H Emily Recon Reports

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gkrangers

#161 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:13 pm

Are they making a pass or setting up?

Wind field seems very broad?
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#162 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:14 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 28
Time: 0252Z
Latitude: 21.2°N
Longitude: 85.2°W
Location: 109 mi E of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 73 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#163 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:15 pm

gkrangers wrote:Are they making a pass or setting up?

Wind field seems very broad?


They are inbound to the NE quad.

Image
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#164 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:22 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 52
Latest Ob Location: 96 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:09:00Z; 20.5°N 86°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: ESE (118°) @ 88 mph; Max Wind: 88 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #02: 03:09:30Z; 20.5°N 86°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 90 mph; Max Wind: 92 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #03: 03:10:00Z; 20.5°N 86°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 88 mph; Max Wind: 89 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #04: 03:10:30Z; 20.5°N 86°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 85 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 90 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #05: 03:11:00Z; 20.5°N 86.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 90 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #06: 03:11:30Z; 20.4°N 86.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 78 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 88 mph; Max Wind: 88 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #07: 03:12:00Z; 20.4°N 86.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 86 mph; Max Wind: 88 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #08: 03:12:30Z; 20.4°N 86.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 71 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 92 mph; Max Wind: 93 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #09: 03:13:00Z; 20.4°N 86.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 100 mph; Max Wind: 103 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #10: 03:13:30Z; 20.4°N 86.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 100 mph; Max Wind: 103 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #11: 03:14:00Z; 20.3°N 86.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 101 mph; Max Wind: 103 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #12: 03:14:30Z; 20.3°N 86.2°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 47 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 106 mph; Max Wind: 109 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #13: 03:15:00Z; 20.3°N 86.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 37 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 108 mph; Max Wind: 113 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #14: 03:15:30Z; 20.3°N 86.2°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 31 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 113 mph; Max Wind: 118 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #15: 03:16:00Z; 20.3°N 86.2°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 23 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 116 mph; Max Wind: 118 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #16: 03:16:30Z; 20.2°N 86.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 16 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 107 mph; Max Wind: 107 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #17: 03:17:00Z; 20.2°N 86.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 10 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 107 mph; Max Wind: 109 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #18: 03:17:30Z; 20.2°N 86.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 1 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 111 mph; Max Wind: 114 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #19: 03:18:00Z; 20.2°N 86.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -12 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 116 mph; Max Wind: 119 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #20: 03:18:30Z; 20.2°N 86.3°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -23 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 120 mph; Max Wind: 121 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 51°F
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#165 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:23 pm

Im only assuming there are higher winds in that quad....
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#166 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:25 pm

Well...I'm gonna make a 180 and expect a higher pressure, instead of a lower pressure.
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#167 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:31 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 53
Latest Ob Location: 129 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:19:00Z; 20.1°N 86.3°W; PA: 9961 ft; D-Value: -35 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 127 mph; Max Wind: 130 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 52°F
Ob #02: 03:19:30Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -53 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 131 mph; Max Wind: 132 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 53°F
Ob #03: 03:20:00Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -68 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 136 mph; Max Wind: 139 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #04: 03:20:30Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -90 ft; Wind: SSE (154°) @ 143 mph; Max Wind: 145 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 55°F
Ob #05: 03:21:00Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 10069 ft; D-Value: -117 ft; Wind: SSE (155°) @ 149 mph; Max Wind: 156 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 56°F
Ob #06: 03:21:30Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: -134 ft; Wind: SSE (157°) @ 158 mph; Max Wind: 159 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 57°F
Ob #07: 03:22:00Z; 20.1°N 86.4°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -159 ft; Wind: SSE (160°) @ 161 mph; Max Wind: 162 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 57°F
Ob #08: 03:22:30Z; 20.1°N 86.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -189 ft; Wind: SSE (161°) @ 157 mph; Max Wind: 159 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 57°F
Ob #09: 03:23:00Z; 20°N 86.5°W; PA: 9970 ft; D-Value: -225 ft; Wind: SSE (164°) @ 108 mph; Max Wind: 124 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #10: 03:23:30Z; 20°N 86.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -248 ft; Wind: SSE (163°) @ 84 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #11: 03:24:00Z; 20°N 86.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -270 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 03:24:30Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 9957 ft; D-Value: -283 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #13: 03:25:00Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -279 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 28 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #14: 03:25:30Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 9974 ft; D-Value: -276 ft; Wind: S (188°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #15: 03:26:00Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 10033 ft; D-Value: -280 ft; Wind: S (173°) @ 15 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #16: 03:26:30Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -280 ft; Wind: ENE (66°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #17: 03:27:00Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -271 ft; Wind: NE (40°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 36 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: 03:27:30Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9974 ft; D-Value: -256 ft; Wind: N (358°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #19: 03:28:00Z; 19.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -245 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: 03:28:30Z; 19.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 10098 ft; D-Value: -246 ft; Wind: WNW (283°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#168 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:32 pm

