Emily missing her points

#41 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:35 pm

Will a mod. please correct my spelling in the heading

clfenwi · #42 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:35 pm

Brent wrote:Current motion brings it in just south of Brownsville in Mexico...
(snip)

No, that's what the instantantaneous motion at 0000Z would have done though... since that time Emily has been moving due west...while I don't necessarily think that motion will persist, I doubt the 06Z models will be initialized with a 300 heading again...

dwg71 · #43 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:39 pm

NHC will have landfall within a 100 mile margin of error IMO, its not far off of points, especially after western jog. I dont see a TX landfall..

#44 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:40 pm

yeah, its been like 305 most of day...with 285 or so jogs...

#45 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:42 pm

>>NHC needs a hurricane warning for South Padre now.

Did they issue a Hurricane Watch with the Tropical Storm Warning?

Steve

#46 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:43 pm

Interesting info from the Corpus Christi NWS office this evening, supporting the NHC forecast track:

THE CENTER OF HURRICANCE EMILY HAS BEEN
RUNNING ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS RIDGING MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT PER THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK.

jkt21787 · #47 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:45 pm

Portastorm wrote:Interesting info from the Corpus Christi NWS office this evening, supporting the NHC forecast track:

THE CENTER OF HURRICANCE EMILY HAS BEEN
RUNNING ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS RIDGING MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT PER THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK.

Yep, things are progessing EXACTLY as NHC has been forecasting, TX landfall looks slim with Mexico a good bet.

Swimdude · #48 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:02 pm

Did they issue a Hurricane Watch with the Tropical Storm Warning?

Yup, see the 10 p.m. advisory. Baffin Bay Southward to the TX/Mexico border.

Derek Ortt · #49 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:19 pm

the left turn is a given

however, the GFS has been too far south for too long and they had an illigical track this afternoon at 12Z. Plus, we have a larger than expected system. A hurricane warning is far more justified for extreme south texas (like from port mansfield south) than the hurricane warning was for the Apalache Bay during Dennis (yes, they had surge, but they also had a whole 40-50 m.p.h. wind)

HouTXmetro · #50 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:36 pm

Ridging over ther Carolinas? I guess I have alot to learn about weather because I see nothing but heavy thunderstorms over the Carolinas.

Nimbus · #51 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:39 pm

Whats going on with the slowdown in forward motion?
Usually that is a sign a storm has run out of easterlies and is lacking steering.
Slowdowns like that bother me since it allows more time for intensification and nasty steering elements to develop.
Seems kind of far south to be a temporary ridge buck.

corpusbreeze · #52 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:41 pm

Hey Im prepared here in Corpus. I went out and bought 2 gallons of water. :lol:

HouTXmetro · #53 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:56 pm

corpusbreeze wrote:Hey Im prepared here in Corpus. I went out and bought 2 gallons of water.

LOL, I guess every litte thing counts.

Anonymous · #54 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:02 pm

Looks like she pretty much made her last point though.

corpusbreeze · #55 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:03 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
corpusbreeze wrote:Hey Im prepared here in Corpus. I went out and bought 2 gallons of water.

LOL, I guess every litte thing counts.

Hey Im happy ... Bring on the rain!!

Anonymous · #56 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:05 pm

corpusbreeze wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
corpusbreeze wrote:Hey Im prepared here in Corpus. I went out and bought 2 gallons of water.

LOL, I guess every litte thing counts.
Hey Im happy ... Bring on the rain!!

Did you watch channel 6 tonight. Seemed to me like Dale Nelson's thinking is we will not even get much rain out of this. I heard his quote about something just another summer day in South Texas. Maybe I missed something?

HouTXmetro · #57 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:05 pm

looks like Emily may be trying to greet the Entire Texas coast with an outer band.

corpusbreeze · #58 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:06 pm

Also in my opinion I think she will stair steap all the way to the coast.

curtinnc · #59 Postby **curtinnc** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:23 pm

Yeah sure does... But what of this slowdown... Guess the ridge is stronger enough, and with a weaker cane that doesn't quite have the cloud tops we had before, the low levels will have more steering affects the the prevailing westerlies... (if there are any in the GOM near ol' Em...

Seems like we have been watching Em for quite a while... Maybe I can get some work done later this week... finally...

Swimdude · #60 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:26 pm

That outer band might look decent on infrared, but it's really just a bunch of clouds. Look at the following image... The line of green at the bottom right emerging; that's the band. Nothing impressive. Maybe 15 minutes of steady rainfall at most wherever that goes.

Emily missing her points

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