Is She Going to Reform as Small, Viscious Storm?

[Ziplock]

Latest Floater Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that going to be a smaller, tighter eye?

Doesn't the swirl shape of the inner convection look better organized? As if it is accelerating towards the center?

Not referring to warmth or coldness of cloudtops here.

Its late. Anybody still up?
Zip

[beachbum_al]

I'm up but about to go to sleep. I am not sure what she is doing. She has strengthen to 90 so I am guessing that maybe she will be a high Cat2 or a low Cat3. Just my opinion though~

[Swimdude]

Yup i'm awake. Emily is definately looking more organized by each frame. Wouldn't doubt cat. 2 status by sun-rise. Or cat. 3 by sundown tomorrow.

[clfenwi]

It has seemed like that all evening. However, recon has continued to find an elliptical eye with unchanged dimensions... also no fall in pressure since the current mission entered.

[Ziplock]

You just can't EVER trust these things!

Here we have a very unusual situation with the second very intense July hurricane: and Emily IS strengthening, and IS about to move over very warm water in an area of very little shear...oh yeah, outflow isn't too shabby, either.

I am not try to be a fearmonger, just summarizing a few of the
more salient characteristics.

We'll know a lot more tomorrow, but for now, I do not like the looks of Emily.

Another thing...what do you make of the slowdown?

Zip

[Ziplock]

Thanks...before I get all hot and bothered, I should consider whether the pressure has fallen. Maybe we'll see a wrap up before a fall.

Say, do restrengthening storms behave differently in that regard? Do the winds sometimes increase before the pressure falls for a while at least? Then does a little "extra deepening" drive another increase in winds?

Maybe someone with more experience monitoring storms might have an opinion?

Thanks,
Zip

[gkrangers]

Decent convection is now wrapped pretty symmetrically around the center.

Best organization she has shown since moving off the Yucatan.

Outflow still looks somewhat restricted to the south, as the ULL still lives over the BOC.

The last recon eye pass yielded an extrapolated 984mb pressure. So no drop yet. I do expect some modest strengthening over night, since the upper level environment is favorable, and she'll be moving further away from the ULL.

[clfenwi]

In the recon report thread Derek Ortt offered that the wind increase we have seen is illusory (as far as an indication of intensification goes) becuase it is due to reduced effects of friction (Friction is lower over water than land so when the storm leaves land the rebalancing of forces yields a higher wind speed).

[Ziplock]

In the recon report thread Derek Ortt offered that the wind increase we have seen is illusory (as far as an indication of intensification goes) becuase it is due to reduced effects of friction (Friction is lower over water than land so when the storm leaves land the rebalancing of forces yields a higher wind speed).

That makes a lot of sense.

In this thread, I mean primarily to comment on what appears to my very ameteur eyes to be a much improved visual presentation. SHe looks better to me, even if other, objective measures do not (yet?) support significant intensification.

I'm not surprised to see her getting a little bit healthier, I think we are all pretty much expecting that. I'm wondering if she still has a jones to get a LOT healthier.

[Windy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the storm go crazy-go-nuts. I hope it doesn't of course.

It's a been a crazy year, the gulf is a bathtub, and the NE quad appears to be literally bombing at the moment and is starting to wrap around.

[ALhurricane]

Emily is definitely taking advantage of the nighttime convective maximum. A good deep burst of convection on the north side is now trying to wrap around. Recon has shown no pressure drops as of yet, but this is the real first sign of attempted strengthening.

[gkrangers]

Like ERC, the term "bombing" is overused.

Bombing is reserved for when the pressure falls very rapidly and winds increase very rapidly.

Yeah, the convective tops over the northeast side have gotten colder.

Just my opinion on the matter.

[mike18xx]

Emily is definitely taking advantage of the nighttime convective maximum.

My take is that enough of the pre-landfall outer wind envelope has collapsed enough to allow a steeper pressure gradient back into the center.

I expect that meso-burst of convection to begin orbitting faster and faster scouring out a new true eye. Then, if parallels to some other intensifying storms hold true, the meso will disappear before noon tomorrow, tops will warm somewhat, then after a lull of a few hours, the entire eyewall ring will fire simultaneously, initiating a rapid intensification cycle up into the cat-3/4 range.

[Ziplock]

Emily is definitely taking advantage of the nighttime convective maximum.

My take is that enough of the pre-landfall outer wind envelope has collapsed enough to allow a steeper pressure gradient back into the center.

I expect that meso-burst of convection to begin orbitting faster and faster scouring out a new true eye. Then, if parallels to some other intensifying storms hold true, the meso will disappear before noon tomorrow, tops will warm somewhat, then after a lull of a few hours, the entire eyewall ring will fire simultaneously, initiating a rapid intensification cycle up into the cat-3/4 range.

Sounds like your scenario could take place. Already in the process. Can you think of another storm (by name )which intensified in this way? Late night inquiring minds need to know. LOL
Zip

[Sanibel]

That burst is underway. Pressure should follow soon. Emily has done it again and evaporated all her outside bands only to burst a deep center. This is what I'm talking about with my storm soul theory. She did this twice already in the Caribbean and has kept it as a charatceristic...

[Windy]

Like ERC, the term "bombing" is overused.

Bombing is reserved for when the pressure falls very rapidly and winds increase very rapidly.

Yeah, the convective tops over the northeast side have gotten colder.

Just my opinion on the matter.

I think that with the next recon, you will find that "bombing" is the correct term. There is no way that a storm can go from the sat signature it had 12 hours ago to the sat signature it has now without significant strengthening.