upper level low in bay of campeche

[jwayne]

that darn ull has not moved an inch in the last 4 hours. What's up with that? That more northly turn should occur soon unless I am way off on my analysis of the likely effect of the ull on Emily.

[Normandy]

Something has to give, it cant just plow through that ULL.

[hicksta]

so should we suspect a N turn soon.. the models dont show it

[Normandy]

Well if the ULL starts moving then Em should just keep wnw.

[hicksta]

Its not moving.. and em looks like shes taking a NW turn

[Sanibel]

The ULL possibly scooped dry air all the way from Mexico down, under, and around Emily - which could explain a lot. As well as shear.


The ULL is larger than small Emily. If Emily manages to get it to its SW side after re-emerging in the Gulf we could see a big boost from outflow venting...

[Normandy]

How would the ULL feed dry air to Em? Its eastern side is pulling moisture from the EPAC.

[jwayne]

here's what may be a dumb question: if that ull does not start moving, how the heck does emily NOT end up in the central gulf heading towards the central tx coast (or maybe even further right)? someone please educate me on how emily could possibly go THROUGH an ULL rather than AROUND IT?

[deltadog03]

here's what may be a dumb question: if that ull does not start moving, how the heck does emily NOT end up in the central gulf heading towards the central tx coast (or maybe even further right)? someone please educate me on how emily could possibly go THROUGH an ULL rather than AROUND IT?

It prob..won't go through it...i don't think thats possible...It does appear to be just sitting there....that should push it more to the NW or so, i would tend to believe....

[loon]

What did the models say about the ULL? Did they pick it up at all? Was it supposed to move out? (forgive me if this has been answered, I've been out for quite a few days and not able to follow Emily very well)

cheers,
loon

[Normandy]

here's what may be a dumb question: if that ull does not start moving, how the heck does emily NOT end up in the central gulf heading towards the central tx coast (or maybe even further right)? someone please educate me on how emily could possibly go THROUGH an ULL rather than AROUND IT?

No it would just get nudges NW for a while and head back wnw.

[Swimdude]

^ In other words, this would place it more towards Brownsville / Corpus Christi, correct?

[jwayne]

here's what may be a dumb question: if that ull does not start moving, how the heck does emily NOT end up in the central gulf heading towards the central tx coast (or maybe even further right)? someone please educate me on how emily could possibly go THROUGH an ULL rather than AROUND IT?

No it would just get nudges NW for a while and head back wnw.

If you look at water vapor loop, it appears to me that north/northwest flow around ull extends all the way to the northern gulf. I think this turn will be much more than a nudge unless the ull begins backing west or southwest.

[stormie_skies]

What did the models say about the ULL? Did they pick it up at all? Was it supposed to move out? (forgive me if this has been answered, I've been out for quite a few days and not able to follow Emily very well)

cheers,
loon

I believe it was supposed to move out as Em moved in (at least according to Dan Meador @KHOU) .... I havent heard any mets mentioning it or its impacts thus far, tho....

[loon]

Cool, thanks, I suspect it will move out then, but hey, gives us something to watch now....a small small monkey wrench thrown into the works.


cheers,
loon

[Sanibel]

The ULL is large. It can transport Mexican continental air all the way down from dry Mexico and into Emily. Shear too.


The ULL can't push a 135mph cyclone and the entire Atlantic/Gulf ridge above it. The ridge will win.

Emily should get to its NE side where it will vent nicely over hot SST's.

[Houstonia]

The trough over Texas is still holding strong. I can hear the thunder outside as I type.

good point...if you don't believe us read the 5pm discussion...some models have trended northward over the last couple of runs...i will really be watching this thing...

This from Hou/Galv NWS. Looks like the ridge is building:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
814 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PWS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...1.97 AT LAKE CHARLES AND
1.86 AT CORPUS CHRISTI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADUAL DRYING WILL
CONTINUE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONES TONIGHT WILL
BE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TO 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. 46

[loon]

I was agreeing, I think, I was saying the ULL should get moved, I was just saying that it is something to watch happen as so far the track and everything has been right on target, and its at the least interesting to see something not EXACTLY happening as expected, in the short term. My question would be is it enough to push Em over the Yuc before she heads back WNW causing zero interaction with land? My bet is no, just curious though...

cheers,
loon

[Stormcenter]

The trough over Texas is still holding strong. I can hear the thunder outside as I type.

good point...if you don't believe us read the 5pm discussion...some models have trended northward over the last couple of runs...i will really be watching this thing...

This from Hou/Galv NWS. Looks like the ridge is building:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
814 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PWS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...1.97 AT LAKE CHARLES AND
1.86 AT CORPUS CHRISTI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADUAL DRYING WILL
CONTINUE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONES TONIGHT WILL
BE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TO 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. 46

Did someone forget to tell Emily?

[jkt21787]

The trough over Texas is still holding strong. I can hear the thunder outside as I type.

good point...if you don't believe us read the 5pm discussion...some models have trended northward over the last couple of runs...i will really be watching this thing...

This from Hou/Galv NWS. Looks like the ridge is building:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
814 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PWS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...1.97 AT LAKE CHARLES AND
1.86 AT CORPUS CHRISTI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADUAL DRYING WILL
CONTINUE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONES TONIGHT WILL
BE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TO 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. 46

One interesting thing about that though is they say "through the middle of the week". Its Sunday. So will it be gradually building and nothing huge, will it not starting building until the middle of the week, or what. I haven't looked at much if anything in regards to the ridge other than from here or NWS discussions, so I'm not sure what happens with it.