Come on now folks.

[Stormcenter]

Come on now folks if you woke up this morning and
didn't read the NHC outlook or check out Storm2K forum and
just looked at the satellite loop below.
Wouldn't you think there were 2 developing sytems in the
tropics and not just 1?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[Lowpressure]

I think we may have two.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Trough is going to grab 90L...Now the Carribean blob may be a GOM threat once again!

[Thunder44]

I think we'd only have one in the Atlantic.

[Stormcenter]

I think we'd only have one in the Atlantic.

Ok if you say so.

[Sanibel]

Last night the Honduras flare struck me as the more likely to develop of the two. However it sits in an unfavorable climatological spot due to Emily's recent passing...

[jasons2k]

Last night the Honduras flare struck me as the more likely to develop of the two. However it sits in an unfavorable climatological spot due to Emily's recent passing...

I don't think Emily's recent passing has much to do with climatology; the synoptic environment is becoming favorable, and the SST's in the SW Caribbean are still very warm:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

They will prob. warm in the Gulf once again in another day or two after it settles.

Looks like the only thing really holding this back is its land interaction for now. I think Emily is far enough removed from the picture to have any influence.

(link fixed)

[Steve]

Well the key to that OTIS Map is that those are just anomalies. The water is still plenty warm.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Last night the Honduras flare struck me as the more likely to develop of the two. However it sits in an unfavorable climatological spot due to Emily's recent passing...

I don't think Emily's recent passing has much to do with climatology; the synoptic environment is becoming favorable, and the SST's in the SW Caribbean are still very warm:

http://proa.accuweather.com/www/phoenix ... sc-sst.htm

They will prob. warm in the Gulf once again in another day or two after it settles.

Looks like the only thing really holding this back is its land interaction for now. I think Emily is far enough removed from the picture to have any influence.

Totally agreed. Looks like the system will have a better chance in the Bay of Campeche. Bret anybody?

[HurricaneQueen]

90L looks much healthier there than on IR. I'll be anxious to see what recon finds.

[Brent]

Last night the Honduras flare struck me as the more likely to develop of the two. However it sits in an unfavorable climatological spot due to Emily's recent passing...

I don't think Emily did much to the water temps... remember, it was flying westward at almost 20 mph through that area. If it had moved slowly, then I might agree. It was also rather compact.

[Steve]

Take a look at the Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity guidance map. Both systems should be in areas where the heat content could allow for however far either of them can go.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

Steve

[jasons2k]

Well the key to that OTIS Map is that those are just anomalies. The water is still plenty warm.

Steve

Yep, still plenty warm:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... bl_sst.gif

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05jul/ ... 1_1212.png

On the second one, you can see Em's path is still there, but the water should receover quickly. Also, if anything tracks more northward it will avoid this shallow area of relatively cooler water.

[jlauderdal]

Come on now folks if you woke up this morning and
didn't read the NHC outlook or check out Storm2K forum and
just looked at the satellite loop below.
Wouldn't you think there were 2 developing sytems in the
tropics and not just 1?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

you are correct

[Yankeegirl]

I see 2 nice blobs of convection... Im going to refer to them as the "twins"...

[wxwatcher91]

whoever says there is only one TW and only one developing cyclone is either
1. incompetant
2. blind
3. ignorant
4. ill-informed
5. all of the above

in the western Atlantic and Caribbean there are currently two organized tropical waves with a good potential for development

READ the TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALTILLO MEXICO.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANZIED...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBEBAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA
...AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THOSE AREAS. THE WAVE MAY EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$


PLUS we are looking at a well-sized TW coming off of Africa

have I made myself clear?

[beachbum_al]

They are talking about them on the WC right now. The blob and the other one. He is talking about some type of circulation but don't for sure. The same old story. We will know more when the hurricane hunters investigate it. That is the one near Bahamas.

The Blob still watching.

How about the Blob twins.

[fci]

I see a twist in the "Bahama Blob".
IMO, TD at 5:00 PM if not already.

[Stormcenter]

A twist, you mean more like a circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

Right now I'm focused on the Bahama system... no evidence of anything other than a blob in the SW Caribbean.