Emily Trying to Reorganize!!

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gk1
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Emily Trying to Reorganize!!

#1 Postby gk1 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:02 pm

She is trying to wrap around, but she is struggling. TWC said that landfall would occur a couple of hours before midnight. Don't think it will happen!!!
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gkrangers

#2 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:04 pm

Emily vs the ULL

Round 2 or 3?
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jwayne
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#3 Postby jwayne » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:08 pm

bet ya a nickel the nhc finally mentions this pesky little ull in 11:00pm discussion. If they don't, then maybe I'm just an idiot for thinking that it can have a huge effect on speed and direction of emily if it stays stationary.
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Swimdude
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#4 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:17 pm

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djtil
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#5 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:20 pm

based on the sat the recon winds are very surprising......i would have to think they are on a decreasing trend as pressures rise...winds may just be a bit behind.
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EDR1222
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#6 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:31 pm

jwayne wrote:bet ya a nickel the nhc finally mentions this pesky little ull in 11:00pm discussion. If they don't, then maybe I'm just an idiot for thinking that it can have a huge effect on speed and direction of emily if it stays stationary.


Sure enough the mentioned it in their 11:00 pm discussion. Apparently it was causing some shear which may have contributed to some slight weakening of the system.

From NHC

A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS
IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED
AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.
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