H Emily Recon Reports

clfenwi · #121 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:43 pm

SUPPLEMENTAL VORTEX

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #307
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 94KT (108.1mph 174.1km/h) In NE Quadrant At 17:57:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 84.6KT (97.3mph 156.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: RAGGED EYE SHAPE ON RADAR (Report Time: 19/1839Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 24.2N 94.9W 094KT (108.1MPH 174.1km/h) [17:30:00Z to 17:57:10Z]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 45KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h) @ 120°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 24.0N 95.3W 085KT (97.75MPH 157.4km/h) [18:06:20Z to 18:27:30Z]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 25KT (28.75MPH 46.3km/h) @ 320°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 25.2N 93.6W 700mb Height @ 3123m 10°C 7°C 055KT (63.25MPH 101.9 km/h) @ 140°
I02 25.1N 93.8W 700mb Height @ 3109m 10°C 6°C 060KT (69MPH 111.1 km/h) @ 140°
I03 24.9N 94.0W 700mb Height @ 3091m 8°C 8°C 062KT (71.3MPH 114.8 km/h) @ 130°
I04 24.7N 94.2W 700mb Height @ 3064m 8°C 8°C 072KT (82.8MPH 133.3 km/h) @ 140°
I05 24.5N 94.4W 700mb Height @ 3026m 8°C 8°C 081KT (93.15MPH 150.0 km/h) @ 130°
I06 24.3N 94.6W 700mb Height @ 2971m 11°C 10°C 072KT (82.8MPH 133.3 km/h) @ 140°
I07 24.2N 94.8W 700mb Height @ 2855m 8°C 8°C 092KT (105.8MPH 170.4 km/h) @ 150°
O01 23.9N 95.3W 700mb Height @ 2885m 12°C 12°C 082KT (94.3MPH 151.9 km/h) @ 320°
O02 23.8N 95.5W 700mb Height @ 2983m 12°C 10°C 048KT (55.2MPH 88.9 km/h) @ 310°
O03 23.6N 95.7W 700mb Height @ 3025m 11°C 9°C 047KT (54.05MPH 87.0 km/h) @ 330°
O04 23.4N 95.9W 700mb Height @ 3047m 8°C 8°C 049KT (56.35MPH 90.8 km/h) @ 330°
O05 23.2N 96.1W 700mb Height @ 3077m 9°C 9°C 042KT (48.3MPH 77.8 km/h) @ 320°
O06 23.0N 96.3W 700mb Height @ 3089m 9°C 9°C 036KT (41.4MPH 66.7 km/h) @ 300°
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

Thunder44 · #122 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:43 pm

Wouldn't be suprised to see this make Cat 4 before landfall, if the pressure drop continues.

StormsAhead · #123 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:48 pm

445
SXXX50 KNHC 191847
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191846
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 18 KNHC
1837 2247N 09617W 03048 0087 280 035 090 070 037 03143 0000000000
1837. 2247N 09615W 03047 0087 277 036 090 066 038 03142 0000000000
1838 2247N 09612W 03047 0085 279 039 092 066 039 03140 0000000000
1838. 2247N 09610W 03049 0084 280 041 092 068 041 03141 0000000000
1839 2248N 09608W 03048 0082 282 041 094 076 043 03139 0000000000
1839. 2248N 09605W 03048 0081 284 046 090 088 047 03138 0000000000
1840 2248N 09603W 03046 0080 283 046 086 086 047 03135 0000000000
1840. 2248N 09601W 03048 0079 284 044 088 088 046 03136 0000000000
1841 2248N 09559W 03048 0078 283 044 090 088 044 03134 0000000000
1841. 2248N 09556W 03046 0076 281 044 086 086 044 03131 0000000000
1842 2249N 09554W 03048 0076 280 043 086 086 043 03132 0000000000
1842. 2249N 09552W 03048 0076 276 041 086 086 042 03132 0000000000
1843 2249N 09549W 03048 0075 276 039 090 084 039 03131 0000000000
1843. 2249N 09547W 03048 0074 272 039 086 086 039 03130 0000000000
1844 2249N 09545W 03047 0074 270 038 086 086 038 03130 0000000000
1844. 2249N 09542W 03048 0071 270 038 086 086 038 03127 0000000000
1845 2250N 09540W 03048 0069 266 039 084 084 039 03126 0000000000
1845. 2250N 09538W 03048 0070 265 040 086 086 041 03126 0000000000
1846 2250N 09536W 03047 0073 263 042 084 084 042 03129 0000000000
1846. 2250N 09533W 03048 0071 261 043 086 078 043 03127 0000000000

NNNN

clfenwi · #124 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:54 pm

Crunching the numbers on that last pass....it seems like we should see a big jump in the hurricane force wind radius in the next advisory...

from 40 miles to 50 miles... not quite what I was expecting...

