H Emily Recon Reports
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cycloneye
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H Emily Recon Reports
Until Emily emerges the Yucatan no missions will be flying in but once she splashes completly into the water later today they will go.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:08 am, edited 14 times in total.
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cycloneye
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NOUS42 KNHC 181400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 18 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE EMILY
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/1800,2100,20/0000Z A. 20/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 2005A EMILY B. AFXXX 2105A EMILY
C. 19/1500Z C. 20/0000Z
D. 24.2N 95.6W D. 24.6N 97.1W
E. 19/1700Z TO 20/0030Z E. 20/0200Z TO 20/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
These will be tuesdays missions the last ones for Emily.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 18 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE EMILY
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/1800,2100,20/0000Z A. 20/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 2005A EMILY B. AFXXX 2105A EMILY
C. 19/1500Z C. 20/0000Z
D. 24.2N 95.6W D. 24.6N 97.1W
E. 19/1700Z TO 20/0030Z E. 20/0200Z TO 20/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
These will be tuesdays missions the last ones for Emily.
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djtil wrote:wow.....i knew she was weaker than the estimates but hadnt figured this weak......looks like we are dealing with a tropical storm at this time.
This is still a hurricane, although barely. It will still restrengthen though, we just have to give it time for the core to get its act together, like Dennis did.
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djtil wrote:984 is borderline trop storm/hurricane.........will be interesting to get recon winds.....before landfall wind/pressure ratio was very high.
I would think the 75 mph winds is what recon reported, remember they get the info before we do, and since they have a pressure and center fix, I assumed they got the max winds as well.
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URNT12 KNHC 181800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/1722Z
B. 21 DEG 54 MIN N
90 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2935 M
D. 40 KT
E. 060 DEG 60 NM
F. 145 DEG 77 KT
G. 062 DEG 43 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3058 M
J. 17 C/ 3057 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1605A EMILY OB 08
MAX FL WIND 77 KTS NE QUAD 1714Z
77kts winds in NE quad, that reduces to about 69kts at the surface. So it's still a hurricane.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/1722Z
B. 21 DEG 54 MIN N
90 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2935 M
D. 40 KT
E. 060 DEG 60 NM
F. 145 DEG 77 KT
G. 062 DEG 43 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3058 M
J. 17 C/ 3057 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1605A EMILY OB 08
MAX FL WIND 77 KTS NE QUAD 1714Z
77kts winds in NE quad, that reduces to about 69kts at the surface. So it's still a hurricane.
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Observation number: 10
Time transmitted: 1748Z
Position: 22.2 North 89.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 998 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 663 meters
925 millibar winds: 87 knots // 130
850 millibar height: 1395 meters
850 millibar winds: 72 knots // 145
700 millibar height: 3041 meters
700 millibar winds: 69 knots // 155
EYEWALL
Time transmitted: 1748Z
Position: 22.2 North 89.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 998 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 663 meters
925 millibar winds: 87 knots // 130
850 millibar height: 1395 meters
850 millibar winds: 72 knots // 145
700 millibar height: 3041 meters
700 millibar winds: 69 knots // 155
EYEWALL
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Observation Number: 14
Time: 1830Z
Position: 21.5 North 90.3 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1000 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 43 knots // 245
1000 millibar height: 4 meters
1000 millibar winds 43 knots // 245
925 millibar height: 686 meters
925 millibar winds: 56 knots // 270
850 millibar height: 1419 meters
850 millibar winds: 45 knots//265
700 millibar height: 3068 meters
700 millibar winds: 43 knots // 245
EYEWALL
Time: 1830Z
Position: 21.5 North 90.3 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1000 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 43 knots // 245
1000 millibar height: 4 meters
1000 millibar winds 43 knots // 245
925 millibar height: 686 meters
925 millibar winds: 56 knots // 270
850 millibar height: 1419 meters
850 millibar winds: 45 knots//265
700 millibar height: 3068 meters
700 millibar winds: 43 knots // 245
EYEWALL
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Storm EMILY: Observed By NOAA #3
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 77KT (88.5mph 142.6km/h) In NE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 69.3KT (79.7mph 128.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP FROM DROPSONDE
Date/Time of Recon Report: Monday, July 18, 2005 14:36:00 (Mon, 18 Jul 2005 18:36:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 22° 4' N 90° 28' W (22.1°N 90.5°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2932m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 40nm (46miles) From Center At Bearing 180°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 50KT (57.5mph 92.6km/h) From 248°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 36nm (41.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 172°
Minimum pressure: 983mb (29.03in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: POORLY DEFINED
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 77KT (88.5mph 142.6km/h) In NE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 69.3KT (79.7mph 128.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP FROM DROPSONDE
Date/Time of Recon Report: Monday, July 18, 2005 14:36:00 (Mon, 18 Jul 2005 18:36:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 22° 4' N 90° 28' W (22.1°N 90.5°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2932m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 40nm (46miles) From Center At Bearing 180°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 50KT (57.5mph 92.6km/h) From 248°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 36nm (41.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 172°
Minimum pressure: 983mb (29.03in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: POORLY DEFINED
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
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URNT12 KNHC 182042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/2012Z
B. 22 DEG 16 MIN N
90 DEG 46 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2947 M
D. 35 KT
E. 029 DEG 50 NM
F. 040 DEG 59 KT
G. 283 DEG 29 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3041 M
J. 16 C/ 3061 M
K. 09 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C 60
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 1605A EMILY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 77 KTS NE QUAD 1714Z
A 60 mile-wide eye. Wow.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/2012Z
B. 22 DEG 16 MIN N
90 DEG 46 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2947 M
D. 35 KT
E. 029 DEG 50 NM
F. 040 DEG 59 KT
G. 283 DEG 29 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3041 M
J. 16 C/ 3061 M
K. 09 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C 60
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 1605A EMILY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 77 KTS NE QUAD 1714Z
A 60 mile-wide eye. Wow.
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jkt21787 wrote:OK, 60 mile wide eye is not going to lead to significant strengthening, much like we saw with Frances. Its not tight enough. Maybe I'm off though.
That is exactly what I thought (I hesitated posting to verify my recollection...)
Hard to see how that kind of structure will enable her to do much of anything strengthening-wise.
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