Intensity???

[gk1]

Emily looks much better than when she struck the Yucatan. When the next recon gets its next invest, I sure the winds will increase to between 110-120mph. It may be near that now!!!

[cycloneye]

Emily looks much better than when she struck the Yucatan. When the next recon gets its next invest, I sure the winds will increase to between 110-120mph. It may be near that now!!!

Go to recon thread.

[Lowpressure]

It looks much better, it will be interesting to follow the pressure to wind response ratio this time.

[swimaster20]

I am starting to think the same thing, her satellite presentation is pretty good right now.

[clfenwi]

First Emily-related thing I did today was looking at the visual satellite images. Thought for sure winds were 105-115. Needless to say, I was quite surprised when I read the advisory, somewhat less so when I read the discussion (and saw what the Dvorak estimates were).

[KWT]

It certainly looks like a better and better storm,will be suprised if it isn't upgraded to a category-2 hurricane soon,certainly by the time the next recon mission arrives in the storm.

At the moment i'll say Emily is about 100-105mph making it a cat-2,due to a ever improving inner sturcture,esp wit hthe eye now starting to really clear and the eyewall being fully closed and looking better then ever on radar.

[JamesFromMaine2]

12:34pm EST

Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Well I am New to Hurricane tracking I have been tracking storms on and off for 5+ years now but just really started being interested in hurricanes last year and just this year started tracking them! Infact Emily is the first one I have tracked through out its life cycle! ok now with that said I will try to explain what I think is happening! However if you disagree then please say so it will be a learning experiance for me!

Ok I have been watching this closely over the past 24hours or so and during the night before the convection fired up emily had what appeared to be a eye forming and in fact it was a 60mile wide eye! however there was little if any convection around it. Then over the night the convection started fireing up and started covering the eye much like what happend with dennis after leaving cuba. and before long there was no sign of the eye but we had this massive area of convection so once again there was little if any change in wind speed and pressure. well now this morning/afternoon you have the convection and it is fully wrapped around the closed eye wall. So all night there was either a eye but little if any convection or alot of convection but no eye. not this morning or afternoon we have both.

So my forcast is that this afternoon she will go through a period of rappid deepening and possibly even countinue deepening right up until landfall. I think she will be a strong cat 3 maybe cat 4 on landfall depending on how rappidly she deepens. from what I can tell the only thing against her is TIME and as far as where she will make landfall I really don't know. I am not willing to rule out Texas however it looks unlikely however like the NHC said any move to the right puts it all that much closer to Texas and even if it doesn't make landfall in texas they can still expect to get tropical storm forced winds so either way it will be rough night in and morning in texas!

[JTD]

12:34pm EST

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Well I am New to Hurricane tracking I have been tracking storms on and off for 5+ years now but just really started being interested in hurricanes last year and just this year started tracking them! Infact Emily is the first one I have tracked through out its life cycle! ok now with that said I will try to explain what I think is happening! However if you disagree then please say so it will be a learning experiance for me!

Ok I have been watching this closely over the past 24hours or so and during the night before the convection fired up emily had what appeared to be a eye forming and in fact it was a 60mile wide eye! however there was little if any convection around it. Then over the night the convection started fireing up and started covering the eye much like what happend with dennis after leaving cuba. and before long there was no sign of the eye but we had this massive area of convection so once again there was little if any change in wind speed and pressure. well now this morning/afternoon you have the convection and it is fully wrapped around the closed eye wall. So all night there was either a eye but little if any convection or alot of convection but no eye. not this morning or afternoon we have both.

So my forcast is that this afternoon she will go through a period of rappid deepening and possibly even countinue deepening right up until landfall. I think she will be a strong cat 3 maybe cat 4 on landfall depending on how rappidly she deepens. from what I can tell the only thing against her is TIME and as far as where she will make landfall I really don't know. I am not willing to rule out Texas however it looks unlikely however like the NHC said any move to the right puts it all that much closer to Texas and even if it doesn't make landfall in texas they can still expect to get tropical storm forced winds so either way it will be rough night in and morning in texas!

James, well said indeed. Great post I look forward to reading more of your posts as the hurricane season progresses.

Thanks for joining storm2k.