H Emily Recon Reports

[StormsAhead]

Vortex...956 mb

721
URNT12 KNHC 191950
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:33:40Z
B. 24 deg 11 min N
095 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2724 m
D. 55 kt
E. 140 deg 040 nm
F. 230 deg 090 kt
G. 137 deg 012 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 10 C/ 3054 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2005A EMILY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 17:57:20 Z
EYE WALL RAGGED ON RADAR

[clfenwi]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

[Normandy]

Pressure is still dropping...def still rapidly strengthening.

[Lowpressure]

That is more in line with expectations, good call on SE quad. She is starting to get serious.

[Brent]

956...

[clfenwi]

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #307
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 94KT (108.1mph 174.1km/h) In NE Quadrant At 17:57:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 84.6KT (97.3mph 156.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: EYEWALL RAGGED ON RADAR
Date/Time of Recon Report: 19/19:33:40Z
Position of the center: 24° 11' N 095° 21' W (24.2°N 95.3°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2724m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 55 KT (63.25MPH 101.9km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 040nm (46miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 090KT (103.5mph 166.7km/h) From 230°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012nm (13.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 137°
Minimum pressure: 956 mb (28.23in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 18nm (20.7 mi 33.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Lowpressure]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

[Normandy]

Big eye also.

[jkt21787]

Big eye also.

Not as big as the 60 mile one we had yesterday!

[clfenwi]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

I take it you thought that eyewall ob was the eye ob...

[gkrangers]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

Not when you are expecting low to mid 950's from the eyewall ob you aren't...

Yeah, he's probably confused.

That dropsonde was in the EYEWALL..not the EYE itself.

Also, that 962 is only a 6mb differential between the eye and eyewall..so they may have dropped it near the inside of the wall, maybe missing the strongest part.

[Normandy]

Big eye also.

Not as big as the 60 mile one we had yesterday!

True...but I wouldnt expect it to go through an ERC anytime soon with that eye.

[Lowpressure]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

I take it you thought that eyewall ob was the eye ob...

Yes, sorry if I was unclear with that post. Good catch. Should have caught that with the wind speeds indicated.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number:14
Time transmitted: 1951Z
Position: 24.2 North // 95.4 West
Sea Level Pressure: 956 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 8 knots // 290
925 millibar height: 291 meters
925 millibar winds: 9 knots // 295
850 millibar height: 1036 meters
850 millibar winds: 8 knots // 285
700 millibar height: 2725 meters
700 millibar winds 48 knots // 170
EYE

[wxwatcher91]

pressure's down more but wind speed the same...

my forecast:

4pm cdt: 100mph
6pm cdt: 105mph
8pm cdt: 105mph
10mp cdt: 110mph
12am cdt: 115mph
2am cdt: 120mph
4am cdt: 120mph
6am cdt: 115mph (inland)
8am cdt: 100mph
10am cdt: 85mph
12pm cdt: 75mph
2pm cdt: 65mph
4pm cdt: 60mph

[gkrangers]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

I take it you thought that eyewall ob was the eye ob...

Yes, sorry if I was unclear with that post. Good catch. Should have caught that with the wind speeds indicated.

It says EYEWALL in capital letters, too.

[Lowpressure]

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

Then what are you expecting from the eye? 940's??? Pressure dropped quickly, but not that quickly..

The 956 we just got.

I take it you thought that eyewall ob was the eye ob...

Yes, sorry if I was unclear with that post. Good catch. Should have caught that with the wind speeds indicated.

It says EYEWALL in capital letters, too.

Easy on me, I saw 962 and was expecting 950's. It still had to be close to the inner wall to be that close. You are corect EYEWALL should have clued me in.

[StormsAhead]

pressure's down more but wind speed the same...

my forecast:

4pm cdt: 100mph
6pm cdt: 105mph
8pm cdt: 105mph
10mp cdt: 110mph
12am cdt: 115mph
2am cdt: 120mph
4am cdt: 120mph
6am cdt: 115mph (inland)
8am cdt: 100mph
10am cdt: 85mph
12pm cdt: 75mph
2pm cdt: 65mph
4pm cdt: 60mph

We don't know whether the wind speed changed or not, because the highest winds are in the NE quad and the plane hasn't been there since the 959 mb. However, there is a good chance that they increased, since winds in the SE quad are now 90 knots.

[clfenwi]

LowPressure: No need to apologize, honest mistake. It's just that you had me confused after you acknowledged that it was SE quad observation...When it ocurred to me that you probably didn't entirely realize that it was an eyewall I whacked my post and redrafted it... gkrangers, however, was quick enough to quote it...

...enough of that though... back to the recon...

[wxwatcher91]

I thought they said NE quad... oh sorry that was from the last VDM 2 hours ago