Emily missing her points

[calidoug]

The NHC and most of the models maintain that westward bend toward the end of the track, so I'm thinking it's gonna happen regardless of how it tracks the rest of this evening. JTWC's got Haitang going in around 25.2 on a WNW heading with a kinda-sorta-similar bend (though not as pronounced) on Wednesday. The NHC takes Emily only as far north as 24.5. I think it would have been a more interesting case had Haitang not weakened as much as it did over Taiwan because that could obviously play a factor in whether or not they would have hit at closer latitudes. I still think the Atlantic/Pacific parallel was pretty good for these storms, especially considering we're in July.

Steve

What happens 1/2-way around the globe with a typhoon has no bearing on what is simultaneously going on over here, JB's bizarre theories (if you can call them that) notwithstanding.

A 6-10 day delay with certain large features influencing the weather over here is one thing. Imaginary instantaneous "parallels" are another matter completely, and a bunch of hogwash, IMO.

[Steve]

>>What happens 1/2-way around the globe with a typhoon has no bearing on what is simultaneously going on over here, JB's bizarre theories (if you can call them that) notwithstanding.

I'm not offering a theory. I'm just saying it was a cool phenomina with a chance to test out and learn a few things (more if Haitang hadn't weakened as much as it did).

I think he uses the 6-10 day east coast trof/ridge one more (as you noted). But if you look at the globe, there seems to be a lot of sharp amplification. In the Northern Atlantic, we're coming out of a positive NAO phase. The water temperature profiles have vaguely matched quite a bit this season too.

>>Imaginary instantaneous "parallels" are another matter completely, and a bunch of hogwash, IMO.

Come on man. There's an obvious parallel. Again, I'm not saying it means anything, but it is interesting. You don't have to like it or you can have a vendetta or whatever. I'm just pointing out the incidence and saying it's a trip for July. But whatever I guess.

Steve

[djtil]

i think all this worry is likely unnecessary.....the models would have to be very far off for there to be real danger in south texas.....a little north might lead to a gusty day but we are talking 120-150 miles off to actually bear the brunt of the now only cat 1 winds. just seems like a freak of nature right now if the forecast track would really be THAT far off.

i dont see any reason that the ridge wont strengthen and push west as advertised....any slight northward bobble now is probably just that...a bobble.

it seems like no matter what the nhc forecasts people gripe that the doomsday alerts arent sounded for a much wider area....in reality that just isnt feasible...and IMO the NHC...and their built in margin of errors..should be trusted.

[deltadog03]

ok, mgc, did you see houstons AFD?? also, i think derek made mention that the GFS was of on intializing emily on the 18z run...BUT, it did CLEARLY show the weakness....and yeah, mgc, the pressures are correct...that high has backed of somewhat....

[Derek Ortt]

120 miles off for a 48 hour forecast is actually not that far off. The mean error is about 160 miles

[deltadog03]

ok, cool..thanks...derek...what did the 00z models intialize for motion do you know?

[Derek Ortt]

300/14

[loon]

alright, powers that be, push this to houston,k , thanks

cheers,
loon

[Derek Ortt]

avni actually this time has a track that passes the giggle test. Comes inland at about 25.2, which is about 50NM south of the border. Depends upon the eye size then as to whether or not Brownsville gets the eye wall

[TampaFl]

Center definatley north of the forecasted track.

Robert


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/archive/tropical.cgi?&&leads_images/tropical/GMH/IR/

[Nimbus]

That ULL to the south of Emily is starting to fill in but it does look like she followed it westward some unless that recent motion is just a wobble.
We are seeing a lot more symmetrical storm now so intensity forecast will probably need to go up.
Hope south Texas gets lucky.

[Derek Ortt]

we aren't seeing the intensificaton though that has been expected

yes, dennis went from a TS to a cat 4 in about 18 hours in the GOM (it likely did weaken to a TS briefly while over Cuba), but it had a tight core. This has become all broad and spread out. Marginal 3 is probably the most this will become now

[Nimbus]

I agree slower spin up with a large eye.
We have 24 + hours till landfall over 30 degree water, I would prefer to see a smaller eye that she would be more likely to outgrow.
I am visualizing rather large wind fields by tomorrow night.

[mahicks]

Center definatley north of the forecasted track.

Robert


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/archive/tropical.cgi?&&leads_images/tropical/GMH/IR/

Awesome link!!! I'll be bookmarking this one!!

[Swimdude]

I'm actually wondering if tomorrow's 40% chance of rain, and Wednesday's 50% chance of rain [for Houston] is from the outer bands of Emily. That certainly looks possible.

[amawea]

calidoug wrote,

"What happens 1/2-way around the globe with a typhoon has no bearing on what is simultaneously going on over here, JB's bizarre theories (if you can call them that) notwithstanding"

Yes, the weather half way around the globe does compare with our weather here. It's troughs, ridges, troughs ridges, all the way around the globe and each one affects the other. Get a grip, J.B. knows more about the teleconnections than you will ever dream of.
Whats your deal with the slamming of an ideaolgy that is in it's infancy as far as forecasting. He's on to something., and I really picked up on it about a year ago.
Amawea

[HouTXmetro]

I'm actually wondering if tomorrow's 40% chance of rain, and Wednesday's 50% chance of rain [for Houston] is from the outer bands of Emily. That certainly looks possible.

With the saturated grounds, any training rain from Emily would not be good for Houston.

[Brent]

Current motion brings it in just south of Brownsville in Mexico...

NHC needs a hurricane warning for South Padre now.

[Portastorm]

Brent, how dare you question the NHC?

[jkt21787]

Sorry Brent, not happening with this advisory.