Thunder44 · #125 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:58 pm

18z Models intialized at 85kts. Cat 2 at 3pm probably.

StormsAhead · #126 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:01 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 191856
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 19 KNHC
1847 2250N 09531W 03047 0068 258 042 086 082 043 03123 0000000000
1847. 2250N 09529W 03047 0067 259 041 086 084 041 03123 0000000000
1848 2250N 09526W 03048 0066 257 042 086 086 043 03122 0000000000
1848. 2251N 09524W 03047 0067 254 045 088 086 046 03122 0000000000
1849 2251N 09522W 03048 0066 252 046 086 086 046 03122 0000000000
1849. 2251N 09519W 03047 0065 249 047 088 088 047 03121 0000000000
1850 2251N 09517W 03048 0064 248 049 090 082 049 03121 0000000000
1850. 2251N 09515W 03046 0065 248 049 092 082 049 03120 0000000000
1851 2251N 09512W 03048 0065 247 050 088 086 050 03121 0000000000
1851. 2252N 09510W 03048 0066 247 051 086 086 051 03122 0000000000
1852 2252N 09508W 03048 0067 245 052 086 086 052 03123 0000000000
1852. 2252N 09505W 03047 0066 245 052 086 086 053 03122 0000000000
1853 2252N 09503W 03047 0067 244 053 086 086 053 03122 0000000000
1853. 2252N 09501W 03048 0067 242 054 086 086 055 03123 0000000000
1854 2252N 09458W 03048 0066 243 055 084 084 056 03122 0000000000
1854. 2252N 09456W 03047 0065 242 053 086 086 054 03121 0000000000
1855 2253N 09453W 03048 0066 237 056 084 084 059 03122 0000000000
1855. 2253N 09451W 03047 0067 233 059 088 086 059 03122 0000000000
1856 2253N 09449W 03048 0068 230 059 090 084 060 03124 0000000000
1856. 2253N 09446W 03048 0070 229 060 088 082 061 03126 0000000000

NNNN

Website · #127 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:03 pm

Thunder44 wrote:18z Models intialized at 85kts. Cat 2 at 3pm probably.

We have a winner!

StormsAhead · #128 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:08 pm

305
SXXX50 KNHC 191907
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191906
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 20 KNHC
1857 2253N 09444W 03046 0070 225 060 090 072 062 03124 0000000000
1857. 2253N 09442W 03048 0070 225 057 088 074 058 03126 0000000000
1858 2253N 09440W 03048 0072 225 053 090 080 054 03128 0000000000
1858. 2254N 09437W 03048 0073 223 052 092 078 052 03129 0000000000
1859 2254N 09435W 03047 0075 221 052 096 074 052 03131 0000000000
1859. 2254N 09433W 03048 0078 219 050 100 068 051 03134 0000000000
1900 2254N 09431W 03048 0078 219 051 100 060 051 03135 0000000000
1900. 2254N 09428W 03047 0080 220 051 098 062 051 03136 0000000000
1901 2254N 09426W 03047 0081 219 052 096 066 054 03136 0000000000
1901. 2254N 09424W 03048 0081 221 059 100 054 060 03138 0000000000
1902 2255N 09422W 03047 0083 222 057 104 052 059 03138 0000000000
1902. 2255N 09419W 03046 0084 222 055 106 052 057 03138 0000000000
1903 2255N 09417W 03049 0084 222 054 110 050 055 03141 0000000000
1903. 2255N 09415W 03047 0084 230 057 098 054 058 03140 0000000000
1904 2255N 09412W 03047 0085 230 053 100 050 054 03141 0000000000
1904. 2255N 09410W 03046 0090 225 053 098 052 054 03144 0000000000
1905 2255N 09408W 03046 0091 225 051 096 052 053 03145 0000000000
1905. 2257N 09406W 03052 0091 223 048 098 052 049 03151 0000000000
1906 2258N 09407W 03047 0091 222 046 096 052 046 03147 0000000000
1906. 2300N 09409W 03040 0090 220 046 102 050 046 03139 0000000000

NNNN

Beginning inbound SE leg...SE-NW pass coming up.

