H Emily Recon Reports

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clfenwi
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#81 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:27 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so when should the next vortex message be in?


My estimate from earlier (1730-1745Z) looks to be on... we haven't seen an observation yet of passage through the eye... usually see the vortex message 10-15 minutes after that...
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#82 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:27 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so when should the next vortex message be in?


May be one around 1:45 PM
Last edited by StormsAhead on Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#83 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:28 pm

ok cool thanks!
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#84 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:29 pm

648
SXXX50 KNHC 191727
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191726
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 10 KNHC
1717 2550N 09308W 03803 0203 137 043 052 002 043 04015 0000000000
1717. 2548N 09309W 03556 0176 139 041 064 028 041 03741 0000000000
1718 2547N 09311W 03360 0163 140 041 068 044 041 03531 0000000000
1718. 2545N 09312W 03141 0149 135 039 078 062 040 03298 0000000000
1719 2544N 09313W 03048 0137 135 040 086 072 041 03192 0000000000
1719. 2542N 09314W 03049 0133 135 040 086 084 040 03190 0000000000
1720 2541N 09315W 03049 0132 136 040 080 080 041 03189 0000000000
1720. 2539N 09316W 03048 0131 143 039 084 084 039 03186 0000000000
1721 2538N 09317W 03049 0131 144 040 086 086 041 03187 0000000000
1721. 2537N 09318W 03047 0130 140 040 084 084 041 03185 0000000000
1722 2535N 09319W 03050 0129 142 033 080 080 035 03187 0000000000
1722. 2534N 09320W 03045 0125 137 033 082 082 035 03178 0000000000
1723 2533N 09322W 03048 0125 136 039 078 078 045 03181 0000000000
1723. 2531N 09323W 03047 0124 137 043 084 084 046 03179 0000000000
1724 2530N 09324W 03049 0124 138 044 084 080 045 03180 0000000000
1724. 2529N 09325W 03046 0121 144 044 080 080 044 03174 0000000000
1725 2527N 09326W 03051 0121 144 041 076 076 041 03180 0000000000
1725. 2526N 09327W 03046 0118 151 042 088 078 044 03172 0000000000
1726 2525N 09328W 03048 0118 150 044 090 074 045 03174 0000000000
1726. 2523N 09329W 03047 0119 146 048 092 076 050 03174 0000000000

NNNN

Getting closer to the eye
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#85 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:31 pm

StormsAhead wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so when should the next vortex message be in?


May be one around 1:45 PM...in time for the 2 PM advisory.


They have shifted to advisories every two hours... so an advisory went out 30 minutes ago...next goes out at 3 PM EDT...
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#86 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:33 pm

clfenwi wrote:
StormsAhead wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so when should the next vortex message be in?


May be one around 1:45 PM...in time for the 2 PM advisory.


They have shifted to advisories every two hours... so an advisory went out 30 minutes ago...next goes out at 3 PM EDT...


Oh yes sorry, forgot about that.
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#87 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:36 pm

024
URNT11 KNHC 191734
97779 17274 31253 93500 30500 14045 08088 /3128
41245
RMK AF307 2005A EMILY OB 02
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#88 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:38 pm

