Has this season Shocked you

[Astro_man92]

i had to stop and think about to think about it but i'm a 6

[Astro_man92]

sorry i didn't put a 0 in there i thought i did but i guess i didn't

sorry

but if it didn't shock you. you problebly don't care

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not surprized...This is a more normal pattern for the Atlantic then we have been seeing over the last 50 years.

[HURAKAN]

Is kind of shocking having 5 TS, 2 H, & 2 MH, before August. Unheard and unbelievable! I give it a 9.

[SouthernWx]

Shocked....by the activity? No...but the extreme intensity of Dennis and Emily are beyond stunning.

Before 2005, there's NEVER been a 150 mph hurricane during the month of July...NEVER!! In the 1851-2004 period of record there's no record of a July Atlantic basin hurricane with winds stronger than 120 kt (140 mph)...and that 1926 cat-4 is the ONLY July hurricane stronger than 125 mph.

Now within the past two weeks, we've witnessed not just one....but TWO 150+ mph monsters. It's beyond comprehension; unprecidated....and caught me completely off guard. Folks, I've researched Atlantic basin hurricanes for thirty years, and honestly did NOT believe a hurricane of that intensity was possible during July; especially NOT during the first half of the month.

Seeing such intense hurricanes this early....over a month until the normal BEGINNING of major hurricane season in the Atlantic basin (Aug 10th) makes me extremely nervous about what is to come in August and September. I won't be surprised to see a maxi-hurricane even stronger than Dennis and Emily....a record breaking intense cat-5 with central pressure lower than 888 mb will not surprise me. I also now believe there's a better than 50% chance of breaking the 1933 record of 21 named cyclones. In fact, if another tropical storm forms before August 1st, we'll be in uncharted waters....because there has NEVER been more than five named storms before the end of July...NEVER during the 154 year period of record.

This is incredible what we're witnessing in July 2005.....it's totally unbelievable....

PW

my sites:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Souternwx there is so much to learn that we have not learned yet. Who would of thought we would see a South Atlantic hurricane??? Who would of thought we would see two tropical cyclones form in one year down there. January tropical storm then the March hurricane.

We have much to learn...

[CharleySurvivor]

Totally shock!

From living in FL and having gone thru 6 weeks of misery last season, I never expected it would start this early.

[x-y-no]

I gave it a 7. I thought we might have two or three systems before the end of July, but I sure didn't think we'd have a major in July - let alone two majors before July was halfway over.

Come to think of it ... maybe 7 was too low.

[beachbum_al]

I gave it a 5. Shocked by the number and the intensity of the storms this early in the year.

[SouthernWx]

What is happening now is IMO not natural.....it's not just a "freak" of nature. Something is going on which has thrown nature out of balance. You don't go 150 years without a 150 mph cane in July...then suddenly see two occur in less than a month.

[Astro_man92]

Souternwx there is so much to learn that we have not learned yet. Who would of thought we would see a South Atlantic hurricane??? Who would of thought we would see two tropical cyclones form in one year down there. January tropical storm then the March hurricane.

We have much to learn...

Son, I was researching hurricanes over a decade before you were born; my first chase of a major hurricane occurred in 1979. I've forgotten more about Atlantic hurricanes than most folks will ever know...and if you'd told me on June first I'd witness TWO 150-155 mph hurricanes before mid-August I'd have said you were crazy.

Take it from a hurricane expert with three decades experience: what is happening now is IMO not natural.....it's not just a "freak" of nature. Something is going on which has thrown nature out of balance. You don't go 150 years without a 150 mph cane in July...then suddenly see two occur in less than a month.

Until now, I never believed in global warming or the greenhouse effect. Tonight I do...and have grave fears that the Atlantic hurricanes we call "incredible" today may be seen as "average" in a couple decades...

PW

i've heard some people say that global warming is the culprate but then again. what hasn't been afected by global warming and honestly i'm sick of hearing about global warming!

so what i think that is saying is that global warming(which is caused by us i guess) is warming up the earth which is in a way freaking nature out and will cause not only more storms but more intense storms

[mike18xx]

Shocked....by the activity? No...but the extreme intensity of Dennis and Emily are beyond stunning. Before 2005, there's NEVER been a 150 mph hurricane during the month of July...NEVER!!

It's more true to say that no aircraft has sampled such a reading in July before. And remember: We've only had 40 years' worth of satellite imagery giving us an idea of which storms would be the most interesting to fly into.

[Lowpressure]

Early intensity is biggest surprise so I go 6. It will go to 9 if there are no more named storms this year! Which I highly doubt.

[Ixolib]

I suppose it depends on the definition of "shocked". Where's Bill Clinton when I need him.

But, I used the word "impressed" instead of shocked and gave it a 9 on your scale. 5 for 5 (well, almost - if you count Cindy) is pretty impressive.

[Big-Iguana]

I'm wondering how it can be shocking when they've been pushing global warming and the effects on climate change for several years now?

I suppose if you never read over any climatology data it may be shocking. The Brazillian hurricane should of tipped off even the weather neophytes that the tropical seasons are going to be anything "but" normal for awhile.

