H Emily Recon Reports

[Terry]

May abe they lost the radar.... ??? The image is gone.

[Brent]

what the you know what

maximum winds now appear to be 145 m.p.h.

This storm is bizarre.

[jkt21787]

Maybe I missed something. Why does this appear to be 145 mph now?

Edit: Nevermind, I see the obs. VERY weird.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 55
Latest Ob Location: 121 mi S of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:39:00Z; 19.7°N 87°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 28 ft; Wind: NNW (329°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 59 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #02: 03:39:30Z; 19.7°N 87.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 35 ft; Wind: NW (325°) @ 54 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #03: 03:40:00Z; 19.7°N 87.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 52 mph; Max Wind: 53 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #04: 03:40:30Z; 19.6°N 87.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 51 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #05: 03:41:00Z; 19.6°N 87.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #06: 03:41:30Z; 19.6°N 87.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #07: 03:42:00Z; 19.6°N 87.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #08: 03:42:30Z; 19.6°N 87.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 03:43:00Z; 19.5°N 87.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 73 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: 03:43:30Z; 19.5°N 87.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 78 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: 03:44:00Z; 19.5°N 87.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 81 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #12: 03:44:30Z; 19.5°N 87.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 03:45:00Z; 19.4°N 87.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: NW (321°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: 03:45:30Z; 19.4°N 87.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: NW (325°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #15: 03:46:00Z; 19.4°N 87.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: NW (321°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 03:46:30Z; 19.4°N 87.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 92 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 28 mph; Max Wind: 29 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #17: 03:47:00Z; 19.3°N 87.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #18: 03:47:30Z; 19.3°N 87.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 97 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: 03:48:00Z; 19.3°N 87.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 99 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #20: 03:48:30Z; 19.3°N 87.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 104 ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 36°F

[HURAKAN]

what the you know what

maximum winds now appear to be 145 m.p.h.

This storm is bizarre.

I think she likes to intensify before hitting land. Remember what she did before making landfall in Grenada?

[mike18xx]

FOR GOODNESS SAKE!
The winds went UP!

-- Why is that surprising?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
....Hit the animate button, quality to 100%, select about fifteen frames, and click Emily.

Ka-boom!

[gkrangers]

FOR GOODNESS SAKE!
The winds went UP!

-- Why is that surprising?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
....Hit the animate button, select about fifteen frames, and click Emily.

Ka-boom!

Yeah, I've been watching...the last few frames its really getting more symetrical, finally. Center is finally getting closer to the center of the CDO.

[Brent]

Where is the center??? This is a Cat 4... I want an eye.

[jkt21787]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4, there is no visible eye! Even Lili had a visible eye when it was a cat 4 didn't it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ivan when it made cat5 for the second in third time was not perfect. This by that data is 145 mph....Interesting storm it must went us to put our guard down.

[gkrangers]

Where is the center??? This is a Cat 4... I want an eye.

Can't be more than 25-30 miles ESE of the southern tip of Cozumel.

[Brent]

Must be the warmer spot in the white there SE of Cozumel.

[Brent]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4, there is no eye! Even Lili had an eye when it was a cat 4 didn't it?

Actually it has an eye.. it's just cloud-covered.

Lili looked a lot better than this... I remember watching satellite loops as it exploded into a Cat 4.

[jkt21787]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4, there is no eye! Even Lili had an eye when it was a cat 4 didn't it?

Actually it has an eye.. it's just cloud-covered.

Lili looked a lot better than this... I remember watching satellite loops as it exploded into a Cat 4.

correct. I meant no *visible* eye. It must be the slightly warmer tops though SE of Cozumel.

[mike18xx]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4

It's a model of cleanliness compared to 150mph Opal, which looked like a bigger-than-average thunderstorm crawling up a front on satellite.

[Derek Ortt]

structurally, this is far better than Lili

Lili when it as at peak intensity didn't even have hurricane winds in the SW quad

[jkt21787]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4

It's a model of cleanliness compared to 150mph Opal, which looked like a bigger-than-average thunderstorm crawling up a front on satellite.

Really. Opal was before my time of tracking this stuff, although I do remember the sat images and it certainly wasn't a very organized system either.

[Brent]

I think this may take the place for most disorganized cat 4

It's a model of cleanliness compared to 150mph Opal, which looked like a bigger-than-average thunderstorm crawling up a front on satellite.

Opal takes the cake for most elongated mess. There were clouds into the big cities of the NORTHEAST and Mid-Atlantic before that came ashore...

[Derek Ortt]

just checked an H-Wind product

we are only seeing surface winds about 85% of the FL winds. So the winds may not be 145 but instead 140

[jkt21787]

With the wind increase now, does anyone want to re-guess whether the pressure will rise or fall in the new VDM? I'm not sure what to expect honestly.