377
SXXX50 KNHC 191737
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191736
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 11 KNHC
1727 2522N 09330W 03049 0120 139 048 096 078 049 03177 0000000000
1727. 2521N 09331W 03048 0119 138 045 090 082 045 03175 0000000000
1728 2519N 09333W 03047 0117 139 049 092 080 052 03172 0000000000
1728. 2518N 09334W 03049 0116 137 052 096 074 053 03173 0000000000
1729 2517N 09335W 03048 0115 136 053 096 070 053 03170 0000000000
1729. 2516N 09336W 03048 0113 134 051 092 070 051 03170 0000000000
1730 2514N 09338W 03047 0113 139 053 092 068 055 03167 0000000000
1730. 2513N 09339W 03049 0112 138 054 100 066 054 03168 0000000000
1731 2512N 09340W 03048 0108 139 053 100 068 054 03164 0000000000
1731. 2511N 09342W 03048 0107 139 052 100 066 052 03163 0000000000
1732 2510N 09343W 03048 0118 137 053 106 060 054 03228 0000000100
1732. 2508N 09345W 03048 0118 135 054 106 058 054 03158 0000000000
1733 2507N 09346W 03048 0102 136 055 108 052 056 03157 0000000000
1733. 2506N 09347W 03048 0101 136 057 106 054 058 03157 0000000000
1734 2505N 09349W 03048 0101 137 058 102 056 059 03157 0000000000
1734. 2504N 09350W 03049 0100 137 060 100 058 060 03156 0000000000
1735 2502N 09351W 03048 0098 136 061 098 060 062 03154 0000000000
1735. 2501N 09353W 03047 0096 134 061 092 066 061 03151 0000000000
1736 2500N 09354W 03048 0093 133 061 088 072 061 03149 0000000000
1736. 2459N 09355W 03047 0091 133 062 086 078 063 03146 0000000000

NNNN

63 knots so far...
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#89 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:46 pm

Observation Number:03
Time transmitted: 1742Z
Position: 25.3 North // 93.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 678 meters
925 millibar winds: 59 knots / / 130
850 millibar height: 1411 meters
850 millibar winds: 53 knots / / 125
700 millibar height: 3060 meters
700 millibar winds: 51 knots // 135
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#90 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:49 pm

462
SXXX50 KNHC 191748
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191746
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 12 KNHC
1737 2457N 09357W 03049 0090 133 063 086 080 064 03146 0000000000
1737. 2456N 09358W 03048 0086 132 064 086 086 064 03142 0000000000
1738 2455N 09359W 03049 0085 131 064 084 084 064 03142 0000000000
1738. 2454N 09401W 03047 0083 128 064 084 084 065 03138 0000000000
1739 2452N 09402W 03048 0079 132 064 082 082 065 03135 0000000000
1739. 2451N 09404W 03047 0076 137 063 080 080 064 03131 0000000000
1740 2450N 09405W 03048 0074 139 062 070 070 066 03130 0000000000
1740. 2449N 09406W 03047 0072 144 068 080 080 071 03127 0000000000
1741 2448N 09407W 03049 0069 140 068 088 088 069 03125 0000000000
1741. 2447N 09409W 03055 0067 138 062 074 074 065 03130 0000000100
1742 2445N 09410W 03040 0062 139 066 064 064 068 03110 0000000100
1742. 2444N 09411W 03049 0061 138 071 082 082 072 03118 0000000000
1743 2443N 09413W 03047 0058 137 072 082 082 074 03113 0000000000
1743. 2442N 09414W 03048 0054 137 072 076 076 072 03110 0000000000
1744 2441N 09415W 03049 0051 140 074 072 072 078 03108 0000000000
1744. 2440N 09417W 03047 0046 139 080 078 078 081 03101 0000000000
1745 2438N 09418W 03048 0042 140 082 084 084 082 03098 0000000000
1745. 2437N 09419W 03049 0039 140 079 080 080 081 03097 0000000000
1746 2436N 09420W 03048 0036 141 076 082 082 077 03091 0000000000
1746. 2435N 09422W 03048 0031 137 077 086 086 078 03087 0000000000

NNNN

82 knots highest so far
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#91 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:56 pm

and that's likely going to be the highest for this pass... no real change from the previous mission it looks like as far as flight level winds go (unless that was some kind of point maximum away from the eyewall, which I kind of doubt)...
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#92 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:58 pm