StormsAhead · #129 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:18 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 191916
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 21 KNHC
1907 2301N 09410W 03056 0088 221 048 098 048 049 03153 0000000000
1907. 2302N 09411W 03040 0083 221 049 106 048 051 03131 0000000000
1908 2303N 09413W 03051 0082 216 049 106 050 050 03142 0000000000
1908. 2305N 09414W 03047 0082 207 049 106 056 051 03137 0000000000
1909 2306N 09416W 03047 0082 205 050 106 058 050 03137 0000000000
1909. 2308N 09417W 03048 0079 206 045 100 070 048 03135 0000000000
1910 2309N 09418W 03048 0076 207 046 096 080 049 03132 0000000000
1910. 2310N 09420W 03047 0074 208 050 094 082 051 03129 0000000000
1911 2312N 09421W 03048 0072 208 052 090 086 052 03128 0000000000
1911. 2313N 09423W 03047 0069 210 052 086 086 052 03124 0000000000
1912 2314N 09424W 03047 0065 211 051 086 086 051 03121 0000000000
1912. 2316N 09425W 03049 0064 213 053 086 084 054 03121 0000000000
1913 2317N 09427W 03046 0061 213 055 086 086 055 03115 0000000000
1913. 2318N 09428W 03048 0059 215 057 084 084 057 03115 0000000000
1914 2319N 09430W 03047 0055 216 058 086 086 058 03110 0000000000
1914. 2321N 09431W 03048 0052 216 058 094 090 058 03108 0000000000
1915 2322N 09432W 03048 0049 216 056 096 094 057 03105 0000000000
1915. 2323N 09434W 03047 0045 217 056 094 094 056 03100 0000000000
1916 2325N 09435W 03048 0041 212 055 086 086 055 03097 0000000000
1916. 2326N 09437W 03048 0039 209 058 086 086 058 03095 0000000000

NNNN

StormsAhead · #130 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:21 pm

923
URNT11 KNHC 191910
97779 19064 31230 94100 30400 22045 10053 /3101
42145
RMK AF307 2005A EMILY OB 10

StormsAhead · #131 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:29 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 191926
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 22 KNHC
1917 2327N 09438W 03047 0035 208 059 078 078 060 03090 0000000000
1917. 2329N 09439W 03048 0032 212 060 082 082 063 03087 0000000000
1918 2330N 09441W 03047 0027 213 058 078 078 062 03083 0000000000
1918. 2331N 09442W 03046 0023 214 058 080 080 059 03077 0000000000
1919 2332N 09444W 03047 0018 212 061 070 070 061 03074 0000000000
1919. 2334N 09445W 03052 0012 213 061 084 084 062 03072 0000000000
1920 2335N 09446W 03044 0012 215 060 080 080 061 03064 0000000000
1920. 2336N 09448W 03047 0004 212 063 086 086 064 03060 0000000000
1921 2338N 09449W 03048 0002 212 059 078 078 061 03058 0000000000
1921. 2339N 09451W 03049 5003 218 061 082 082 064 03054 0000000000
1922 2340N 09452W 03045 5009 220 060 096 096 061 03044 0000000000
1922. 2341N 09453W 03050 5014 219 060 102 102 060 03043 0000000000
1923 2343N 09455W 03047 5019 224 063 094 094 063 03036 0000000000
1923. 2344N 09456W 03048 5027 220 064 102 102 066 03029 0000000000
1924 2345N 09457W 03049 5033 221 063 084 084 067 03023 0000000000
1924. 2346N 09459W 03048 5038 227 064 090 090 065 03018 0000000000
1925 2348N 09500W 03046 5046 232 065 100 100 065 03007 0000000000
1925. 2349N 09501W 03049 5052 230 064 098 098 065 03004 0000000000
1926 2350N 09502W 03047 5058 229 067 104 104 068 02997 0000000000
1926. 2351N 09504W 03048 5064 230 067 106 106 068 02992 0000000000

NNNN

Eyewall coming up...

#132 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:32 pm

hurricane force wind gust just reported by buoy 42002

I wonder if recon will find the wind field expanded

#133 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:33 pm

Buoy reports seem to suggest this. This could get very interesting here this evening. Waiting for eyewall drop.

#134 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:38 pm

1934. 2412N 09523W 03044 5284 354 014 166 114 018 02768 0000000000

heights are still falling fast!!

