90L Invest

gkrangers · #61 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:33 pm

perk wrote:I can't believe that some of you are already pinpointing a landfall based on a single model run. 90L is'nt even a classified system yet, and looking at that model run where is the consistency.

I don't see any landfall predictions.

HouTXmetro · #62 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:48 pm

I generalized what region might be affected but that is far from pinpointing a landfall.

Shoshana · #63 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:49 pm

stormie_skies wrote:This must be the wave KHOU said might move into our area this weekend or early next week.....better get out the radar, AGAIN.....

Yup, our local tv weather people just said the same thing!

'shana

perk · #64 Postby **perk** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:57 pm

Look we might be tracking this system for several days. If we're gonna start to get combative this early what's it gonna be like a couple days from now.

T'Bonz · #65 Postby **T'Bonz** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:58 pm

I've been watching this for a few days and it looked to my amateur eye to developing into something.

Oh well...one more week until we get our hurricane shutters. Hopefully the season can hold off just a bit longer, lol.

#66 Postby **sweetpea** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:59 pm

When is the next update on this storm?

JamesFromMaine2 · #67 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:03 pm

well every one we better get our rest today and tomorrow since this weekend we could be busy with yet another storm! lol

Hurricaneman · #68 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:04 pm

Possibily

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:08 pm

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NE COLOMBIA THRU
CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N68W IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 23N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR 21N70W
AND 1-2 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
NEARBY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 67W-72W.

From 2:05 Discussion.Still a long way to go.

Hurricaneman · #70 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:10 pm

Its got a chance

#71 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:16 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:Hooray...another Florida storm lol...well potentially it is.

Hi Kevin!

Yankeegirl · #72 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:24 pm

Send it to Texas... Give the Eastern Gulf a break!! :lol:

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:36 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1800 050721 0600 050721 1800 050722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 71.0W 22.7N 73.1W 23.9N 74.8W 24.7N 76.2W
BAMM 21.0N 71.0W 22.6N 73.8W 24.0N 75.9W 25.2N 77.6W
A98E 21.0N 71.0W 22.3N 73.1W 23.7N 75.2W 25.1N 77.1W
LBAR 21.0N 71.0W 22.4N 73.0W 23.5N 74.9W 24.5N 76.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 77.4W 25.0N 80.2W 25.2N 83.9W 26.1N 88.0W
BAMM 26.1N 78.6W 27.0N 79.9W 27.5N 82.1W 28.5N 84.4W
A98E 26.5N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.5N 82.1W 31.4N 80.8W
LBAR 25.2N 77.8W 26.5N 79.7W 27.8N 81.2W 29.4N 82.8W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 34KTS 39KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z run of the model guidance.Until there is a clear LLC well defined the model plots may not be good.I am only posting the runs in this initial stage for information only to the members.

Scott_inVA · #74 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:39 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like we aren't catching any breaks this season .

THIS IS GETTING OLD

Moments after one TC comes in, up pops the next Invest.

First runs take it through Islands and to EC FL coast.
Wouldn't evac just yet.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

southerngale · #75 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:42 pm

Steve wrote:Why do people appear to get irritated when there's a shot at development? That's why we're here, isn't it?

Steve

Well, in my case...I just need a little break. But if there's a system, I can't stay away and I neglect work and other things. Besides more activity generally keeps us all busier around here, I can't stop reading as much as I can and I look at sat loops until I'm watching the wobbles in my Chicken Noodle soup as well. Did that noodle wobble west, uh-oh...look out Mr. Chicken, you might get hit.

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:57 pm

18:00z Run of the model guidance.However as I said in this thread until a defined LLC is pinpointed the inicial point from the models will not be good.

Scott_inVA · #77 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:

18:00z Run of the model guidance.However as I said in this thread until a defined LLC is pinpointed the inicial point from the models will not be good.

These maps typically don't run many "globals". Right now those models have all been trending indicating: near miss, fish, gone

Gale...not speaking for anyone but me, I want at least one half day off!

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

#78 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:06 pm

I had a feeling a few days back this would eventually spin up just north of Hispanola.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

There is the steering currents. Looks like a rain event possible more. But i'm not going to go fully into what i think will happen for at least another 6 hours... when i can take another and better look at the synoptics.

Funny analog to this... JB said this went poof and would move west into the western carribean. I want to like him and his forecasts and i do appreciate his ability at long range forecasts. But his detailed up to the minute forcasts or not doing so well this year.
-Eric

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #79 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:09 pm

If this system forms then we will have 6 named storms before August. Which will make the record for the most storms before August with in the last 150 years. It has nice curve banding...With at least Gfs/Cmc models supporting closing off a center. They both take it west-northwestward for the next 24 to 30 hours. Then turn it northwestward by 36 to 42 hours. The cmc has a threat to the east coast...But the gfs turns it out to sea.

#80 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this system forms then we will have 6 named storms before August. Which will make the record for the most storms before August with in the last 150 years. It has nice curve banding...With at least Gfs/Cmc models supporting closing off a center. They both take it west-northwestward for the next 24 to 30 hours. Then turn it northwestward by 36 to 42 hours. The cmc has a threat to the east coast...But the gfs turns it out to sea.

Am I seeing double? I thought I just read this somewhere else...

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