90L Invest

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gkrangers

#21 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:57 am

Those day 5 numbers put it in the northeast GOM - central Florida.

Not to put any stock in them, but the storm should moves wnw across Florida and into the GOM, as an early general motion.
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PTrackerLA
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#22 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:01 am

I detect an ever so slight "twist" in the area circled in red. This is also where the convection continues to fire so I'll be watching the loops closely throughout the day.

Image
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#23 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:02 am

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1200 050721 0000 050721 1200 050722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 69.4W 22.5N 71.9W 23.9N 73.9W 24.8N 75.6W
BAMM 20.7N 69.4W 22.3N 72.8W 23.8N 75.6W 25.2N 78.0W
A98E 20.7N 69.4W 22.0N 71.8W 23.4N 74.0W 24.8N 76.2W
LBAR 20.7N 69.4W 22.2N 71.8W 23.5N 73.9W 24.4N 75.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1200 050723 1200 050724 1200 050725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 77.3W 25.6N 80.9W 26.1N 85.0W 27.4N 89.3W
BAMM 26.4N 79.9W 28.2N 82.3W 29.0N 84.2W 29.8N 86.4W
A98E 26.1N 78.5W 29.3N 81.5W 30.9N 82.4W 31.3N 80.2W
LBAR 25.2N 77.0W 26.2N 78.9W 27.4N 80.2W 28.4N 81.5W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 45KTS 43KTS
DSHP 42KTS 29KTS 32KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 69.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 64.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

miami nws has been talking about this are for a few days now and everything appears on schedule timing wise.
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#24 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:02 am

Looks like we've got another Bahama Mama :D
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#25 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:03 am

I haven't looked at it close yet, but given its general position, convection burst, and outflow, thats probably the place to stare for now. Looks pretty decent...
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#26 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:03 am

Joy. :roll:
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#27 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:04 am

gkrangers wrote:I haven't looked at it close yet, but given its general position, convection burst, and outflow, thats probably the place to stare for now. Looks pretty decent...


Yeah given the current structure that would be the logical location of any circulation center.
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gkrangers

#28 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:05 am

Image
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Steve
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#29 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:06 am

Why do people appear to get irritated when there's a shot at development? That's why we're here, isn't it?

Steve
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#30 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:06 am

What happened to the "lull" in the season some of you guys promised for the remainder of the month?
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#31 Postby alicia-w » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:11 am

are the plot points at 12 hour intervals?
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#32 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:12 am

This system has gotten a bit better organized. One the ULL dies off or move out he way it certainly has a shot a development......MGC
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Buck
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#33 Postby Buck » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:12 am

Steve wrote:Why do people appear to get irritated when there's a shot at development? That's why we're here, isn't it?

Steve


Amen, brother.
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:13 am

alicia-w wrote:are the plot points at 12 hour intervals?


12-24-36-48-72-96-120 hours intervals are the plots.
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#35 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:14 am

Looks like it has nice outflow for a poor system of its strength at the current time.
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#36 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:17 am

Exactly Steve. I was overseas for Cindy, Dennis, and 1/2 of Emily so I'm ready 8-) .
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#37 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:17 am

The models are in agreement, Florida/NE Gulf storm. So much for a break.
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#38 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:22 am

Model runs show NW turn into NW Florida. Impactweather.....private company....states the same.
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#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:22 am

I can tell all that it was a big rain producer and some gusty winds (I clocked 32 mph) as it passed thru here last night.
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#40 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:23 am

Model Map

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
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