I almost hate to say this

#21 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:29 pm

Sanibel wrote:Judging from my previous evaluation of the track, I think the eye is still under the convection where it was before and heading 20 miles south of Cozumel - believe it or not. The eye is tilted because of shear. However, the tilting is towards Cozumel.

Looks like Tulum still.

Actually per the NHC latest advisory she is moving at 18mph.
I agree she does look like she has slowed some but not stalled.

gkrangers · #22 Postby **gkrangers** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:30 pm

My friend just told me hes supposed to go to Tulum on vacation next week. Doh!

Sanibel · #23 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:47 pm

You've misread my post. I believe the actual surface eye is 20 miles south of Cozumel - or even more.

The storm is sheared to the north, so the long distance Cuban radar is picking up the top of the sheared eyewall. The actual center is further south as the landfall readings will show.

Swimdude · #24 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:56 pm

We have to remember that Emily has been moving oddly fast for a hurricane her strength. Even what seems to be "stalling" might only be a slight reduce in forward speed. Even 15 mph is a fairly nice speed.

Sanibel · #25 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:58 pm

Reconnaissance says it is just south of Cozumel. Landfall should see the west eyewall on Tulum and NE quadrant hammering the southern end of Cozumel.

Hurricaneman · #26 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:02 am

Thats gonna hurt

#27 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:14 am

it looks like it is broad brushing cozumel....i will be interested in see ing the new coords..

Normandy · #28 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:15 am

If thats the eye over Cozumel...then Cancun...oh my goodness.

Sanibel · #29 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:18 am

Cozumel is in the worst of it right now with screaming winds and things getting torn up.

I'll bet Cancun is no more than 60mph right now.

Normandy · #30 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:19 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

.....That looks like the eye going over Cozumel.

corpusbreeze · #31 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:20 am

jwayne wrote:because I know I'm gonna get hammered for it, but here goes. Latest sat loop sure looks like emily has almost stalled off of cozumel. tough to tell completely b/c only have water vapor and ir to go by. am I out to lunch?

I was going to post the same thing. So now we can both be slamed. Looks like Emily has hit a wall and slowed down. Look how her north outer edges want to pull north.

I almost hate to say this

Re: I almost hate to say this

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