H Emily Recon Reports

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gkrangers

#101 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:29 pm

Latest GOES EAST image shows a very strong looking closed eyewall...
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#102 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:30 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 35
Latest Ob Location: 155 mi ESE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 00:19:00Z; 19.7°N 85.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -117 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 145 mph; Max Wind: 146 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 55°F
Ob #02: 00:19:30Z; 19.8°N 85.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -91 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 136 mph; Max Wind: 139 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #03: 00:20:00Z; 19.8°N 85.6°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -68 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 139 mph; Max Wind: 141 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #04: 00:20:30Z; 19.8°N 85.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -54 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 132 mph; Max Wind: 135 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 53°F
Ob #05: 00:21:00Z; 19.8°N 85.6°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -37 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 127 mph; Max Wind: 130 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 52°F
Ob #06: 00:21:30Z; 19.8°N 85.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -24 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 123 mph; Max Wind: 124 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #07: 00:22:00Z; 19.9°N 85.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -9 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 120 mph; Max Wind: 121 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #08: 00:22:30Z; 19.9°N 85.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 4 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 116 mph; Max Wind: 118 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #09: 00:23:00Z; 19.9°N 85.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 14 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 112 mph; Max Wind: 113 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #10: 00:23:30Z; 19.9°N 85.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 26 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 108 mph; Max Wind: 111 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #11: 00:24:00Z; 19.9°N 85.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 35 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 105 mph; Max Wind: 105 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #12: 00:24:30Z; 20°N 85.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 101 mph; Max Wind: 104 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #13: 00:25:00Z; 20°N 85.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 51 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 97 mph; Max Wind: 98 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #14: 00:25:30Z; 20°N 85.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 96 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #15: 00:26:00Z; 20°N 85.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 63 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #16: 00:26:30Z; 20°N 85.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 68 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 93 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #17: 00:27:00Z; 20°N 85.3°W; PA: 10046 ft; D-Value: 71 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 89 mph; Max Wind: 92 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #18: 00:27:30Z; 20.1°N 85.3°W; PA: 9944 ft; D-Value: 71 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 91 mph; Max Wind: 92 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #19: 00:28:00Z; 20.1°N 85.3°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 76 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 83 mph; Max Wind: 84 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #20: 00:28:30Z; 20.1°N 85.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 80 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 86 mph; Max Wind: 86 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 46°F

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Last edited by senorpepr on Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:30 pm

0019 1944N 08539W 03049 5117 139 126 096 096 127 02983 0000000000

127 kts
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#104 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:39 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 16
Time: 00:14:10Z
Latitude: 19.6°N
Longitude: 85.8°W
Location: 123 mi SSE of Cancun, Mexico
Minimum height at 700 mb 2707 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 81 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 30 mi SW (225°)
Maximum flight level wind: WNW (303°) @ 89 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi SW (215°)
Sea level pressure: 952 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 59°F at 10003 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9934 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 110 KT NW QUAD 23:05:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 215 / 8NM
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#105 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:40 pm

by the looks of the latest VDM Emily isnt doing the predicted strengthening
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#106 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:0019 1944N 08539W 03049 5117 139 126 096 096 127 02983 0000000000


127 kts


So it's still a Cat 4...
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#107 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:42 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 36
Latest Ob Location: 180 mi SSW of Havana, Cuba

Ob #01: 00:29:00Z; 20.1°N 85.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 84 mph; Max Wind: 84 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #02: 00:29:30Z; 20.1°N 85.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 82 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #03: 00:30:00Z; 20.2°N 85.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 83 mph; Max Wind: 83 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #04: 00:30:30Z; 20.2°N 85.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 93 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 78 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #05: 00:31:00Z; 20.2°N 85.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 77 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #06: 00:31:30Z; 20.2°N 85.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 98 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 77 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #07: 00:32:00Z; 20.2°N 85.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 77 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #08: 00:32:30Z; 20.3°N 85.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 103 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 75 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #09: 00:33:00Z; 20.3°N 85.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 104 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #10: 00:33:30Z; 20.3°N 85.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #11: 00:34:00Z; 20.3°N 85°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #12: 00:34:30Z; 20.3°N 85°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #13: 00:35:00Z; 20.4°N 85°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 75 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #14: 00:35:30Z; 20.4°N 85°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 75 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #15: 00:36:00Z; 20.4°N 85°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #16: 00:36:30Z; 20.4°N 84.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: 00:37:00Z; 20.4°N 84.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #18: 00:37:30Z; 20.5°N 84.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #19: 00:38:00Z; 20.5°N 84.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #20: 00:38:30Z; 20.5°N 84.8°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 43°F
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#108 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:42 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:by the looks of the latest VDM Emily isnt doing the predicted strengthening


Its eye is closed and has widened from the last Vortex, so id say its strentghening.
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#109 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:44 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:by the looks of the latest VDM Emily isnt doing the predicted strengthening
Strengthening takes hours, not minutes.

