0z models---Just south of Brownsville

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Brent
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0z models---Just south of Brownsville

#1 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:25 pm

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Re: 0z models---Just south of Brownsville

#2 Postby swimaster20 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:27 pm

Brent wrote:Image


I guess they aren't picking up any weakness over Texas :?:
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Re: 0z models---Just south of Brownsville

#3 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:28 pm

swimaster20 wrote:I guess they aren't picking up any weakness over Texas :?:


Actually they have... the models are quite a bit farther north than yesterday. NHC was on the north side of the guidance(i.e. everyone farther south), now they are on the south side.
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#4 Postby wx247 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:30 pm

Thanks for posting this Brent. I am very interested in the latest loop I have seen from the infared. It is getting difficult to pinpoint the exact center from it... so I am anxious to see the discussion at 11.
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#5 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:31 pm

I'm not surprised at the models in the slightest...
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#6 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:31 pm

the are actually in the middle now.
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#7 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:33 pm

I'm still not buying into a Mexican landfall until she clears the Yucatan. I've seen storms act very strange while moving across. Anyone remember how Isidore stalled over the northern tip instead of continuing to move as a major storm towards New Orleans?
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#8 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:34 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I'm still not buying into a Mexican landfall until she clears the Yucatan. I've seen storms act very strange while moving across. Anyone remember how Isidore stalled over the northern tip instead of continuing to move as a major storm towards New Orleans?


Isidore was the most bizarre storm I had ever seen... he actually moved INLAND and sat for 36 hours. Very strange.

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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:37 pm

This is one of the most bizarre I'v seen...But yes the south Atlantic hurricane doe's come very close.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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#10 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:39 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is one of the most bizarre I'v seen...But yes the south Atlantic hurricane doe's come very close.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


That was great... some of the discussions were priceless too. :lol:
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#11 Postby montrealboy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:40 pm

Not the best model for forecasting hurricanes, but here is the 0Z NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml
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#12 Postby amawea » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:40 pm

I can't tell for sure as the center is hard to find right now but it looks to me like the models intialized too far south to begin with. The satellite pics look a little north of where the models have it right now. Maybe a time delay in the input data. Just guessing but it looks north of the models start to me.
Amawea
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#13 Postby FritzPaul » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:41 pm

How about Betsy?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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#14 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:43 pm

Or Elena... evacuated, then called it off, then it turned and they had to evacuate again.

Imagine this board if that were to happen today... it would go up in flames. :lol:

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#15 Postby swimaster20 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:44 pm

Brent wrote:Or Elena... evacuated, then called it off, then it turned and they had to evacuate again.

Imagine this board if that were to happen today... it would go up in flames. :lol:

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:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#16 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:45 pm

The concensus of those models isn't "just south" of B; it's about 150m south, meaning ~30mph winds for B.
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:46 pm

Image[/u]
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#18 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:46 pm

I'm betting by tomorrow those other models will have trended more to the north,too
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#19 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:48 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Image[/u]


OMG!!!!!! :eek:
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#20 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:50 pm

^ Holy @#$%... Didn't even know hurricane Ginger existed... Wow, I like that name for a hurricane... Anyway! That is an insane track.
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