TS Nalgae in the WPAC weakens!

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 167.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTH-
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE OF SURFACE INFLOW INTO A DEVELOP-
ING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
AND IMPROVED SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.



18/1425 UTC 22.3N 166.7E T1.5/1.5 91W -- West Pacific Ocean

Like the Atlantic Ocean, the WPAC also has barometric lows that make the transition to subtropical and later to tropical stage. This is an example.

[Swimdude]

Sounds promising. What # storm would this be for the WPAC?

[HURAKAN]

Sounds promising. What # storm would this be for the WPAC?

Number 6.

[beachbum_al]

Another one to watch!

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 167.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 166.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH OF WAKE
ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE CONVEC-
TION CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE SEPARA-
TION OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.



19/1425 UTC 23.5N 164.6E T1.5/1.5 91W -- West Pacific Ocean


The system continues to produce convective activity but separated from the center of circulation. Apparently, it's being affected by moderate shear. Slow development is possible.

[HURAKAN]

19/2025 UTC 24.0N 164.2E T2.5/2.5 91W -- West Pacific Ocean




Dvorak classicafion now corresponds to a tropical storm. The system has increased in convection, mainly to the north of the center. In conclusion, it seems the system begins to show clear signs of organization.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 192230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/192221ZAPR05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.6N 164.3E TO 26.5N 161.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 192025Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 164.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N
167.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 164.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 192056Z MULTISPECTRAL IMAGE INDICATE RAPIDLY INCREASING CON-
VECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO LINKAGE WITH
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE PO-
TENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202230Z.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE

TD 6W seems to be around the corner, fortunately, it will be over the open waters of the WPAC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192221Z JUL 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 24.1N 163.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 163.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.4N 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.8N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.0N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.8N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.2N 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 163.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 192221Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 192230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//




TD 6W forms in the open waters of the WPAC, and the WPAC reclaims the lead!

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting storm

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 24.7N 163.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 27.5N 160.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 24.7N 163.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 163.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.1N 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 126 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
082 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
081 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 27.4N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.7N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
026 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
031 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
121 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 30.2N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
131 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 33.5N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 36.9N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.1N 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 163.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//

NNNN



The next name to be used in the WPAC is "Nalgae."

[HURAKAN]

There is "Nalgae" in the NE quadrant of the picture. The system is relatively small, and intensification is expected.

[HURAKAN]

wtpn31 pgtw 201500
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 06w (Nalgae) warning nr 003
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
201200z --- near 25.6n 162.7e
movement past six hours - 325 degrees at 10 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
120 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 25.6n 162.7e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
210000z --- 27.1n 161.2e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
radius of 034 kt winds - 125 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
125 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 320 deg/ 10 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
211200z --- 28.6n 159.7e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
100 nm southeast quadrant
110 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 320 deg/ 09 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
220000z --- 29.9n 158.4e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 125 nm northeast quadrant
100 nm southeast quadrant
105 nm southwest quadrant
125 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 325 deg/ 08 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
221200z --- 31.2n 157.4e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
120 nm southeast quadrant
120 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 335 deg/ 09 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
231200z --- 34.4n 155.6e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
125 nm southeast quadrant
125 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 360 deg/ 13 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
241200z --- 39.4n 155.4e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
vector to 120 hr posit: 040 deg/ 16 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
251200z --- 44.2n 160.7e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
becoming extratropical
---
remarks:
201500z position near 26.0n 162.3e.
Tropical Storm (TS) 06w, located approximately 445 nm north-
northwest of Wake Island, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots
over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at
201200z is 15 feet. Next warnings at 202100z, 210300z, 210900z
and 211500z.//



TS 6W is named "Nalgae" as I anticipated. The storm is forecast to continue intensifying but stay a little short of typhoon status. This will be considered in the Atlantic as a "fish" because it will only be a marine hazard.

[P.K.]

T0506 (NALGAE)

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 26.0N 161.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 29.2N 159.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 221800UTC 31.7N 157.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 231800UTC 32.8N 158.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 26.9N 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.3N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.9N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.5N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.1N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.1N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.0N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 47.0N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 160.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z,
211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.




Nalgae intensifies, expected to reach typhoon status. The system remains a marine hazard.

[senorpepr]

Well... I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page to add JMA, CMA, and JTWC advisories on Nalgae along with storm floaters.

[P.K.]

T0506 (NALGAE)

WTPQ21 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 27.6N 160.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 30.5N 159.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 230600UTC 32.2N 160.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 240600UTC 33.9N 163.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT =

[P.K.]

Took a while to find this thread. 45kts, 992hPa.

T0506 (NALGAE)

WTPQ21 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 29.7N 158.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 31.6N 158.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 231800UTC 32.9N 160.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 241800UTC 34.1N 162.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =

[P.K.]

I'm not sure who edited the title of this but it hasn't weakened. In fact the pressure has fallen since last night.

T0506 (NALGAE)

WTPQ21 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 30.6N 158.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 31.9N 159.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 240600UTC 33.0N 163.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 250600UTC 34.5N 166.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT =

[P.K.]

T0506 (NALGAE)

WTPQ21 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 32.6N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 34.5N 164.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 250600UTC 36.2N 166.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
69HF 260600UTC 38.0N 168.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =