Back to a westward course

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Back to a westward course

#1 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:19 am

As Emily has emrged over the GOM she has got back on westward track. NHC will probablly keep her track intact with last adv.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#2 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:21 am

I disagree. She's moving NW now. Models initalized at a NW heading.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

#3 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:22 am

Thunder44 wrote:I disagree. She's moving NW now. Models initalized at a NW heading.


Absolutely, you beat me to the post! There's no way Emily is moving westward at the moment .. she's clearly moving northwest. And that is troubling to me as my concerns for south Texas grow by the minute!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#4 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:25 am

Eh....wnw would be a better heading imo.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:26 am

I see no evidence of a turn yet. let's wait for a a few hours of visible imagery before we start jumping to conclusions.

Jan
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

#6 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:30 am

I checked both water vapor and infrared. To my eye, Emily has more of a northwest component than a west component. But yeah, we will all know soon enough.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#7 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:44 am

Emily has been on a more NW course than expected through the Yucatan, imo. However, I would expect the more WNW track to reappear pretty soon because the heights in the rdge to her N have been building as opposed to diminishing. this means it is holding strong and/or even expanding West. The trough traversing North of the ridge could weaken it a little, but it is expected to build back in. I sure hope it does. We don't need a landfalling CAT4 in any of th epopulated areas of the GOM and yes I am including Northern Mexico in that.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#8 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:55 am

I think she is still headed toward the Upper Mexican coastline
despite her earlier NW movement. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#9 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:12 am

Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10252
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

#10 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:19 am

Unbiased look, WNW!!!! Very close to being rate on the NHC track into Mexico!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#11 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:21 am

Well its prolly gonna pass north of theiir forecast point.
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#12 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:26 am

probably so, but well within their cone of error. Emily has missed most every point, maybe a little south, maybe a little north. Hurricanes dont travel in a straight line. There has been no real divergence from the NHC track in the past 4-5 days. Dont expect one now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#13 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:33 am

Between the 11 pm and 5 am advisory... Emily had moved .5N and .5W! But between the 5 and 8 advisory it had moved .6N and .9W! There are the numbers for you folks. Hard to argue with those.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#14 Postby djtil » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:36 am

Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall


come on....with a comment like that so opposed to any evidence at least state your reasons.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#15 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:43 am

ok, to continue earlier post....
between the 8am adv...and 11am adv....6N and .7W...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#16 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:56 am

Looks to me like she was heading NW then took a WNW jog as she emerged over the water.

Looks like land vs. water interaction was in play there. Similiar to Isidore but not as severe.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#17 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:00 am

yeah, i agree she is heading 300 right now...i agree...NW movement right now with WNW wobbles...Time will tell
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#18 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:34 am

I thought the discussion said she was moving at 305... *Shrug* I won't get into this much, I still say N. Mexico.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#19 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:04 am

its right around 300.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#20 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:09 am

djtil wrote:
Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall


come on....with a comment like that so opposed to any evidence at least state your reasons.


Geez, you make it sound like she said Miami or Tampa! South Texas is in the cone. How is that so opposed to any evidence?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 41 guests