Give it time. Satellite imagery is improving, and the winds are still Category 4 strenght. I do think it'll maintain its current strength, or pickup a little punch before landfall.
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#110 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:44 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:by the looks of the latest VDM Emily isnt doing the predicted strengthening


Ummm... by the looks of the recon data, Emily is maintaining it's strength and not weakening.
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#111 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:50 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 37
Latest Ob Location: 158 mi SSW of Havana, Cuba

Ob #01: 00:39:00Z; 20.5°N 84.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #02: 00:39:30Z; 20.5°N 84.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #03: 00:40:00Z; 20.6°N 84.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #04: 00:40:30Z; 20.6°N 84.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #05: 00:41:00Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #06: 00:41:30Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #07: 00:42:00Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #08: 00:42:30Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #09: 00:43:00Z; 20.7°N 84.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: 00:43:30Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: 00:44:00Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 136 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 00:44:30Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: 00:45:00Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 66 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #14: 00:45:30Z; 20.8°N 84.6°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: 00:46:00Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #16: 00:46:30Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: 00:47:00Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 81 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #18: 00:47:30Z; 20.9°N 84.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 79 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #19: 00:48:00Z; 20.9°N 84.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #20: 00:48:30Z; 20.9°N 84.6°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 68 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 43°F
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#112 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:51 pm

yeah the satellite presentation is looking stronger... eye is still pretty cold though... pressure DID rise a mb... but I suppose it is just getting off of its weakening phase earlier
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#113 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:51 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 20
Time: 0045Z
Latitude: 20.8°N
Longitude: 84.6°W
Location: 148 mi E of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (130°) @ 70 mph
Temperature: 45°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#114 Postby Guest » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:52 pm

I dont understand the NHC thinking. The flight level supported 140mph not 135. The uul is what also slowing this down and only moving about 5-10 mph ealier. it baffles me why NHC kept saying it was moving 20mph when it wasnt even moving 10. Also the NHC is busting its forecast track.
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#115 Postby dhweather » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:52 pm

senorpepr wrote:Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 37
Latest Ob Location: 158 mi SSW of Havana, Cuba

Ob #01: 00:39:00Z; 20.5°N 84.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #02: 00:39:30Z; 20.5°N 84.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #03: 00:40:00Z; 20.6°N 84.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #04: 00:40:30Z; 20.6°N 84.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #05: 00:41:00Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #06: 00:41:30Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #07: 00:42:00Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #08: 00:42:30Z; 20.6°N 84.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #09: 00:43:00Z; 20.7°N 84.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: 00:43:30Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: 00:44:00Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 136 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 00:44:30Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: 00:45:00Z; 20.7°N 84.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 66 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #14: 00:45:30Z; 20.8°N 84.6°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: 00:46:00Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #16: 00:46:30Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: 00:47:00Z; 20.8°N 84.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 81 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #18: 00:47:30Z; 20.9°N 84.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 138 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 79 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #19: 00:48:00Z; 20.9°N 84.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #20: 00:48:30Z; 20.9°N 84.6°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 68 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 43°F



Say, what's a "D-Value" ?
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#116 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:53 pm

D-value is the deviation of actual altitude along a constant pressure surface from the standard atmosphere altitude of that surface.
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#117 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:54 pm

crispcane wrote:I dont understand the NHC thinking. The flight level supported 140mph not 135. The uul is what also slowing this down and only moving about 5-10 mph ealier. it baffles me why NHC kept saying it was moving 20mph when it wasnt even moving 10. Also the NHC is busting its forecast track.


Well, recon hadn't sampled all of the storm at the time of the advisory, so it was an estimate based off of pressure which, in my opinion, wasn't half shabby. The NHC isn't too far off on their forecast, but I'd like to see you do better.
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#118 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:55 pm

crispcane wrote:I dont understand the NHC thinking. The flight level supported 140mph not 135. The uul is what also slowing this down and only moving about 5-10 mph ealier. it baffles me why NHC kept saying it was moving 20mph when it wasnt even moving 10. Also the NHC is busting its forecast track.

The 140 mph wind came in after the 8 pm advisory, its only 5 mph so its not huge. We're still talking about a cat 4 here.

As far as the track, overall things are great on it, not a bust at all. The NHC will take down the forward speed if necessary, right now its not a huge issue that requires NHC to issue a special advisory. This thing is still about to hit the Yucatan and cause a lot of damage, whether it hits in 3 hours or 6 hours.
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Normandy
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#119 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:56 pm

Forward speed is huge....it probably will have a big deal in determining the landfalling intensity (whether it be 145 or 155 so on).
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tw861
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#120 Postby tw861 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:57 pm

Has anyone noticed the points of the last two fixes ?

17/2258z 19.4/85.6
18/0014z 19.6/85.8

.2n/.2w = NW

Could be a jog but this is the first true NW movement i've seen from any of
the fixes from Emily to this point
Last edited by tw861 on Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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