Hurricane Emily Advisories

[wx247]

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 29


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005


...Dangerous Hurricane Emily approaching the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Emily. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required
for portions of the southern Texas coast and the northeast coast of
Mexico early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 86.5 west or about 50
miles... 80 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 230
miles... 370 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will be near the
northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours and then
move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Emily is expected to
emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. No significant change in strength is likely before
landfall. Some weakening will occur as Emily moves over northern
Yucatan on Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum
central pressure of 955 mb...28.20 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.9 N... 86.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch

[JTD]

*gulp*

What? I'm sorry I don't understand

[wx247]

*gulp*

What? I'm sorry I don't understand

The hurricane watch will likely be issued for Southern Texas. I may be reading too much into it. I am awaiting the discussion.

[Brent]

[Swimdude]

Still 135. Still moving at 18 mph. Still in the mid-950's for pressure. Still moving WNW. Not many changes y'all! Can't wait for the discussion though.

[canegrl04]

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST

[cycloneye]

**Waiting for Discussion**

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 180253
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND
TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB.
THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER
AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND
EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN
SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS
IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED
AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.

INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT
EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS
SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS
HAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR
EMILY...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.9N 86.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 88.9W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 19/0000Z 22.3N 91.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.3N 94.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 96.8W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Brent]

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST

I posted the projected path... looks very similar to the last one. Of course a hurricane watch will go up. It's only going to be 100 miles south and they are still in the cone.

[HurricaneBill]

I can name so many storms that were supposed to be "the big one" but ended up as duds. Such as: Georges,Floyd,Isidore, Lily, Isabel,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Dennis,and now Emily. Thats just in the past 7 years. And we have one significant landfall where it was actually not weakening, which was Charley.

Duds, you say? Because the sustained winds weakened?

My dear boy, there is a lot more to a hurricane than sustained winds. There is this thing called heavy rain and another thing called storm surge.

Let's take a look at these storms' price tags:

Georges: 602 dead and nearly $6 billion in damage.

Floyd: 57 dead and about $6 billion in damage. (Floyd was also the deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since Agnes in 1972.)

Isidore: 4 dead and $330 million in damage.

Lili: 13 dead and $860 million in damage. (Rather costly for a Category 1 hurricane)

Isabel: 17 dead and $3.5 billion in damage

Frances: 7 dead and $9 billion in damage.

Ivan: 95 dead and $14 billion in damage.

Jeanne: 3006 dead and $6 billion in damage.

Dennis: 60 dead and $5 billion in damage.

Emily: Regardless of her intensity at landfall, there WILL be damage.

[Swimdude]

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST

Not too surprising... Even as a cautionary measure...

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 180253
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND
TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB.
THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER
AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND
EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN
SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS
IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED
AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.

INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT
EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS
SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS
HAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR
EMILY...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.9N 86.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 88.9W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 19/0000Z 22.3N 91.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.3N 94.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 96.8W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[mike18xx]

IR presence has just exploded since about 01 UTC on
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

....it's hard to churn cold water up over a reef....

[Swimdude]

Hmmm the discussion is certainly giving excellent reason why Emily should stay exactly on path. I wouldn't be surprised if everything remains exactly how it has been. Just look at the previous few days. Emily's making landfall JUST to the North of where it was predicted nearly 72 hours ago. Not bad, NHC!

[Rainband]

Same old stuff. Texas will get some much needed rain maybe

[cycloneye]

Same old stuff. Texas will get some much needed rain maybe

That will be the best thing Texas will have and they need it badly.

[mike18xx]

Is the plane on the homeward leg yet, or is it still in there?

-- This storm has played (edited by CM) before already, but it sure looks like it's blowing its stack over the last hours. Coldest tops yet.

[gkrangers]

Is the plane on the homeward leg yet, or is it still in there?

-- This storm has played (edited by CM) before already, but it sure looks like it's blowing its stack over the last hours. Coldest tops yet.

I smell an edit coming.

[canegrl04]

If Emily hits where they are projecting her too,there won't be any drought relief for North Texas

[Pebbles]

Is the plane on the homeward leg yet, or is it still in there?

-- This storm has played (edited by CM) before already, but it sure looks like it's blowing its stack over the last hours. Coldest tops yet.

I smell an edit coming.

Um ... *clears throat* ... I would like to kindly remind this is a family oriented board... Edit would be nice