90L and SW Caribbean System Flaring Up Tonight

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html - This shows both systms flaring. I wouldn't doubt it if an Invest was put up for the SW Caribbean system..which appears to be moving north toward the Gulf of Mexico. Both systems appear to be gaining at least thunderstorms and convection, I have no idea where the 'center of circulations' are so...there's no way for me to know if the convection is anywhere near them. If they were, that would signify some fair strengthening.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

Actually they've both have been pretty consistent with their convection throughout the day but you are correct the convection is flaring up even more so tonight in both. What a month if these two disturbance were to somehow develop.
I don't think anyone in their wildest dream thought we would have so far 5 storms in July with STILL 10 days left.

[EDR1222]

i was noticing that as well. Still looks like some pretty good shear in the around 90 however.

[boca]

What are the local weather mets saying about 90L and the Caribbean mess over your side of the state.

[MortisFL]

West Carib. disturbed weather looking better than 90L right now.

[HouTXmetro]

I think they are too close for both to develop.

[wxmann_91]

West Carib. disturbed weather looking better than 90L right now.

Yes, it does look like the SW Caribbean area has a better potential of making it to TC status. There is less shear there, and it's in warmer waters.

Then again, it really depends on which develops first. The SW Carib area looks better, but there has to be a reason for it not to be an invest. Whichever develops first will develop outflow first. The outflow from the developing system will shear the other system.

Look at recent examples such as Fran and Gustav (1996) and Dennis and Emily (1999). The latter storm in both cases didn't strengthen beyong TS status.

EDIT: From the looks of things, the SW Carib. system is actually shearing 90L. Interesting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear has droped big time over 90L over the last 3 to 6 hours. The shear over it is now 5 to 15 knots. The big blow up an convection has formed where the center is. Outflow is looking good. So slow development intill it can form a surface low is likely. The system in the caribbean has 30 knot shear it is moving into. So 90L could become a tropical depression over the next few days.

A ball of convection has formed right over the expected center. With some outflow to the north,

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... pal&zoom=2

[southerngale]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 25.0N 100.2W...OR
ABOUT 56 NM SSE OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND 156 NM WSW OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING W 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW
THE CENTER OF EMILY HAS CROSSED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER NE MEXICO AS EMILY WINDS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY TO THE N OF THE CENTER TO THE RIO GRANDE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE 27N101W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR
22.5N98W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N22W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 6N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION THAT REACHES
FROM THE ITCZ N TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE AREA IS
SURROUNDED BY A THICK PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. WAVE ITSELF HAS A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN W BEHIND THE
WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 21N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE THAT IS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE THICK PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR...THUS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

WEAK SE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 13N MOVING W
10 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY
UPPER AIR...SO ANY CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N72W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 6N75W
MOVING WNW 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM
TO THE E OF THE N END OF THE WAVE N OF 16N ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 25N W OF 67W...FORCED BY A SHARP
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED FOR ANY SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONG CONVECTION COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS DISTORTED DUE TO THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE/LOW THEN
CENTERED ALONG 10N28W 9N40W 12N47W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 45W-52W WITH A
HEAVIER CONCENTRATION FROM 7N-10N W OF 52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY
ARE NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST INTO S TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LOCATED OVER EMILY CONTINUES TO PUMP HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 92W...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AS STRONGER UPPER N TO NE DOMINATES THE GULF. THIS FLOW IS
THE RESULT OF THE APPROACHING SHARP TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS LARGELY DRY WITH
DISSIPATING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER FLORIDA MOVE
RAPIDLY INTO THE E GULF N OF 25N. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER CUBA MOVING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
SHOWER FREE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN FIRE UP WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES LATE FRI OVER THE SE GULF AHEAD OF A NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE.

CARIBBEAN...
SHARP...NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 28N78W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N76W WITH FLOW COVERING
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 67W-85W. DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING THE CONVECTION N OF 16N
FROM 68W-74W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. STRONG DIFFLUENCE TO
THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LYING OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 14N80W-18N84W.
THIS DIFFLUENCE LIES E OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING NW
AFTER 24 HRS...AS WELL AS THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE...SO
ROUNDS OF CONTINUOUS SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL. OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...DEEP DRY AIR HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER E OF 65W...REINFORCED BY A SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE NOW COVERS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
SHARP...NARROW MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N78W ACROSS W CUBA COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 74W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N66W NW TO 29N70W...COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA OF THE W ATLC S OF 25N FROM 67W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS IS RATHER
BENIGN. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N42W SW TO 23N58W AND THIS HAS SERVED TO CUT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN HALF NEAR 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N50W SW TO 27N53W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH LOCATED NEAR 18N30W. THIS HAS PROPELLED AN
EXTENSIVE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLC
E OF 40W. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N45W THEN SPLITS...A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N60W NW TO THE COAST OF THE U.S.
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

$$
WALLACE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The MM5 is developing it into a 990 storm as it turns it north then northeast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 100/7.html

[southerngale]

Quite interesting...however the system in the SW Caribbean continues to consolidate..it appears as it may be the first to get it's act together.

I think that's what they're talking about.

[Sanibel]

Wait until tomorrow. A storm just swept this area. Its only chance is north.


Caribbean looks like a monsoon trough again...

[southerngreen]

What are the local weather mets saying about 90L and the Caribbean mess over your side of the state.

our ABC affiliate (Tpa area) basically said "no chance of this thing developing" (don't say the N word - never)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What are the local weather mets saying about 90L and the Caribbean mess over your side of the state.

our ABC affiliate (Tpa area) basically said "no chance of this thing developing" (don't say the N word - never)

The never word should get these Mets into trouble....I would think?

[DAVE440]

The MM5 is developing it into a 990 storm as it turns it north then northeast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 100/7.html

At least one local Met. had that same forecast wed. nite.
Said high pressure was still out in the atlantic off of florida and that the
tropical wave (or whatever might develop) would be pulled towards the high.

I'm not sure why it would be gravitating towards a high....but... I haven't seen the water vapor loops so I'm guessing what they might be referring to is the high is in the atlantic but doesn't extend to Floridas coast so the storm is being allowed to slip up in there and then driven around the high to the north and then ne.

Met. said that we'd be getting some wind here as a result but no direct impact from the system.

[southerngreen]

BTW - what's this going to do to the shuttle? is it still on the pad? how long does it take to roll it out?

[DAVE440]

BTW - what's this going to do to the shuttle? is it still on the pad? how long does it take to roll it out?

Most likely nothin. It's not even a system yet so I seriously doubt NASA is thinkin about it. Unless it was a cane comin their way the shuttles stayin on the pad....Unless....it's already been rolled back to work on the fuel sensor problem. We'd probably have heard that on the news tho.
I think they have till July 31 to get it up or they have to wait for Sept for next launch window to put it in orbit near the space station.

[DAVE440]

Just found this...

July 26 Targeted for Discovery Launch

NASA is wrapping up work on Discovery's fuel sensor circuit problem and now plans to pick up the countdown Saturday, with a launch no earlier than 10:39 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 26.

[Nimbus]

There does seem to be a ridge building over the Caribbean and expanding north.
Maybe the NHC will mention it in the outlook statement

[wxwatcher91]

is 99L still out there???

[senorpepr]

is 99L still out there???

99L weakened and split. A remnant portion of 99L was redeveloped into the 90L we've grown to love today.