A negative NAO usually means a trough in the North Atlantic and New England. A ridge over the N Atl would more favor tropical cyclones.
If I am wrong then please someone correct me.
Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely
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From Eglin AFB Tropical Weather Disc...
1115L 20 July Tropical Update:
Hurricane Emily made landfall this morning just south of Brownsville, Texas as a Category Three storm. It is moving inland and will dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico.
Elsewhere, perhaps I may have spoken too soon about getting a breather. Yesterday, a wave moving across the Leeward Islands and into Puerto Rico was being sheared by strong upper level winds and did not look like any potential threat. Unfortunately, over the past 12 hours those winds have relaxed considerably and an area of thunderstorms may be trying to organize just north of the Dominican Republic. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system as it moves WNW through the Bahamas on Thursday. It is expected to move across south Florida and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Obviously, with that kind of course, we will have to monitor this system closely. The good news at this point is that atmospheric computer models that have performed brilliantly on each of the five storms so far in 2005, do not forecast this system to significantly develop. We’ll have to wait and see.
The last sentence sums it up pretty well..."We'll have to WAIT and see."
Hurricane Emily made landfall this morning just south of Brownsville, Texas as a Category Three storm. It is moving inland and will dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico.
Elsewhere, perhaps I may have spoken too soon about getting a breather. Yesterday, a wave moving across the Leeward Islands and into Puerto Rico was being sheared by strong upper level winds and did not look like any potential threat. Unfortunately, over the past 12 hours those winds have relaxed considerably and an area of thunderstorms may be trying to organize just north of the Dominican Republic. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system as it moves WNW through the Bahamas on Thursday. It is expected to move across south Florida and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Obviously, with that kind of course, we will have to monitor this system closely. The good news at this point is that atmospheric computer models that have performed brilliantly on each of the five storms so far in 2005, do not forecast this system to significantly develop. We’ll have to wait and see.
The last sentence sums it up pretty well..."We'll have to WAIT and see."
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wxwonder12
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Don't be confused or freak. Most local/tv mets just follow the models and their understanding of local conditions. Many of them do not dig deeper for weather induced by the patterns themselves unless it's something repetitive or familiar to them (e.g. a morning seabreeze front). There are two systems here - one in the southern Bahamas and one in Central America. Depending on the development of the upper levels, the one in the southern Bahamas could be steered westward or westnortwest (less likely), could head north or north east (not too likely) or might just sit around there for a while waiting for something to pick it up or steer it (also waiting for the upper support to set up and possibly enhance development possibilities. The system over the Central America will still be over land at least probably until sometime over the weekend and will probably emerge in the Bay of Campeche as a blob of convction.
As for the N.A.O., typically a very negative reading on the NAO index is when there is a large low pressure sytem between the Canadian Maritimes/New England and Greenland. The opposite, a very positive NAO, often has what Joe B. and others refer to as a Newfoundland Wheel (or a large high pressure/clockwise roatating system) in that general area. Later in the hurricane season (admittedly I'm not well schooled on July systems because there usually aren't as many as there have been and will be in 2005), negative or positive NAO's can open up certain segments of the US Coastline to tropcial hits. I'd have to go back and research flhurricane from 2002 and 2003 when I made it a point to learn all this stuff (mostly forgotten now) as to which is which. But I think in positive NAO's in September, the Gulf tends to open up more where as in negative NAO's in September, there is a greater incidence of an east coast threat. (I may have that backwards as I am not a met or wannabe either).
Steve
As for the N.A.O., typically a very negative reading on the NAO index is when there is a large low pressure sytem between the Canadian Maritimes/New England and Greenland. The opposite, a very positive NAO, often has what Joe B. and others refer to as a Newfoundland Wheel (or a large high pressure/clockwise roatating system) in that general area. Later in the hurricane season (admittedly I'm not well schooled on July systems because there usually aren't as many as there have been and will be in 2005), negative or positive NAO's can open up certain segments of the US Coastline to tropcial hits. I'd have to go back and research flhurricane from 2002 and 2003 when I made it a point to learn all this stuff (mostly forgotten now) as to which is which. But I think in positive NAO's in September, the Gulf tends to open up more where as in negative NAO's in September, there is a greater incidence of an east coast threat. (I may have that backwards as I am not a met or wannabe either).
Steve
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Where are the Bastardi bashers now?
He was right about Emily, and he said that the area that is now 90L would be in the same general area it is now. After a shakey start I think he now has a good read on the tropics.
He was right about Emily, and he said that the area that is now 90L would be in the same general area it is now. After a shakey start I think he now has a good read on the tropics.
Last edited by jrod on Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormcenter
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