it's already one of the best looking un-named tropical cyclones I have seen a quite a while.

agreed

chris_fit · #210 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:28 pm

Think that settles the movement debate for now at least :grrr:

#211 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:33 pm

QUESTION: If, and only if, the RECON doesn't reach the disturbance before 5 pm, will the NHC upgrade the system to depression and then wait for RECON's findings?

#212 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:34 pm

HURAKAN wrote:QUESTION: If, and only if, the RECON doesn't reach the disturbance before 5 pm, will the NHC upgrade the system to depression and then wait for RECON's findings?

Surely they can upgrade before recon arrives.

Thunder44 · #213 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:36 pm

000
WONT41 KNHC 211827
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED.

FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

I don't get it are they stilll doubting this has a closed surface circulation?

#214 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:37 pm

Thunder44 wrote:000
WONT41 KNHC 211827
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED.

FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

$$

At least TD 6 at 5 PM for sure!!!

Agua · #215 Postby **Agua** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:38 pm

Not sure how they're getting WNW out of that and it looks closer to 25N than 24N, but they're the guys with all the gizmoes.

#216 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:39 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Can see circulation forming, center seems to move more of a NW direction than WNW. This could be a TS that will effect the N.FL, GA, SC coast. before curving back out to sea.

#217 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:40 pm

we should all calm down....lol...we don't know where its going yet....GFS has been sucking with the strength of the ridge....one run its strong one is weak...we will see....i would have to favor the bams right now....cuz, that ridge is fairly strong

#218 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:42 pm

lol i know. lets just wait until it develops before we cast which way its gonna go in stone.

<RICKY>

hurricanefloyd5 · #219 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:42 pm

000
WONT41 KNHC 211827
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED.

mike18xx · #220 Postby **mike18xx** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:43 pm

Rainband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I have to say, it's already one of the best looking un-named tropical cyclones I have seen a quite a while.
agreed

Heh-heh.... In one of those ubiquitous polls, the one regarding when do you think the next named storm will occur (after Emily), I said "Three days."

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