90L Invest

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
gkrangers

#21 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:57 am

Those day 5 numbers put it in the northeast GOM - central Florida.

Not to put any stock in them, but the storm should moves wnw across Florida and into the GOM, as an early general motion.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#22 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:01 am

I detect an ever so slight "twist" in the area circled in red. This is also where the convection continues to fire so I'll be watching the loops closely throughout the day.

Image
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#23 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:02 am

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1200 050721 0000 050721 1200 050722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 69.4W 22.5N 71.9W 23.9N 73.9W 24.8N 75.6W
BAMM 20.7N 69.4W 22.3N 72.8W 23.8N 75.6W 25.2N 78.0W
A98E 20.7N 69.4W 22.0N 71.8W 23.4N 74.0W 24.8N 76.2W
LBAR 20.7N 69.4W 22.2N 71.8W 23.5N 73.9W 24.4N 75.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1200 050723 1200 050724 1200 050725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 77.3W 25.6N 80.9W 26.1N 85.0W 27.4N 89.3W
BAMM 26.4N 79.9W 28.2N 82.3W 29.0N 84.2W 29.8N 86.4W
A98E 26.1N 78.5W 29.3N 81.5W 30.9N 82.4W 31.3N 80.2W
LBAR 25.2N 77.0W 26.2N 78.9W 27.4N 80.2W 28.4N 81.5W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 45KTS 43KTS
DSHP 42KTS 29KTS 32KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 69.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 64.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

miami nws has been talking about this are for a few days now and everything appears on schedule timing wise.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#24 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:02 am

Looks like we've got another Bahama Mama :D
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#25 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:03 am

I haven't looked at it close yet, but given its general position, convection burst, and outflow, thats probably the place to stare for now. Looks pretty decent...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#26 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:03 am

Joy. :roll:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#27 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:04 am

gkrangers wrote:I haven't looked at it close yet, but given its general position, convection burst, and outflow, thats probably the place to stare for now. Looks pretty decent...


Yeah given the current structure that would be the logical location of any circulation center.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#28 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:05 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#29 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:06 am

Why do people appear to get irritated when there's a shot at development? That's why we're here, isn't it?

Steve
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#30 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:06 am

What happened to the "lull" in the season some of you guys promised for the remainder of the month?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
alicia-w
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 2:55 pm
Location: Tijeras, NM

#31 Postby alicia-w » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:11 am

are the plot points at 12 hour intervals?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5937
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#32 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:12 am

This system has gotten a bit better organized. One the ULL dies off or move out he way it certainly has a shot a development......MGC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

#33 Postby Buck » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:12 am

Steve wrote:Why do people appear to get irritated when there's a shot at development? That's why we're here, isn't it?

Steve


Amen, brother.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:13 am

alicia-w wrote:are the plot points at 12 hour intervals?


12-24-36-48-72-96-120 hours intervals are the plots.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#35 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:14 am

Looks like it has nice outflow for a poor system of its strength at the current time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#36 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:17 am

Exactly Steve. I was overseas for Cindy, Dennis, and 1/2 of Emily so I'm ready 8-) .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#37 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:17 am

The models are in agreement, Florida/NE Gulf storm. So much for a break.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#38 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:22 am

Model runs show NW turn into NW Florida. Impactweather.....private company....states the same.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:22 am

I can tell all that it was a big rain producer and some gusty winds (I clocked 32 mph) as it passed thru here last night.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#40 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:23 am

Model Map

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DESTRUCTION5 and 197 guests