Eye Contracting On Radar

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Sanibel
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Eye Contracting On Radar

#1 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:34 pm

I believe Emily could be entering a increasing intensification phase. The green eyewall bands are suddenly contracting into the center in rapid fashion.
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#2 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:37 pm

Looks like she has stalled to me. :eek:
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:42 pm

It does look like a slight slowdown of a mile per hour or two is happening, but it is hard to say.

The eye no longer has that round look, but instead has the green eyewall bands diving into it and distoring it - which is a sign of intensification.

Any slowdown makes a preshore intensification more prolonged (if it happens).
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#4 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:42 pm

Cat 3 will be easily attainable now. Landfall looks to be not til after sunrise tomorrow now.
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:44 pm

We'll see by 5pm...
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:52 pm

Sooner than that from the looks of it. I think I eye'd this one correctly. The green eyewall radar image is forming a tight eye as I type in what looks like rapid fashion...
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#7 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:00 pm

the sat pics are becoming less impressive.
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#8 Postby Swimdude » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:06 pm

Things are definately working towards strengthening... Just the difference between right now and 12 hours ago is astounding.
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#9 Postby flashflood » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:09 pm

Sanibel wrote:Sooner than that from the looks of it. I think I eye'd this one correctly. The green eyewall radar image is forming a tight eye as I type in what looks like rapid fashion...


Looks to be like a very impressive intensification phase going on according to the latest radar as you mentioned. Nice CDO showing up around the tight circular eye. If it keeps going at this rate, possibly cat 4 again?
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#10 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:13 pm

Looks to be like a very impressive intensification phase going on according to the latest radar as you mentioned. Nice CDO showing up around the tight circular eye. If it keeps going at this rate, possibly cat 4 again?


using the radar to judge intensification is really difficult....IR sat gives a much better read on whats going on in terms of the core development....this...along with the recon reports points to a maintaining phase for the last several hours, not strengthening.
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#11 Postby Huckster » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:13 pm

djtil wrote:the sat pics are becoming less impressive.


According to the most current satellite pics here, the storm is becoming more impressive. The core of the storm is getting better organized and the eye is more defined now as well. Here's a couple o' links...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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#12 Postby swimaster20 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:15 pm

djtil wrote:
Looks to be like a very impressive intensification phase going on according to the latest radar as you mentioned. Nice CDO showing up around the tight circular eye. If it keeps going at this rate, possibly cat 4 again?


using the radar to judge intensification is really difficult....IR sat gives a much better read on whats going on in terms of the core development....this...along with the recon reports points to a maintaining phase for the last several hours, not strengthening.


Actually recon reports flight level winds have been getting increasingly higher each run, maybe a subtle difference, but there is an increase.
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#13 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:16 pm

Look at the latest vortex pressure, thats all you need to know.
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#14 Postby nolecaster » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:16 pm

959 mb, this thing is strengthening.
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#15 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:16 pm

wow...959....i was following the recon post and the winds were still 92-93kts.....surprised to see such a pressure fall....
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#16 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:19 pm

If 959 is accurate it is rapidly intensifying. The radar never lies...
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:20 pm

She looks every bit of 115mph cat 3 to me right now and that pressure reading justifies that as well.
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#18 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:22 pm

It should have been obvious. When an eye has the eyewall bands dive into it quickly and tighten to half the eye's size from only an hour before that can only mean one thing - rapid intensification!
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#19 Postby swimaster20 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:22 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:She looks every bit of 115mph cat 3 to me right now and that pressure reading justifies that as well.


I agree
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#20 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:56 pm

The nice round solid donut CDO is becoming more apparent as it gets closer to the radar.

A notch more N in landfall seems to be occurring. Maybe Boca De Jesus Maria Bay now, nearer to Brownsville.


Storm is threatening to bomb.

Eye is reappearing. Center is intensification wobbling...
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