647
SXXX50 KNHC 191757
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191756
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 13 KNHC
1747 2434N 09423W 03048 0027 135 079 082 082 080 03083 0000000000
1747. 2433N 09424W 03045 0021 132 079 078 078 079 03074 0000000000
1748 2432N 09425W 03050 0015 132 081 080 080 082 03073 0000000000
1748. 2430N 09427W 03049 0010 133 084 084 084 085 03067 0000000000
1749 2429N 09428W 03047 0004 130 085 084 084 086 03059 0000000000
1749. 2428N 09429W 03047 5001 127 082 074 074 086 03054 0000000000
1750 2427N 09431W 03047 5006 131 082 070 070 085 03049 0000000100
1750. 2425N 09432W 03050 5013 141 071 080 080 077 03045 0000000100
1751 2424N 09433W 03047 5016 141 067 100 100 068 03039 0000000000
1751. 2423N 09435W 03050 5023 138 068 106 106 068 03035 0000000000
1752 2422N 09436W 03047 5029 137 068 110 104 069 03026 0000000000
1752. 2421N 09437W 03046 5036 139 072 110 106 072 03018 0000000000
1753 2420N 09439W 03048 5042 140 076 106 106 077 03014 0000000000
1753. 2419N 09440W 03048 5051 142 076 104 104 077 03004 0000000000
1754 2417N 09441W 03049 5059 144 076 108 108 076 02998 0000000000
1754. 2416N 09442W 03046 5069 147 076 108 108 078 02984 0000000000
1755 2415N 09443W 03049 5078 148 074 112 106 075 02978 0000000000
1755. 2414N 09445W 03049 5090 148 079 108 108 081 02967 0000000000
1756 2413N 09446W 03047 5105 147 084 104 104 084 02950 0000000000
1756. 2412N 09448W 03052 5122 145 087 110 110 087 02938 0000000000

NNNN

First wind maximum 86 kts, second 87 kts, possibly higher.
Last edited by StormsAhead on Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#93 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:00 pm

mmm crow...
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#94 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:00 pm

Emily will not explode until the double wind maxima is gone...
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#95 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:03 pm

sounds to me like maybe a ERC!
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#96 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:05 pm

and that 87 knots was both a 10 sec avg and 30 sec avg...
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#97 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:07 pm

705
SXXX50 KNHC 191807
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191806
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 14 KNHC
1757 2412N 09450W 03042 5142 148 089 092 092 090 02908 0000000000
1757. 2411N 09451W 03049 5165 149 093 086 086 094 02891 0000000100
1758 2410N 09453W 03051 5189 155 088 094 094 091 02870 0000000100
1758. 2409N 09454W 03051 5211 152 069 104 104 082 02848 0000000100
1759 2408N 09456W 03042 5228 149 055 136 136 057 02822 0000000000
1759. 2407N 09457W 03048 5244 149 043 160 142 049 02811 0000000000
1800 2406N 09459W 03047 5250 150 026 160 140 031 02804 0000000000
1800. 2406N 09501W 03047 5250 179 014 156 128 018 02805 0000000000
1801 2405N 09503W 03048 5248 200 013 150 122 014 02807 0000000000
1801. 2405N 09505W 03050 5249 208 011 156 110 013 02808 0000000000
1802 2406N 09507W 03048 5251 146 003 166 102 006 02804 0000000000
1802. 2406N 09509W 03051 5253 055 009 174 112 013 02805 0000000000
1803 2405N 09510W 03043 5255 011 015 184 106 019 02795 0000000000
1803. 2404N 09512W 03049 5251 348 030 182 112 035 02805 0000000000
1804 2402N 09513W 03046 5236 331 049 152 140 055 02817 0000000000
1804. 2401N 09515W 03048 5214 320 064 132 132 066 02841 0000000000
1805 2400N 09516W 03045 5192 317 080 118 118 083 02860 0000000000
1805. 2359N 09517W 03052 5169 316 084 132 122 085 02890 0000000000
1806 2357N 09519W 03047 5147 320 081 128 116 082 02908 0000000000
1806. 2356N 09520W 03051 5125 320 081 124 118 082 02934 0000000000


94 kts

85 in SW!!
Last edited by drezee on Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#98 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:08 pm