What the??!?!?! Its STILL a Cat 4?

I give up on the tropics.
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#169 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:33 pm

162 mph flight level. This will likely stay a cat4 for landfall. I remember last night the max being around 174 mph.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#170 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:33 pm

Normandy wrote:What the??!?!?! Its STILL a Cat 4?

I give up on the tropics.
ME TOO!

FOR GOODNESS SAKE!

The winds went UP!
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#171 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:34 pm

Is it strange that I cant find the center on a Cat4 hurricane?
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#172 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:35 pm

Normandy wrote:Is it strange that I cant find the center on a Cat4 hurricane?
LOL

I've got it on ifrared...but hey...I guess its internal structure is well enough if its still this strong, even if it looks blobby.
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#173 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:36 pm

what the you know what

maximum winds now appear to be 145 m.p.h.
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#174 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:38 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Normandy wrote:Is it strange that I cant find the center on a Cat4 hurricane?
LOL

I've got it on ifrared...but hey...I guess its internal structure is well enough if its still this strong, even if it looks blobby.


Well I see it now....

Stupid hurricane.
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#175 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:39 pm

I wonder what the pressure is now.
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#176 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:39 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 54
Latest Ob Location: 93 mi S of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:29:00Z; 19.9°N 86.6°W; PA: 9941 ft; D-Value: -266 ft; Wind: W (269°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #02: 03:29:30Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -273 ft; Wind: WSW (247°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 50 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #03: 03:30:00Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: -280 ft; Wind: WSW (253°) @ 15 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: 03:30:30Z; 20°N 86.6°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: -281 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 17 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #05: 03:31:00Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -281 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: 03:31:30Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -280 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #07: 03:32:00Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -272 ft; Wind: ENE (64°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 28 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #08: 03:32:30Z; 20°N 86.7°W; PA: 9957 ft; D-Value: -258 ft; Wind: N (5°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #09: 03:33:00Z; 20°N 86.8°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: NNW (343°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 53 mph; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #10: 03:33:30Z; 19.9°N 86.8°W; PA: 10102 ft; D-Value: -211 ft; Wind: NNW (332°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #11: 03:34:00Z; 19.9°N 86.8°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -193 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 76°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 03:34:30Z; 19.9°N 86.8°W; PA: 9974 ft; D-Value: -164 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 76 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #13: 03:35:00Z; 19.9°N 86.8°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: -139 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #14: 03:35:30Z; 19.9°N 86.9°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -116 ft; Wind: NNW (330°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #15: 03:36:00Z; 19.8°N 86.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -86 ft; Wind: NNW (342°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #16: 03:36:30Z; 19.8°N 86.9°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -64 ft; Wind: NNW (348°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: 03:37:00Z; 19.8°N 87°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -42 ft; Wind: NNW (346°) @ 77 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #18: 03:37:30Z; 19.8°N 87°W; PA: 10072 ft; D-Value: -17 ft; Wind: NNW (341°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 68 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #19: 03:38:00Z; 19.8°N 87°W; PA: 10072 ft; D-Value: -3 ft; Wind: NNW (342°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 68 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #20: 03:38:30Z; 19.7°N 87°W; PA: 10036 ft; D-Value: 13 ft; Wind: NNW (341°) @ 58 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 42°F
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#177 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:39 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I wonder what the pressure is now.
Knowing this storm...its probably higher somehow.
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#178 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:41 pm

the eye was visible on cancun radar, though the last image is not prmoising for the radar
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#179 Postby stormie_skies » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:41 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:what the you know what

maximum winds now appear to be 145 m.p.h.


:wall:
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#180 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:43 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the eye was visible on cancun radar, though the last image is not prmoising for the radar
Possible they switched it into a different mode?
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