SouthernWx wrote:mike18xx wrote:SouthernWx wrote:Even in the mid-19th century, we would know if a powerful hurricane traversed those waters. There was plenty of shipping activity, plus weatherwise folks living on those Caribbean islands that it would be documented.
They'd know only if
they were HIT. Otherwise, a cat-5 hurricane is often no larger (and sometimes is smaller) than a much weaker storm, and is merely more intense in a very small area -- you literally need to be directly under the eyewall in the right-side quadrant to observe wind damage (if on land), or be in the eye at the peak intensity (to, say, record a pressure under 930mb or some such). A ship missing maximum eyewall winds by only a few miles could observe cat-3 conditions in what is actually a cat-5 storm, and easily assume they're experiencing the worst of it.
Additional factors:
* Cat-5 status typically doesn't last very long, sometimes only a few hours.
* Cat-5 status normally occurs well away from land.
* Cat-5s are more likely to sink shipping than weaker storms (thereby robbing posterity of a vessel's recorded data on the storm).
Son, I'm not going to waste my time arguing. I've already told you about the Hurdat project...and it's accuracy regarding past hurricanes back to 1851. If you are calling me a liar, then your also dissing many of the world's leading authorities on Atlantic hurricanes.
I've researched hurricanes with a dedicated passion since 1975; especially hurricanes of the past. Ask the folks on this board (vbhoutex, Cycloneye, HurricaneDude, Scott_inVA, etc) who've known me since 2000.....I don't post B.S. They know my ability and my competence....if I post something, you can bank on it.
If a 130 kt hurricane had occurred in areas with enough TCHP during July since 1851....we would know it (just as we know about the 1926 cat-4).
Check my website and see my competence....ask Storm2k veterans about my credentials and reputation. I know what I'm posting about friend.....if I didn't know it, I wouldn't post it.
PW
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane
Perry,
I tend to agree with you on this, that the revised Hurdat is generally reliable, though we mostly have to take it for what it is, estimates. Also, there are not going to be many areas in July with the TCHP capable of supporting a cat. 5 hurricane; that fact alone makes the existence of such storms unlikely. That being said, it's very hard to prove a negative. I believe that we can say, with a great deal of confidence, that there
probably were not any cat. 5 hurricanes in July since 1851, and likely only one other cat. 4 hurricane in July before this year. But, we cannot say that there definitely weren't any such storms, any more than the people doing the Re-analysis work could say that they know for sure the absolute intensity of every single hurricane they've reviewed. However, I will say that I doubt there were any other cat. 4's or a 5 in July. I simply don't recall any hurricane in the database that could be a candidate. Now, that being said, I would like to point out one thing I see as a possible weakness in our historical record from 1851-1900, at the very least. How many cat. 5 hurricanes have we seen in the Atlantic basin since 1950? As of now, I can find
Dog, 1950, 160 kts
Easy, 1951, 140 kts
Janet, 1955, 150 kts
Cleo, 1958, 140 kts
Donna, 1960, 140 kts
Carla, 1961, 150 kts
Hattie, 1961, 140 kts
Beulah, 1967, 140 kts
Camille, 1969, 165 kts
Edith, 1971, 140 kts
Anita, 1977, 150 kts
David, 1979, 150 kts
Allen, 1980, 165 kts
Gilbert, 1988, 160 kts
Andrew, 1992, 150 kts
Mitch, 1998, 155 kts
Isabel, 2003, 145 kts
Ivan, 2004, 145 kts
Just for the sake of argument, and I think this is probably true, let's assume that several of these storms weren't really cat. 5's. Let's assume, just for this argument, that only Janet, Donna, Camille, David, Allen, Gilbert, Andrew, Mitch, Isabel, and Ivan ever reached cat. 5 strength, again, just to be extra conservative. That's still 10 cat. 5's since 1950. There are no cat. 5's in Hurdat in the period from 1851-1914, which is the point where the re-analysis is completed so far. Do we really believe that only the 1886 Texas hurricane at 135 kts and the 1856 Louisiana storm at 130 kts were the only storms that came close, and no storms actually reached cat. 5 strength? My guess is that when the 1920's re-analysis is completed, we'll still only have one hurricane, the 1928 Puerto Rico to Lake Okeechobee hurricane (I think "San Felipe") listed as a cat. 5 in the period from 1851 to 1929. I think that there probably were other storms that reached cat. 5 strength, but we cannot say so with complete certainty. Which brings me back to my point, that the available evidence indicates that there were no other cat. 4's or 5 in any July's since 1851, and since we have to rely on what we know and not make assumptions based on what "might have been," it's prudent to say that there are no known examples of other storms in July as strong as Dennis and Emily, and certainly no other examples of two hurricanes that strong during the same July. But none of us omniscient, so the possibility exists that a storm might have slipped through or have been underestimated (more likely).
