TS Eugene has been downgraded to TD,Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Header changed at NRL.Apart from the 2.0 t number amd the models.

First Advisory at 8 AM PDT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (EP052005) ON 20050718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050718 1200 050719 0000 050719 1200 050720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 105.1W 15.7N 106.8W 16.7N 108.9W 17.9N 111.1W
BAMM 14.9N 105.1W 15.7N 106.8W 16.5N 108.8W 17.4N 110.8W
LBAR 14.9N 105.1W 15.8N 107.1W 17.0N 109.5W 18.3N 111.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050720 1200 050721 1200 050722 1200 050723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 113.3W 18.4N 118.5W 17.9N 125.0W 17.8N 131.2W
BAMM 17.8N 112.6W 17.7N 116.3W 17.3N 120.5W 17.2N 124.9W
LBAR 19.4N 114.3W 21.6N 119.8W 23.2N 124.9W 23.9N 128.5W
SHIP 48KTS 39KTS 26KTS 17KTS
DSHP 48KTS 39KTS 26KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 105.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 101.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like the Eastern Pacific is coming back. The global models show a west-northwest to northwest track. It looks like this will likely become a tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

Another uneventful storm.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 181455
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. 12Z DVORAK
T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB... CORRESPONDING TO AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. HOWEVER... SHIP MSTM6 AT 12Z...
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...
REPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM THE WEST. SINCE WINDS COULD EASILY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EUGENE... THE
FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. EUGENE
APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR... BEFORE REACHING THE 26
CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE AND PEAKS AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. EUGENE IS BEING STEERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... IN A LOCATION JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN AVERAGE FOR JULY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
INDUCE EUGENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... AWAY FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENS AFTER 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.1N 105.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

[Swimdude]

Wow, I totally made this post 2 hours ago and everyone ignored it.

[WeatherEmperor]

So now we are even with the EPAC in terms of named storms.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
2100Z MON JUL 18 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 182100
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEPTH OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED... BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UNANIMOUSLY INCREASED TO T2.5/35
KT... WITH DATA T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS 3.0. GIVEN THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL EUGENE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
A PEAK AT 55 KT... JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER OF EUGENE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST. AS A RESULT...THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/10. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT 48 HOURS... ALTHOUGH AT GREATLY DIFFERING SPEEDS DUE AT
LEAST IN PART TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION STRENGTH.
SINCE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION... THE CURRENT FORWARD
SPEED ARE DIRECTION ARE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL BUT SLOWER
THAN THE UKMET. ON THIS TRACK... EUGENE SHOULD PARALLEL THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BUT THEN MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO THE WEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS... A WEAKENING EUGENE AND
ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 105.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 106.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Andrew92]

So the score is 5-5.

However, the majority of the EPAC storms this year have only lasted a few days at most and with the exception of Adrian, none have made it to hurricane strength. This greatly concerns me for the Atlantic side as we get deeper into the season.

-Andrew92

[clfenwi]

http://estadis.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/294504.html (article in Spanish)

One person drowned in Laguna de Tres Palos de Acapulco when his boat was overturned by high winds. 30 houses/dwellings in various parts of Alcapulco are flooded. Streets are flooded as well.

[dhweather]

How DARE the EPAC catch up!

[clfenwi]

[cycloneye]

701
WTPZ25 KNHC 190231
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
0300Z TUE JUL 19 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS
DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE OUTER
BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS REMAIN INTACT.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS BENEATH A RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMET...BEFORE
A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES OVER COOLER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5....OR SOONER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN
36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE PASSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPEED
DISPARITIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWEST
MOTION OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BASED OFF
OF THE ECMWF AND THE BAMM...BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 105.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 190835
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
0900Z TUE JUL 19 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND COLDER
TOPS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS
WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS RESIDE USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA. SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE TWO DVORAK 45 KT CLASSIFICATIONS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED
OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WITH STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER
HAND INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WEAKENING TREND WITH
DISSIPATION IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE
ANIMATION...PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE BAMM AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.9N 107.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[P.K.]

That island just within the cone looks to be a volcano looking at it on Google Earth.

[cycloneye]

191433
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005
1500Z TUE JUL 19 2005

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 108.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH AN
EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION...A MORE EMBEDDED CENTER...AND GOOD
BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL STENGTHENING IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO EUGENE WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THAT SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER DECLINE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND
FASTER THAN BEFORE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF EUGENE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES THE LATTER FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A
LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE REMAINS AN
UNCOMFORTABLE SPREAD WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOWING A CLOSE
APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND RADIUS IS ABOUT 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AND RADII FORECASTS KEEP TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE RADII SHOULD PULL
IN AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE
TRACK/INTENSITY/RADII FORECASTS COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 19.0N 108.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED