JB this morn....

[jlauderdal]

>>Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

Personally, I think as Mods, you guys should be above that kind of stuff.

As for bias, the bias was on the North Central, North Eastern and Southwestern FL coasts for the season. Unfortunately people try as hard as possible to twist everything Bastardi says into a bash thereby trying to make him look bad. Problem is, it's usually the people doing the bashing that end up being seen through like plastic wrap by those of us who actualyl pay attention to these things. JMO

Steve

I think they are allowed to have opinions like the rest of us. I also think saying that things will get active on the east coast in late july and august and sept is not a big newsflash since that is where a majority of the action is in those months.

[Steve]

>>I think they are allowed to have opinions like the rest of us.

Sure they are. But I can't tell you how many times I've gotten a PM about an opinion when it was borderline. I try to keep things as honest as possible even when I'm in the throes of battle with someone over an issue. But if the idea is to keep the discourse above board, it should start somewhere lest the board descend into a chaos festival.

Steve

[jax]

>>Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

Personally, I think as Mods, you guys should be above that kind of stuff.

As for bias, the bias was on the North Central, North Eastern and Southwestern FL coasts for the season. Unfortunately people try as hard as possible to twist everything Bastardi says into a bash thereby trying to make him look bad. Problem is, it's usually the people doing the bashing that end up being seen through like plastic wrap by those of us who actualyl pay attention to these things. JMO

Steve

I think they are allowed to have opinions like the rest of us. I also think saying that things will get active on the east coast in late july and august and sept is not a big newsflash since that is where a majority of the action is in those months.

a lot of the times... it's not simply an opinion... it's borderline slander...
The guy has vast experience, education and knowledge... why attack?

like my mama used to say... if you don't have anything nice to say
about a person... keep your moth shut.

"Lindaloo wrote:
He has an east coast bias. Anyone know why?


Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

MW"

[Steve H.]

Well, I can tell you one thing, there's a nice looking wave in the Atlantic at about 12N/38W. This has excellent satellite sig and is a candidate for a bare watch.

[MWatkins]

He has an east coast bias. Anyone know why?

Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

MW

Aw Mike, he'd NEVER try to use FEAR to sell his products, would he?

maybe he's using DATA to support his theory... hmmm....

There are many, many people who are members of this board who have made the same prediction, that Emily would be near South TX/Northern MX at the same time or earlier than when Emily was near Jamaica:

Josephine1996, CapianCrunch, Scott in VA, the Brownsville NWS office last Friday, there are more I am sure but these are the ones I found…

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68186

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68068

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67934

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68024

Heck, Vortex made this call last Tuesday when Emily was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67751

However, still waiting for 99L, or “Franklin” to be a problem down here in FL then later in the week for the EC.

Oh, I guess that didn’t develop…not sure what data went into that prediction

And making the point that the majority of the subscribers who watch the video update are EC residents is unverifiable unless Accuweather makes those figures public, which I seriously doubt they will. But when you consider where the vast majority of the hurricane-threatened residents of the US live, it's not that far fetched.

Sorry...I am not just going to sit idle while that corporation continues to make unfounded swipes at the Hurricane Center, then watch them fail to hold to their own standard. Didn't JB, a week ago Sunday, call for Emily to make a run up the East coast?

Good thing the NHC didn't make such a prediction...Accuweather would already have 5 press releases out.

Trust me, I am all about data. But of course, JB's predictions are not verifiable under any established meteorological standard. So I guess we'll just have to take his word that he produces accurate forecasts while the NHC verifies theirs.

MW

[jax]

He has an east coast bias. Anyone know why?

Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

MW

Aw Mike, he'd NEVER try to use FEAR to sell his products, would he?

maybe he's using DATA to support his theory... hmmm....

There are many, many people who are members of this board who have made the same prediction, that Emily would be near South TX/Northern MX at the same time or earlier than when Emily was near Jamaica:

Josephine1996, CapianCrunch, Scott in VA, the Brownsville NWS office last Friday, there are more I am sure but these are the ones I found…

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68186

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68068

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67934

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68024

Heck, Vortex made this call last Tuesday when Emily was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67751

However, still waiting for 99L, or “Franklin” to be a problem down here in FL then later in the week for the EC.

Oh, I guess that didn’t develop…not sure what data went into that prediction

And making the point that the majority of the subscribers who watch the video update are EC residents is unverifiable unless Accuweather makes those figures public, which I seriously doubt they will. But when you consider where the vast majority of the hurricane-threatened residents of the US live, it's not that far fetched.

