Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:25 am

Joe B is talking development in the Bahamas and S GOM over the weekend. Yes this stems from Invest 90 and the explosive convect in the SW Caribbean. The models indicate the distrubance in the SW Caribbean will move into the GOM toward Brownsville. The Bahama system may become stationary and wait around before moving N or NE.

I must say both systems look quite interesting especially Invest 90.

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:27 am

KatDaddy wrote:Joe B is talking development in the Bahamas and S GOM over the weekend. Yes this stems from Invest 90 and the explosive convect in the SW Caribbean. The models indicate the distrubance in the SW Caribbean will move into the GOM toward Brownsville. The Bahama system may become stationary and wait around before moving N or NE.

I must say both systems look quite interesting especially Invest 90.

Yes, I think the models will eventually catch on if they haven't
already.

HouTXmetro · #3 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:28 am

KatDaddy wrote:Joe B is talking development in the Bahamas and S GOM over the weekend. Yes this stems from Invest 90 and the explosive convect in the SW Caribbean. The models indicate the distrubance in the SW Caribbean will move into the GOM toward Brownsville. The Bahama system may become stationary and wait around before moving N or NE.

I must say both systems look quite interesting especially Invest 90.

I hope he is wrong for the sake of residents in STX/NEMX. That area would be devastated if another strong system moved into the area so soon after Emily. :eek:

x-y-no · #4 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:45 am

It seems to me that the piece in the Carribean is going to suffer too much from being over land in Central America. It may move northwest to the BOC, but it's going to be just a diffuse mess when it gets there.

The wave over the Bahamas is a tougher call, as far as I'm concerned. The GFS has it picked up by the shallow trough which is about to come through the east. But if the model is up to its old games of underestimating the ridge, then that connection could be missed, and this might have opportunity to develop and affect some portion of Florida or the east coast.

In favor of recurvature offshore is the fact that the center (to the extent there is anything one could call a center) is farther north than last night's setup suggested it would be. That improves the chance of a connection being made.

I said yesterday that they shouldn't bother with recon if there isn't an LLC by this morning, but I've reconsidered that. I think at least one flight into this thing is warranted.

Jan

stormandan28 · #5 Postby **stormandan28** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:47 am

is the area of disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean is moving north

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:49 am

stormandan28 wrote:is the area of disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean is moving north

It looks that way but I'm not 100% sure.

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:56 am

stormandan28 wrote:is the area of disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean is moving north

You can't just watch the cloud tops. There's strong upper-level divergence which is causing that big flare-up, but the wave axis is largely over land SW of there. The wave os propagating WNW, or maybe NW.

Jan

Javlin · #8 Postby **Javlin** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:14 am

I don't know Jan looks to me that the SW Carib action has to go NNW or N.If that happen then 90L brushes the Carolina's would be my guess.There appears to be a TUTT like feature digging into the BOC,the SW Carib feature has to go N.The TUTT could I guess get cut off in time and turn into an ULL thus in time sending the Carib feature NW.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

#9 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:19 am

NWS Houston seems to think it is moving N or NW:

"THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE TX COAST MONDAY."

HouTXmetro · #10 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:22 am

jschlitz wrote:NWS Houston seems to think it is moving N or NW:

"THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE TX COAST MONDAY."

Lower/mid/upper?

They were saying upper just yesterday.

#11 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:24 am

They didn't seem to specify. I don't think it would be prudent for them to do so this far out. Who knows what it will be by the time it gets here, anything from a Blob to a mature cyclone.

HouTXmetro · #12 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:26 am

jschlitz wrote:They didn't seem to specify. I don't think it would be prudent for them to do so this far out. Who knows what it will be by the time it gets here, anything from a Blob to a mature cyclone.

If it's gonna be here by Monday then it won't have much time to develope at all.

#13 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:31 am

That was an interesting video Kat. I like Joe's description on the GFS not sensing the energy yet but perhaps seeing the pattern at 200mb and 500mb. So if the teleconnection between the WPAC tropical storm (moving very slowly) indicates anything for 90L, it well could get stuck out there off the east coast of Florida waiting for the steering currents to nudge it along one way or the other. One thing I think I've learned so far this season is that some July storms don't seem to be in a hurry to get anywhere. They move over water but go pretty slow once in land. Dennis was amazing the way it just sat over southern Illinois for days until a piece sheared off SW through Texas and Mexico and the other piece went off the NE Coast and Canadian Maritimes to develop what might be the lowest NAO values in a LONG LONG time. Check out the progs for the NAO over the next 15 days. I'm not sure we saw values that low in over a year (though I didn't go back and check the hindcasts).

Here's the link to the GFS Ensembles "mean" NAO forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ensm.shtml

Steve

Duffy · #14 Postby **Duffy** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:43 am

im plain English for the Lay people on this board, what does a Low NAO mean during the Hurricane Season?

HouTXmetro · #15 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:59 am

Duffy wrote:im plain English for the Lay people on this board, what does a Low NAO mean during the Hurricane Season?

I was wondering the same thing!!! What is NAO in laymens terms?

wzrgirl1 · #16 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:01 am

NAO=North Atlantic Oscillation

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/NAO/

#17 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:02 am

Duffy wrote:im plain English for the Lay people on this board, what does a Low NAO mean during the Hurricane Season?

A low NAO = "Go time" for tropical development. The 15 day forecast shows it tanking pretty deep in the negative.

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:03 am

North Atlantic oscillation

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thod.shtml

Duffy · #19 Postby **Duffy** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:03 am

okay thanks

HouTXmetro · #20 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:09 am

I'm still lost, does it have something to do with global pressure heights?

Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely

Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely

Re: Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely

Re: Joe B...Two Areas to Watch Closely

the way it looks

Re: the way it looks

Re: the way it looks

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