Hats off to the NHC TWICE again!!!

[FritzPaul]

After Cindy gave the NHC a little trouble by switching her predicted
landfall from southeast TX to Lake Charles LA to south of Lafayette
LA to Grand Isle LA, the NHC was steller in handling Dennis and Emily:

1) Dennis's forecast was pretty much nailed down 120 hrs out (5-day).
Their only glitch here was a longer than expected tour accross Cuba.
The WOW factor was such that Dennis was south of the border
between Haiti and the Dominican Republic when the 120 hr forecast
came out (Adv #7: 11am EDT Wednesday 7/6/05). Pretty darn good
considering their avg. 5-day error I belive is @ 320 nms.

2) They pretty much had Em's track nailed down 120 hrs out (5-day).
Their track was almost perfect on the predicted Yucatan crossing,
and as for the 2nd landfall, the NHC was only off by @ 100 miles.
Emily was south of the Dominican Republic when the 120 hr. forecast
came out (Adv #18: 5am EDT Friday 7/15/05). Pretty darn good
considering their avg. 5-day err I belive is @ 320 nms.

So maybe SOME (not all... just a select few) posters will cut down
their disagreement and bashing of the NHC's products.

Paul

PS:Sorry if someone has patted the NHC on the back on another thread.
No malace was intended for any Storm2k members ( even the "storm
is missing her forecast points" folks, but the gist of this post is to
compliment the NHC on an awesome job in the handling of the last
2 storms.

[EDR1222]

I agree. They have done a very good job with track forecasting this season. The models were in fairly good agreement on most runs as well with Dennis and Emily.

[greenie88]

In all fairness to the NHC. Cindy was a disorganized system whose center relocated 100+ miles to the North. When that happens, forget what the previous track predicted...it's a new storm center that has to be initiated into the models. Once they got a few runs in with the new center the landfall wasn't that far away from the 36 hr out prediction.

[jkt21787]

Completely agree. The last two forecasts (on Dennis and Emily), have been some of the best ever done by NHC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If they did not do a good job or good forecast, then we would have problems. The truth is they been doing this for years. With studies in the field, papers,text books. They are the pro's...In they are getting Paid to do so. It is a given that they would do very good with the millions of dollars of forecasting stuff they have at there finger tips. In believe me, I really can't judge them. Because I'm not anywhere near as knowledgeable, or to put it into a way I'm nothing to this field of tropical cyclone forecasting. As they as they are.

I thank god for them given us the insight into just a little taste of there great knowledge. Knowing that I will never come close to them. Not in a million years. But a good job is what is expected out of them...In really they do it out of love for what they do.

I'm a no body. I'v holded the nhc very high over the past few years...But could I do better "no"...I'v tried to make forecast...In which I did not do to badly. But the nhc is king...I know that it would take me the rest of my life to even catch up to them.(50 years)...I'm going to try my hardest. But even if I some day catch up they will be way ahead.


So thank god for the nhc. Thank god for the nws, and think god for the pro's here at storm2k that have taught me so much. Before then I was just something you don't went to talk about. Thank you very much.

[wxmann_91]

If they did not do a good job or good forecast, then we would have problems. The truth is they been doing this for years. With studies in the field, papers,text books. They are the pro's...In they are getting Paid to do so. It is a given that they would do very good with the millions of dollars of forecasting stuff they have at there finger tips. In believe me, I really can't judge them. Because I'm not anywhere near as knowledgeable, or to put it into a way I'm nothing to this field of tropical cyclone forecasting. As they as they are.

I thank god for them given us the insight into just a little taste of there great knowledge. Knowing that I will never come close to them. Not in a million years. But a good job is what is expected out of them...In really they do it out of love for what they do.

I'm a no body. I'v holded the nhc very high over the past few years...But could I do better "no"...I'v tried to make forecast...In which I did not do to badly. But the nhc is king...I know that it would take me the rest of my life to even catch up to them.(50 years)...I'm going to try my hardest. But even if I some day catch up they will be way ahead.


So thank god for the nhc. Thank god for the nws, and think god for the pro's here at storm2k that have taught me so much. Before then I was just something you don't went to talk about. Thank you very much.

I agree. Great post.

The NHC really has done a great job on these fcsts, and it doesn't matter what other people say, the forecasters at the NHC are arguably the best out there in the world. Great job by the NHC. And yes, though they mess up once in a while, these are forgivable because we are all humans. For them to be almost perfect so many times, that is just amazing despite those few times where the fcsts do not come out as expected.