Pressure probably 955 or lower!

#135 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:39 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 191937
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191936
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 23 KNHC
1927 2352N 09505W 03048 5071 231 068 106 106 069 02984 0000000000
1927. 2353N 09506W 03047 5079 234 069 110 110 070 02976 0000000000
1928 2355N 09507W 03049 5088 234 069 110 104 070 02968 0000000000
1928. 2356N 09508W 03049 5101 231 074 102 102 075 02957 0000000000
1929 2358N 09509W 03044 5118 232 079 092 092 081 02934 0000000000
1929. 2359N 09510W 03050 5141 230 084 086 086 085 02917 0000000000
1930 2401N 09511W 03050 5164 232 086 094 094 088 02894 0000000000
1930. 2403N 09512W 03052 5192 230 087 096 096 090 02868 00000001001931 2405N 09512W 03049 5225 232 073 100 100 084 02832 0000000100
1931. 2406N 09513W 03038 5240 224 050 136 136 057 02805 0000000000
1932 2408N 09514W 03052 5258 216 033 148 138 039 02801 0000000000
1932. 2409N 09516W 03048 5268 210 024 150 126 026 02787 0000000000
1933 2410N 09518W 03046 5277 206 018 154 122 020 02777 0000000000
1933. 2411N 09519W 03051 5282 210 012 162 124 015 02776 0000000000
1934 2411N 09521W 03048 5285 299 004 164 120 008 02770 0000000000
1934. 2412N 09523W 03044 5284 354 014 166 114 018 02768 0000000000
1935 2413N 09524W 03051 5283 011 019 170 110 020 02776 0000000000
1935. 2414N 09526W 03048 5278 017 025 168 112 028 02777 0000000000
1936 2416N 09527W 03047 5272 022 033 162 114 038 02782 0000000000
1936. 2417N 09528W 03047 5264 028 044 154 136 047 02791 0000000000

StormsAhead · #136 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:43 pm

958
UZNT13 KNHC 191941
XXAA 69207 99241 70952 08245 99962 26603 19075 00841 ///// /////
92352 24805 20586 85095 22004 21070 70768 13400 23058 88999 77999
31313 09608 81931
61616 AF307 2005A EMILY OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 145 SPL 2416N09517W 1934 MBL WND 20086 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 21071 962725 WL150 19583 082 =
XXBB 69208 99241 70952 08245 00962 26603 11850 22004 22726 16209
33705 15400 44696 12000
21212 00962 19075 11955 19587 22940 20083 33933 20588 44917 20588
55896 21081 66890 21074 77879 21070 88850 21070 99696 23057
31313 09608 81931
61616 AF307 2005A EMILY OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 145 SPL 2416N09517W 1934 MBL WND 20086 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 21071 962725 WL150 19583 082 =

962 mb in the eyewall...75 kts surface

clfenwi · #137 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:46 pm

Observation Number: 12
Time transmitted: 1941Z
Position: 24.1 North // 95.2 West
Sea Level Pressure: 962 milibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 75 knots // 190
925 millibar height: 352 meters
925 millibar winds: 86 knots // 205
850 millibar height: 1095 meters
850 millibar winds: 70 knots // 210
700 millibar height: 2768 meters
700 millibar winds: 58 knots // 230
EYEWALL

#138 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:47 pm

clfenwi wrote:Observation Number: 12
Time transmitted: 1941Z
Position: 24.1 North // 95.2 West
Sea Level Pressure: 962 milibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 75 knots // 190
925 millibar height: 352 meters
925 millibar winds: 86 knots // 205
850 millibar height: 1095 meters
850 millibar winds: 70 knots // 210
700 millibar height: 2768 meters
700 millibar winds: 58 knots // 230
EYEWALL

That drop was not overly impressive.

jkt21787 · #139 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:48 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
clfenwi wrote:Observation Number: 12
Time transmitted: 1941Z
Position: 24.1 North // 95.2 West
Sea Level Pressure: 962 milibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 75 knots // 190
925 millibar height: 352 meters
925 millibar winds: 86 knots // 205
850 millibar height: 1095 meters
850 millibar winds: 70 knots // 210
700 millibar height: 2768 meters
700 millibar winds: 58 knots // 230
EYEWALL

That drop was not overly impressive.

I believe its in the SE quad.

#140 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:50 pm

I can buy it is SE, I was looking for low to mid 950's

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