NHC Did A Superb Job Forecasting Path

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dwg71
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#21 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:18 am

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
hicksta wrote:yall it aint over yet :wink:


Your right it could still hit as far north of the border as 75 miles and as far south as 250, according to NHC cone of error. I would focus a 100 miles either way of the black line.

But the NHC has never had a problem with her and she will not do anything drastic. Like the EA sports video game says "if its in the game, its in the game" 48hours out the NHC has a slogan too "If its in the cone, its in the cone"


But it is a large cone. Not an Accuweather sized cone but still a big cone. If you make the cone big enough your margin of error is going to look pretty good. That cone from 24 hours out is so big that is hard to imagine the storm getting outside of it. It depends on your perspective. Do you get 50 points for hitting the bullseye or do you get 50 points simply for hitting the board?


You get more points for a bullseye, but you get some points for hitting the board. If you say that the championship dart thrower (NHC) cant hit the board from 10ft (72 hours out), you get a plate full of crow. Some were calling for dart thrower to hit the bartender, because smoke in bar was traveling toward him...
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shawn67
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#22 Postby shawn67 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:27 am

Sanibel wrote:Headed for La Pesca, Mexico - or a few miles north of town.


So you are saying from here on out it is going to head due west?????

Shawn
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dwg71
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#23 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:29 am

shawn67 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Headed for La Pesca, Mexico - or a few miles north of town.


So you are saying from here on out it is going to head due west?????

Shawn


looks that way..
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Brent
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#24 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:42 am

shawn67 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Headed for La Pesca, Mexico - or a few miles north of town.


So you are saying from here on out it is going to head due west?????

Shawn


Yep...
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shawn67
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#25 Postby shawn67 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:42 am

dwg71 wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Headed for La Pesca, Mexico - or a few miles north of town.


So you are saying from here on out it is going to head due west?????

Shawn


looks that way..


Looks to me to go smack dab in between La Pesca and Brownsville

Shawn
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Sanibel
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#26 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:50 am

I doubt it will, but if the heights are stronger than they thought, it could even veer south a touch...
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