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djtil
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#21 Postby djtil » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:11 am

djtil wrote:
Quote:
Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall


come on....with a comment like that so opposed to any evidence at least state your reasons.


Geez, you make it sound like she said Miami or Tampa! South Texas is in the cone


LOL...I guess you are right.....but only the extreme northern part of the cone....I think JB is forecasting a Miami hit and then on to Denver.
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Swimdude
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#22 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:12 am

Just an observation... Those rain bands are pretty far North. Where do y'all think Emily would have to make landfall to give Houston a shower or two?
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#23 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:18 am

djtil wrote:LOL...I guess you are right.....but only the extreme northern part of the cone....I think JB is forecasting a Miami hit and then on to Denver.


Yeah, but in the cone so I wouldn't think she would need to give some huge spill about how it's possible. :) That's just her prediction within the cone since it likely won't go smack dab down the middle.

Miami, then Denver...funny. But I did see Bastardi on Fox News last night. He explained the high and reasoning behind the forecasted track well for those who don't follow hurricanes as much as most of us here do.
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#24 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:19 am

I'm thinking that south Texas is probably safe from Emily now. I was concerned about the NW movement over the Yucatan but she is cleary turning back towards the WNW as she quickly moves into the BOC.
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#25 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:42 am

Swimdude wrote:Just an observation... Those rain bands are pretty far North. Where do y'all think Emily would have to make landfall to give Houston a shower or two?


Middle Texas coastline, IMO.
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#26 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:50 am

she might be wobbling WNW....interesting on how that ULL continues to sit there and not move....that will not let her move DUE W....that will have to leave for a W track to start...
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#27 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:54 am

Texas will see rain out of this system and maybe some wind too be the center looks to make landfall in Mexico IMHO.
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#28 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:59 am

Emily is not forcast to ever move due west, its been moving on or very near track.. Its going to Mexico, though extreme south Texas will have at least TS conditions to deal with.

Certainly the all clear can be given to anyone north (or east, its a curved coastline, you know what I mean though.) of corpus.
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#29 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:07 pm

I think the southern tip of Texas landfall
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djtil
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#30 Postby djtil » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:06 pm

Emily is not forcast to ever move due west


actually most of the models do have a due west component before landfall.
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#31 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:15 pm

More west now.


Should landfall somewhere near La Pesca, Mexico north of Tampico...
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#32 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:17 pm

Sanibel wrote:More west now.


Should landfall somewhere near La Pesca, Mexico north of Tampico...


yup more westward now your right...
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#33 Postby Kennethb » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:49 pm

It is really a battle of the ULL and Ridge. The models have done really well in figuring that the ridge will win. Look at how the outflow to the northeast is getting flattened, showing the strength of the ridge to push her WNW and eventually West.
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