Now batting: 90L

[Portastorm]

Did you guys see this little tidbit from Houston/Galveston NWS this morning?

DECIDED TO UP POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREEING ON THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA. BOTH INDICATE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTER WILL
DRIFT FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO TO SE PART OF THE COUNTRY AS A
WESTERLY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THINGS MAY GET
INTERESTING IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF

[BayouVenteux]

Run!!!...the superfluous thread cops are on their way with locks in hand!

[Hyperstorm]

That's an interesting discussion from Houston.

I realize the system has become slightly more concentrated this morning and UL conditions are improving as I type. If there's an area which would have to bear monitoring is just north of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. I see that the most forcing appears to be concentrated there, so that's the place we might find a surface low developing.

This will be a long season......

[Big-Iguana]

Coffee must not be working for many this morning, swear this is the 6th thread since after Cycloneye talked about it and the rain in PR.

[Thunder44]

I just looked at close-up visible images, there's no signs of a surface circulation. However it looks like on the water-vapor loop that the upper level low west of Jamaica is backing away, so it looks like upper-level winds maybe becoming more favorable.

[BayouVenteux]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

[Hyperstorm]

There's NO surface low developing right now. If it were to form later today, the potential is there for a surface low to develop just north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola. Tomorrow, the greatest forcing will shift to the Eastern Bahamas...

[PTrackerLA]

From the sounds of it this disturbance might be affecting the NW gulf early next week. There sure is alot of convection associated with the system right now, whether it can develop a circulation remains to be seen.

[Rainband]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

I have said many times how some of the Texas discussions get eager too early in the game. Just an observation I have made.

[KatDaddy]

New AFD Hou-Gal 6:50AM Update Excerpt:


WEAK HIGH BUILDS OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND MAY LEAD TO WESTERLY WINDS BUT HAVE FAVORED MORE VARIABLE
WORDING TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

[Huckster]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

I have said many times how some of the Texas discussions get eager too early in the game. Just an observation I have made.

If you think that's eager, you should read some of the discussions that come out of Jackson, MS during severe weather season. Sometimes I think they've got Weekly World News writing those discussions. Granted, there was a lot of severe weather in that area last spring, but I've noticed this doomsday style of writing for several years.

[gboudx]

New AFD Hou-Gal 6:50AM Update Excerpt:


WEAK HIGH BUILDS OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND MAY LEAD TO WESTERLY WINDS BUT HAVE FAVORED MORE VARIABLE
WORDING TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

If that verifies, you guys send it up this way for a bit of a respite from the 100 degree heat. And some rain would be nice too.

[Brent]

If you think that's eager, you should read some of the discussions that come out of Jackson, MS during severe weather season. Sometimes I think they've got Weekly World News writing those discussions. Granted, there was a lot of severe weather in that area last spring, but I've noticed this doomsday style of writing for several years.

LOL... you'd think every severe weather outbreak was going to wipe Jackson off the map.

[Stormcenter]

Different NWS office, different take. From this morning's New Orleans office AFD:

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY PULL TOWARD LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL FORCE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PULL NORTHWARD...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ERODES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...CREATING A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE AREA.

They may change their tune later this afternoon or tomorrow if things continue to get better organized in the Carribean. IMO

[Portastorm]

Coffee must not be working for many this morning, swear this is the 6th thread since after Cycloneye talked about it and the rain in PR.

Easy, easy ... all I wanted to do was shed a different light on the topic!

[tailgater]

Does anyone think this won't develop. Seems the only criteria needed this season is a thunderstorm and light winds.
I'm putting in a request for a 2 week period between storms. I'VE WORK TO DO!

[Steve]

Some of the upper charts from the models make this look like a "go". Like Cindy (except further north), 99L's southern remnants are butt-up against splitting TUTT energy. As the nose end of that trof should continue SW as it elongates and splits, ridging should build in right behind it and over the remnants. Prog your favorite upper air chart for the details out from 72-108 hours. Looks like a wave crossing FL, into the NC Gulf maybe with designs between Morgan City and Corpus if anything gets developed. The water is warm enough but no longer anomalously so. Chances of eventual landfall would be perhaps next Monday.

Should provide for another interesting weekend. Low end - wave energy. High end? Who knows!

Steve

[Patrick99]

Do my eyes deceive me, or does this disturbance have banding features to the north?

The Miami AFDs are almost the polar opposite...with them, they are always writing something to the effect of "models take it somewhere in our vicinity 5-7 days down the road....but whatever, we'll wait and see"

[Hurricaneman]

It could easily become a depression in a few days

[Mattie]

Rainband - that wasn't a Texas discussion - that was a New Orleans one.