Sorry...I am not just going to sit idle while that corporation continues to make unfounded swipes at the Hurricane Center, then watch them fail to hold to their own standard. Didn't JB, a week ago Sunday, call for Emily to make a run up the East coast?

Good thing the NHC didn't make such a prediction...Accuweather would already have 5 press releases out.

Trust me, I am all about data. But of course, JB's predictions are not verifiable under any established meteorological standard. So I guess we'll just have to take his word that he produces accurate forecasts while the NHC verifies theirs.

MW

you are trying to change the subject....
you accused him of making an eastcoast prediction because he
had paying clients there...

[MWatkins]

you are trying to change the subject....you accused him of making an eastcoast prediction because he had paying clients there...

I merely asked a question. I made no such statement.

But your point, that he backs up his forecasts with data, is what generated my reply.

Look, there is a Cat 3 growing rapidly as it approaches the coast. So I think I should spend my time and effort from here on tonight dealing with that storm.

I think you know where I stand and we can disagree on the merits of accuweather's predictions perhaps in the off-season. I realize now I shouldn't have gotten things started with that comment and I will go ahead and leave it alone.

Sorry to any one who may have otherwise spent time reading a productive post. My comments should have been held for later when we can have a better and more worthwhile discussion.

MW

[Steve]

>>Sorry...I am not just going to sit idle while that corporation continues to make unfounded swipes at the Hurricane Center, then watch them fail to hold to their own standard. Didn't JB, a week ago Sunday, call for Emily to make a run up the East coast

Not that I recall, though I don't read the columns anymore. I thought he'd stuck with a balance of Gilbert and Allen and later centered the target somewhere around 40-50 miles south of Brownsville. He said that 99L would shear off NE with a piece trying to bust the trof and make a run at the SE Coast (not up it) if it could. That was a legitimate heads-up as it appears some of the remnants from the wave that helped spawn 99L look an awful lot like Cindy did when she was approaching/butting up against a splitting trof to her west. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Stay tuned. FWIW, I completely agree with you about the Accuweather Corporation and agree with x-y-no about the snipes on the NHC who is the final authority on this stuff (and having a damn good year IMHO).

Steve

[Air Force Met]

>>He also said that Emily would get to 940 before landfall...

I didn't hear him say that at all. I heard him say that was the lowest he could see her getting.

>>He has an east coast bias. Anyone know why?

He said his updated landfall intensity forecast would shift the largest threat to the east coast of the US (presumably due to the SSTA's) but said he wasn't saying the Gulf would be closed down for the rest of the year.

Steve

From yesterday mornings post: "The call is a pressure fall to 940 or below before landfall."

[amawea]

I agree with every post that Steve and Jax made on this thread. And my difference of opinion from those that bash J.B. is far and wide. I like the guy, think he's an excellent forecaster, and is as accurate as most of the meteorologist out there. I have e-mailed him a few times and he has always responded with polite and quite accurate information. Two specific forecast questions I asked him about verified a week later. Like I said I like the guy.
Amawea

[Lindaloo]

He has an east coast bias. Anyone know why?

Because....that's where most of the subscribers live?

MW

Well, how fair is that!

[Steve]

>>From yesterday mornings post: "The call is a pressure fall to 940 or below before landfall."

Cool. Thanks for the clarification. Due to conflicts I have with Accuweather, I don't pay for the columns anymore. But today's video did say something like his base was 940mb so let's see what happens.

Good call in any event. I still like my 930mb baseline better though.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

I agree with every post that Steve and Jax made on this thread. And my difference of opinion from those that bash J.B. is far and wide. I like the guy, think he's an excellent forecaster, and is as accurate as most of the meteorologist out there. I have e-mailed him a few times and he has always responded with polite and quite accurate information. Two specific forecast questions I asked him about verified a week later. Like I said I like the guy.
Amawea

Good points. His problem is he sticks his neck out WAY too early and he is very slow to back off a prediction. He is also very bad on admitting his faults...and quick to remind of his successes. He has faults...but he is very good at what he does...and his critics on this board are also just as biased when they ONLY remember his falures and never congradulate his successes. He called a sub 940 storm as Emily was coming off the coast yesterday morning...and that was a BOLD prediction. It is doubtful his critics will remember or congradulate him on the call.

