Now batting: 90L

[Steve H.]

If it this area makes it into the GOM, it will do so by crossing south-central Florida first. This disturbed area of weather is moving WNW east-southeast of the Bahamas.

[HouTXmetro]

Wait, I thought this was 99L?

[stormie_skies]

Wait, I thought this was 99L?

As I understand it, 99L split in two a few days ago.....the part that continued to be tracked as 99L traveled northward. This is the other part, which traveled westward. It was given a new name because it wasnt considered to be the former center of 99L....and because both parts cant keep the same name....

[wxman57]

I don't see any recent obs down in the area, but surface pressures are in the 1018-1020mb range. Kind of high for development. I wouldn't expect much for a day or two until it gets farther west, perhaps in the eastern Gulf.

[vbhoutex]

Wait, I thought this was 99L?

As I understand it, 99L split in two a few days ago.....the part that continued to be tracked as 99L traveled northward. This is the other part, which traveled westward. It was given a new name because it wasnt considered to be the former center of 99L....and because both parts cant keep the same name....

Correct!!

And so much for any rest!! Maybe it will do nothing!! We can always hope!!

[Steve H.]

Agreed. this is not an overly impressive system, and pressures are high.

[gkrangers]

Wait, I thought this was 99L?

As I understand it, 99L split in two a few days ago.....the part that continued to be tracked as 99L traveled northward. This is the other part, which traveled westward. It was given a new name because it wasnt considered to be the former center of 99L....and because both parts cant keep the same name....

Correct!!

And so much for any rest!! Maybe it will do nothing!! We can always hope!!

Do nothing would be boring...I'd settle for a nice little TS, Cat 1 tops.

Gives us something to talk about, without the consequences of a major hurricane....

[cajungal]

I am soooooooooooo tired. Make it stop!

[wxman57]

I've been checking out the 18Z model guidance to see where they think 90L may go. 18Z GFS and ETA say northwest then north then northeast and out to sea, just like the BAMS model was indicating. 12Z NOGAPS says the same thing. 12Z ECMWF moves it into the eastern FL Peninsula then northward. UKMET is similar to the ECMWF. For what it's worth, the Canadian is on the east of Florida bandwagon as well. Even the experimental WRF model says east of Florida. The 18Z MM5 out of FSU isn't all in yet, but it looks like it's saying east of Florida as well. None of the models develops the wave into anything significant.

The only models I can find that bring the wave into the eastern Gulf now are the BAMM/BAMD. These two models are not dynamic, so they shouldn't be used north of the deep tropics, however.

So maybe, just maybe, we won't have another storm in the Gulf this weekend. And maybe I can finally get a few days off.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All it has to be is a weak tropical storm moving northward into the Atlatnic. Then we got the record.

[jlauderdal]

I've been checking out the 18Z model guidance to see where they think 90L may go. 18Z GFS and ETA say northwest then north then northeast and out to sea, just like the BAMS model was indicating. 12Z NOGAPS says the same thing. 12Z ECMWF moves it into the eastern FL Peninsula then northward. UKMET is similar to the ECMWF. For what it's worth, the Canadian is on the east of Florida bandwagon as well. Even the experimental WRF model says east of Florida. The 18Z MM5 out of FSU isn't all in yet, but it looks like it's saying east of Florida as well. None of the models develops the wave into anything significant.

The only models I can find that bring the wave into the eastern Gulf now are the BAMM/BAMD. These two models are not dynamic, so they shouldn't be used north of the deep tropics, however.

So maybe, just maybe, we won't have another storm in the Gulf this weekend. And maybe I can finally get a few days off.....

i wouldn't be making an issue out of days off around weather offices anytime soon or you might end up like t.johnston in miami.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68702

[Rainband]

Rainband - that wasn't a Texas discussion - that was a New Orleans one.

Sounded like a texas one

[southerngale]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

I have said many times how some of the Texas discussions get eager too early in the game. Just an observation I have made.

That's very interesting because almost every time someone mentions that something far out or not developed yet (and maybe even already developed!) might head this way, I check the Lake Charles and Houston discussions (I live between the two but technically am in the Lake Charles NWS zone), and they RARELY mention anything. I'm not saying they never do because obviously one did above, but almost every time I'm looking to see if they mention something that I've heard somewhere else, always NADA. Maybe you just happen to hit it at the right times. lol

They're generally very conservative about things, at least IMO.

[Rainband]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

I have said many times how some of the Texas discussions get eager too early in the game. Just an observation I have made.

That's very interesting because almost every time someone mentions that something far out or not developed yet (and maybe even already developed!) might head this way, I check the Lake Charles and Houston discussions (I live between the two but technically am in the Lake Charles NWS zone), and they RARELY mention anything. I'm not saying they never do because obviously one did above, but almost every time I'm looking to see if they mention something that I've heard somewhere else, always NADA. Maybe you just happen to hit it at the right times. lol

They're generally very conservative about things, at least IMO.

I will find the ones I am talking about later. Sorry didn't mean to frazzle anyone. Just something I noticed

[Steve]

All the mets here say east of Florida. I'm in wait and see mode.

Steve

[corpusbreeze]

I've been checking out the 18Z model guidance to see where they think 90L may go. 18Z GFS and ETA say northwest then north then northeast and out to sea, just like the BAMS model was indicating. 12Z NOGAPS says the same thing. 12Z ECMWF moves it into the eastern FL Peninsula then northward. UKMET is similar to the ECMWF. For what it's worth, the Canadian is on the east of Florida bandwagon as well. Even the experimental WRF model says east of Florida. The 18Z MM5 out of FSU isn't all in yet, but it looks like it's saying east of Florida as well. None of the models develops the wave into anything significant.

The only models I can find that bring the wave into the eastern Gulf now are the BAMM/BAMD. These two models are not dynamic, so they shouldn't be used north of the deep tropics, however.

So maybe, just maybe, we won't have another storm in the Gulf this weekend. And maybe I can finally get a few days off.....

What about that so called high pressure sitting over the South East USA? Emily couldnt buck it .

[deltadog03]

the ridge is suppose to be strong until late weekend....that should push this system to the west....remember the models have had a northward bias early in systems so far this year

[wxmann_91]

All the mets here say east of Florida. I'm in wait and see mode.

Steve

Looking like last year's Alex. Around the same timeframe too.