Will Recon go this afternoon and investigate 90L or not?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:06 am

Close call but I say yes.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:08 am

I say yes...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The system has gotten oreganized. A large area of convection has formed over its center. With outflow starting to develop...I can't wait for recon to give us a better idea.

Thunder44 · #3 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:29 am

I'll wait for visible images before I give an answer.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 am

What time doe's recon take off?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #5 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:50 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What time does recon take off?

Takeoff is scheduled for 12:30pm EDT

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #6 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:52 am

Of course, if recon does go ahead and invest... you can grab raw observations from S2K's Atlantic Recon Page (http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm). Ohh... and it auto-refreshes!!! That's something you can shake a stick at. (Well, you can, but what good will it do?)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:01 am

I need more recon baby!!! 8-)

#8 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:15 am

senorpepr wrote:Of course, if recon does go ahead and invest... you can grab raw observations from S2K's Atlantic Recon Page (http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm).

Too much effort for me to refresh this page, http://www.met.tamu.edu/personnel/students/weather/weather_interface.html, obviously. :lol:

#9 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:27 am

Yes -- for sure!

wzrgirl1 · #10 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:49 am

absolutely

:clap:

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:00 am

I say yes. There is no model consensus on this yet. Thats the frustrating part

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:29 am

Yes.

Until/If we get an LLC, the models really aren't that good, because they are just guessing at where an LLC might form.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:34 am

I say YES, but we will know for sure in less than 2 hours.

#14 Postby **Lowpressure** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:57 am

I say yes, but I would watch the carib for split attention.

chris_fit · #15 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:58 am

I say they better, it's lookin good.

#16 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:16 am

Looking better and better. I think they will go.

Thunder44 · #17 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:41 am

Yes, they will because their Recon Schedule came this morning for tomorrow's plan. They are going to do six hourly fixes. They don't say it's been cancelled today, and also maybe another invest possible in the BOC on Saturday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-0543

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 22/1200,1800Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0306A CYCLONE
C. 22/0900Z C. 22/1800Z
D. 27.0N 77.5W D. NA
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1830Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 23/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 22/2100Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:47 am

I say a big YES. The outflow looks great on 90L and it apears that there is some sort of circulation already (mid/lower level). I would not be surprised to see a depression by this evening.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:14 am

Thunder44 wrote:Yes, they will because their Recon Schedule came this morning for tomorrow's plan. They are going to do six hourly fixes. They don't say it's been cancelled today, and also maybe another invest possible in the BOC on Saturday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-0543

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 22/1200,1800Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0306A CYCLONE
C. 22/0900Z C. 22/1800Z
D. 27.0N 77.5W D. NA
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1830Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 23/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 22/2100Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Yes Thunder they will go and i will create a recon report thread.

Website · #20 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:15 am

11:30 TWO!!!

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANZIED...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

Will Recon go this afternoon and investigate 90L or not?

Will Recon investigate this afternoon 90L or not?

Will Recon go this afternoon and investigate 90L or not?

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