It's a two way street. We have to be fair...and I think him getting his hat handled to him by the NHC over Dennis helped him a little...it was a good thing to happen to a good forecaster. We all need it every once in a while.

[Lindaloo]

you are trying to change the subject....
you accused him of making an eastcoast prediction because he
had paying clients there...

No one is trying to change the subject. IMO, he was spot on. Another thing, "jax" I can voice my opinion about Bastardi if I want to, whether you like it or not. No one said anything bad about him. Because when you make predictions you will eventually get one right, correct? A hit on the east coast?

[Air Force Met]

>>From yesterday mornings post: "The call is a pressure fall to 940 or below before landfall."

Cool. Thanks for the clarification. Due to conflicts I have with Accuweather, I don't pay for the columns anymore. But today's video did say something like his base was 940mb so let's see what happens.

Good call in any event. I still like my 930mb baseline better though.

Steve

Yeah...at the rate this thing is going...that might be too high. Good thing it's not aiming for Houston...or NOLA and doing this.

[Steve]

>>No one is trying to change the subject. IMO, he was spot on.

Eh, that's highly debatable.

>>Another thing, "jax" I can voice my opinion about Bastardi if I want to, whether you like it or not. No one said anything bad about him. Because when you make predictions you will eventually get one right, correct? A hit on the east coast?

That's not a fair assessment of the discussion, it's just another attack. There are few here that have the credentials to pick fights with Bastardi. He lost credibility with Dennis (comeuppance even, deservedly so IMHO). But the wannabe weather weenies are always out in force to bash him when they can. I'm not saying this about Mike, because I like him. But what do you mean by "Beacause when you make predictions, you will eventually get one right, correct? A hit on the east coast?" It was specifically mentioned that the impact zone would be shifting to that part of the country per his updated landfall forecast due out on Friday. You're making it sound like kindergarten there Linda. FWIW, Bastardi earned his stripes with me for the calls on Cindy, Isidore and Lili where he outperformed the NHC and the majority of the posters on the web. Of course I followed along a little more intently since the potential threat was in my backyard.

I'm not going to defend him from fair criticism. But I've been around long enough to sniff out an attack or some unfair bias.

Steve

[Lindaloo]

And that is your opinion of Bastardi, Steve. Not mine. I believe even in kindergarten we were allowed opinions, right? I have NO faith in Bastardi but if you do, hey, that is fantastic. But everytime someone, even joking, says anything negative about Bastardi a few people start coming out of the woodwork "sniffing out attacks."
That was not my intention. I just wondered WHY he has an east coast bias.

Voicing an opinion and being confrontational are two totally different things.

[Steve]

>>That was not my intention. I just wondered WHY he has an east coast bias.

And the snide remarks were right behind the question. I tried to answer that the deviation scale had Louisiana, MS/AL/NWFL and SW FL as the highest impact zones as averaged to normal in his initial forecast. He did have Texas and Carolina both above 8 on his scale. So it's not a real surprise. But LA/MS/AL/NW FL and SW FL were where the specific biases were. Now with the Gulf losing some heat and a nice corridor of SSTA's heading out from the Caribbean toward the east coast, it makes sense to come to the conclusion that the mid-Atlantic and SE US Coast would likely see there fair share of storms as the summer pattern evolves.

As far as those coming out of the woodwork to defend Bastardi, most of us don't claim to have all the answers unlike many of his detractors. You the mods have allowed a culture here to fester where some believe they get street credit for bashing Joe B. And it's pretty blatant. Some of us find that to be amateurish and will say so. I've butted heads with numerous people on this very site over their mischaracterizations of him when I saw something completely different. And I've backed up other mets and posters when the same thing happened to them. It's just a lot rarer. I'm here to learn and exchange ideas. But there's a lot of misinformation passed out like candy when it comes to Bastardi. That's all I'm going to say on this thread.

Steve

[Tommedic]

As I am not a paying member of Accuweather, I only get JB's statements that are posted here. I have learned to respect the forecasts and opinions of many members of this board as much or more than his(at least those posted here). But, as for me, I am more interested in following Emily and looking back in November as to who predicted best this season. IMVHO

[Downdraft]

I don't think it's to much to ask that a company that wants you to "buy" their products post verified results of those forecasts by their forecasters. Maybe I'm missing it but most of the reliable mets on here, and the NHC posts that data why doesn't Accuweather? Or for that matter, maybe they do and I'm missing it. Just a thought.