Denial doesn't change the weather and ignorance sure can win you a Darwin award. So it's best not to be taken by suprise, if you have longevity in mind.

[SouthernWx]

It's more true to say that no aircraft has sampled such a reading in July before. And remember: We've only had 40 years' worth of satellite imagery giving us an idea of which storms would be the most interesting to fly into.

Afraid I'll have to disagree with you on that...

See, I know from research the only areas of the Atlantic basin with enough oceanic heat content to support a powerful hurricane in July is the Caribbean Sea, portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and SW Atlantic Ocean adjacent to south Florida and the Bahamas. Even in the mid-19th century, we would know if a powerful hurricane traversed those waters. There was plenty of shipping activity, plus weatherwise folks living on those Caribbean islands that it would be documented.

The AOML/ HRD "Hurdat" project has a pretty good idea of all Atlantic basin hurricane intensities as far back as 1851....especially hurricanes occurring just offshore the U.S. southeast and Gulf coasts...and in the Caribbean. If there had ever been a hurricane of Dennis/ Emily magnitude during July, friend...we'd know.

This has never happened before...at least not in the past 155 years...never!

PW

[Andrew92]

Perry, I fully respect and value your opinions on this board. However, I still disagree about the global warming issue. While yes, the Atlantic is undoubtedly in uncharted waters, if global warming was one of the main reasons for an active season, I'd like to think that, for starters, either the EPAC or the WPAC would be more active than they have been in 2005.

So far in 2005, the EPAC's numbers are 5/1/0 (though the NHC suggests that Eugene may have briefly hit hurricane intensity in one discussion). The majority of those storms have only lasted a few days, only to succumb to cooler waters early in their lives. Only Adrian, which moved northeast, was able to officially reach hurricane strength.

The WPAC has been little more active. So far, there have been five tropical storms there as well. While four of them became typhoons, and two of them super-typhoons, I still would like to see significantly more activity over there before thinking global warming is the culprit. Why? In 2004 at this very time, already 9 tropical storms had formed, 8 of which became typhoons. Four of those typhoons became super-typhoons.

Now, if we were to look at the Atlantic and WPAC last year after this date, then perhaps we would have a case for global warming. As we all know, 15 storms formed in the Atlantic. 19 more formed in the WPAC as well. And 9 more formed after this date last year in the EPAC (Celia had just formed into a TS in fact on July 19, 2004). However, I have not researched what happened in the other basins after this date.

However, this year, while the Atlantic is shockingly active (I rate it a 9 out of 10, BTW), I'd like to see more activity in the EPAC and WPAC before concluding that global warming is a main culprit.

I still enjoy your analyses though Perry, even if I disagree. Keep them up! And for all of what I have said about global warming and both sides of the Pacific, I may have been totally out of my mind.

-Andrew92

[EDR1222]

I am also surprised by the early intensity. Although, many of the experts warned about the above normal sst's before the season even started. And some people here on the forum also mentioned that it appeared everything was about a month ahead of schedule. Obviously that has proven to be the case. Dennis and Emily really seemed like August storms.

With all that being said, everything seemed to really change last year, even though we have actually been in an increased activity period since 1995.

The return of a higher frequency in landfalling storms and more intense hurricanes and less recurvature appears to be the type of pattern that we are in now and could be in for the next 10-20 years according to the experts.

Obviously each season is going to be different, but really if you think about it, this season seems to be picking up where last season left off.

[Big-Iguana]

Global Warming Expected to Worsen Hurricanes

Study Finds Increase in Intensity Brought on by Warmer Waters

Jul. 9, 2005 - In Florida, they know just how powerful hurricanes can be: Over the last year, they have been reminded more than they care to count.

But it could get even worse.

According to a recent study, hurricanes will become even more intense because of global warming -- the idea that greenhouse gases are heating the Earth's atmosphere and oceans.

"Those storms that do occur are going to have the potential to be significantly stronger in a warmer climate," said Tom Knutson, a climate modeler for the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, and the lead author of the study that used one the world's most powerful computers to simulate 1,300 virtual storms.

Hurricanes get their strength from warm ocean water, so higher water temperatures mean more energy for the storms.

"As a storm is moving across the ocean, it's evaporating water from the ocean's surface, and that's supplying fuel for the storm," Knutson said.

'Monster Storms'

Knutson's study found that within 80 years, the average hurricane strength will increase by half a category in the five-step scale of destructive power.

"It could be the difference between, say, a roof staying on a house and the roof being ripped off," said Robert Tuleya of the Center for Oceanography at Old Dominion University.

Average wind speed could jump 15 miles an hour, rainfall two inches and storm surges several feet.

"In our simulations, you end up with some of these really monster storms," Knutson said.

The study says nothing about how global warming might affect the frequency of hurricanes. The researchers say that is next on their agenda.

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/print?id=923864

A compendium of hurricane information
Hurricanes & Climate Change

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/links/hurricanes.htm

NCAR Climate Expert: Hurricanes To Intensify as Earth Warms.
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/trenberth.shtml

Hurricanes and global warming
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin ... arming.pdf

[SouthernWx]

[quote="Astro_man92"]