705
SXXX50 KNHC 191807
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191806
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 14 KNHC
1757 2412N 09450W 03042 5142 148 089 092 092 090 02908 0000000000
1757. 2411N 09451W 03049 5165 149 093 086 086 094 02891 0000000100
1758 2410N 09453W 03051 5189 155 088 094 094 091 02870 0000000100
1758. 2409N 09454W 03051 5211 152 069 104 104 082 02848 0000000100
1759 2408N 09456W 03042 5228 149 055 136 136 057 02822 0000000000
1759. 2407N 09457W 03048 5244 149 043 160 142 049 02811 0000000000
1800 2406N 09459W 03047 5250 150 026 160 140 031 02804 0000000000
1800. 2406N 09501W 03047 5250 179 014 156 128 018 02805 0000000000
1801 2405N 09503W 03048 5248 200 013 150 122 014 02807 0000000000
1801. 2405N 09505W 03050 5249 208 011 156 110 013 02808 0000000000
1802 2406N 09507W 03048 5251 146 003 166 102 006 02804 0000000000
1802. 2406N 09509W 03051 5253 055 009 174 112 013 02805 0000000000
1803 2405N 09510W 03043 5255 011 015 184 106 019 02795 0000000000
1803. 2404N 09512W 03049 5251 348 030 182 112 035 02805 0000000000
1804 2402N 09513W 03046 5236 331 049 152 140 055 02817 0000000000
1804. 2401N 09515W 03048 5214 320 064 132 132 066 02841 0000000000
1805 2400N 09516W 03045 5192 317 080 118 118 083 02860 0000000000
1805. 2359N 09517W 03052 5169 316 084 132 122 085 02890 0000000000
1806 2357N 09519W 03047 5147 320 081 128 116 082 02908 0000000000
1806. 2356N 09520W 03051 5125 320 081 124 118 082 02934 0000000000

NNNN

94 knots...no real change since the last mission (92 knots then)
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#99 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:09 pm

heights are much lower!!

1802 2406N 09507W 03048 5251 146 003 166 102 006 02804 0000000000
1802. 2406N 09509W 03051 5253 055 009 174 112 013 02805 0000000000

Pressure surely in the mid 960s....
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#100 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:11 pm

StormsAhead wrote:705
SXXX50 KNHC 191807
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 191806
AF307 2005A EMILY HDOB 14 KNHC
1757 2412N 09450W 03042 5142 148 089 092 092 090 02908 0000000000
1757. 2411N 09451W 03049 5165 149 093 086 086 094 02891 0000000100
1758 2410N 09453W 03051 5189 155 088 094 094 091 02870 0000000100
1758. 2409N 09454W 03051 5211 152 069 104 104 082 02848 0000000100
1759 2408N 09456W 03042 5228 149 055 136 136 057 02822 0000000000
1759. 2407N 09457W 03048 5244 149 043 160 142 049 02811 0000000000
1800 2406N 09459W 03047 5250 150 026 160 140 031 02804 0000000000
1800. 2406N 09501W 03047 5250 179 014 156 128 018 02805 0000000000
1801 2405N 09503W 03048 5248 200 013 150 122 014 02807 0000000000
1801. 2405N 09505W 03050 5249 208 011 156 110 013 02808 0000000000
1802 2406N 09507W 03048 5251 146 003 166 102 006 02804 0000000000
1802. 2406N 09509W 03051 5253 055 009 174 112 013 02805 0000000000
1803 2405N 09510W 03043 5255 011 015 184 106 019 02795 0000000000
1803. 2404N 09512W 03049 5251 348 030 182 112 035 02805 0000000000
1804 2402N 09513W 03046 5236 331 049 152 140 055 02817 0000000000
1804. 2401N 09515W 03048 5214 320 064 132 132 066 02841 0000000000
1805 2400N 09516W 03045 5192 317 080 118 118 083 02860 0000000000
1805. 2359N 09517W 03052 5169 316 084 132 122 085 02890 0000000000
1806 2357N 09519W 03047 5147 320 081 128 116 082 02908 0000000000
1806. 2356N 09520W 03051 5125 320 081 124 118 082 02934 0000000000

NNNN

94 knots...no real change since the last mission (92 knots then)


Yeah, but max 30 sec avg on that last mission was 88 knots ... on this one it's 93...
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