NHC Did A Superb Job Forecasting Path

[abajan]

From way back, Emily was forecasted to pass very near to or over Cozumel and that's exactly what it did.

Great work guys!

[cycloneye]

Agree while some had it moving thru the YC they kept all the way with the track towards Yucatan and sadly it occured for Cozumel.

[Stratusxpeye]

They were very correct with Emily. Even 5 days out the general path was pegged. Great Job

[EDR1222]

Agreed, they have done a great job.

[mike18xx]

To be fair, Emily's path inside the Caribbean is about a straight as a bowling ball rolling down the gutter:


With the remants of Dennis squatting over the central US until just the other day, much of the region has been in a holding pattern with nothing at all to bonk Emily away from a plodding WNW course.

[Normandy]

They did, one thing is its exiting the coast a bit quicker than they thought. But their endgame sounds reasonable.

[Swimdude]

It certainly was a VERY straight path, however, there were variables that went into this just like any other storm. If nothing else, the NHC did an excellent job at predicting consistency... Consistently!

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah I'll give the NHC alot of credit. I will never doubt them again.

[Stormcenter]

So far thumbs up IMO!!!!

[Owen]

Yes, they hit the nail on the head with this one, especially after the initial realization that models had a right bias in the first couple advisories when Emily was still way out there.

[dwg71]

Tracking is very reliable, certainly up to 72 hours, and getting better up to 5 days. They still have problems with intensity, it is a lot harder to predict.

[HouTXmetro]

Initially the NHC did have Emily headed north of Hispanolia

[hicksta]

yall it aint over yet

[Hurricaneman]

They did a great job

[dwg71]

yall it aint over yet

Your right it could still hit as far north of the border as 75 miles and as far south as 250, according to NHC cone of error. I would focus a 100 miles either way of the black line.

But the NHC has never had a problem with her and she will not do anything drastic. Like the EA sports video game says "if its in the game, its in the game" 48hours out the NHC has a slogan too "If its in the cone, its in the cone"

[cycloneye]

And today she is going on track.Kudos again to NHC.

[gkrangers]

yall it aint over yet

It is for you.

[Lowpressure]

Path seemed rather straight forward except for ultimate landfall point- would it effect South Texas. They did a great job, but I don't see Emily as being difficult to forecast at least direction wise. They did not do nearly as well on intensity. Only forecasted 115 mph, with only 10% chance of 140mph, never dreamed of 155. Climatology would normally have supported NHC, but this year is different. I also do not think anyone thought exiting the YP at 75 mph. It has been a strange season so far.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

yall it aint over yet

Your right it could still hit as far north of the border as 75 miles and as far south as 250, according to NHC cone of error. I would focus a 100 miles either way of the black line.

But the NHC has never had a problem with her and she will not do anything drastic. Like the EA sports video game says "if its in the game, its in the game" 48hours out the NHC has a slogan too "If its in the cone, its in the cone"

But it is a large cone. Not an Accuweather sized cone but still a big cone. If you make the cone big enough your margin of error is going to look pretty good. That cone from 24 hours out is so big that is hard to imagine the storm getting outside of it. It depends on your perspective. Do you get 50 points for hitting the bullseye or do you get 50 points simply for hitting the board?

[Sanibel]

Headed for La Pesca, Mexico - or a few miles north of town.