DARK- DARK RED COMING Back

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

DARK- DARK RED COMING Back

#1 Postby rtd2 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:26 pm

Around the Core....Looking better,,,




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#2 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:30 pm

Northern eyewall area is interesting. Looks to almost be broken curently. Recon will be key. I do not think it looks any better through that loop at all. Just my opinion.
0 likes   

User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:

#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:36 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Northern eyewall area is interesting. Looks to almost be broken curently. Recon will be key. I do not think it looks any better through that loop at all. Just my opinion.


Yes the cyclone may possibly be undergoing an ERC if the NHC is correct about the radar showing a new Outer Eyewall Forming.

Thank god for the people in the path of this storm that it possibly is.
0 likes   

Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:36 pm

Looks like the eyewall is closed.
0 likes   

Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:38 pm

also looks like some shear is getting at her and she is brushing up against the high. Thats as far north as she will go IMHO. Land will knock her down a peg. Hopefully it weakens and Mexico isn't hit twice by a powerful storm :(
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#6 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:40 pm

Rainband wrote:also looks like some shear is getting at her and she is brushing up against the high. Thats as far north as she will go IMHO. Land will knock her down a peg. Hopefully it weakens and Mexico isn't hit twice by a powerful storm :(


As far north as shell go???? Your kidding right? The NHC has her going much farther north than she is now....
0 likes   

Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:45 pm

Normandy wrote:
Rainband wrote:also looks like some shear is getting at her and she is brushing up against the high. Thats as far north as she will go IMHO. Land will knock her down a peg. Hopefully it weakens and Mexico isn't hit twice by a powerful storm :(


As far north as shell go???? Your kidding right? The NHC has her going much farther north than she is now....
I meant if you follow the periphery of the high :lol: :roll: IE she is brushing up against it. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#8 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:47 pm

Rainband wrote:
Normandy wrote:
Rainband wrote:also looks like some shear is getting at her and she is brushing up against the high. Thats as far north as she will go IMHO. Land will knock her down a peg. Hopefully it weakens and Mexico isn't hit twice by a powerful storm :(


As far north as shell go???? Your kidding right? The NHC has her going much farther north than she is now....
I meant if you follow the periphery of the high :lol: :roll: IE she is brushing up against it. :lol:


Gotcha.
0 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

#9 Postby Raebie » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:48 pm

Sure looks like she's going through an ERC to me...

http://www.stormtrack.org/special/rad-canc_anim.gif
0 likes   

Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:49 pm

could be..
0 likes   

gkrangers

#11 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:51 pm

If you tally up all the ERC posts here...Emily would have been going through one its entire lifecycle, and thats just not possible. :D
0 likes   

Rainband

#12 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:53 pm

gkrangers wrote:If you tally up all the ERC posts here...Emily would have been going through one its entire lifecycle, and thats just not possible. :D
true.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#13 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:54 pm

Heck...its possible its undergone or undergoing internal cycles we have yet to pick up on and identify....
0 likes   

cancunkid
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:48 pm
Location: Landlocked Ozarks

#14 Postby cancunkid » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:56 pm

Does the amount of rain in the storm effect how well the radar reads? I ask that because the radar never seems to show as wicked a looking storm as satellite and I know locally our radar is about 25 miles east of us and once the storm passes us here often it looks very weak because the radar can't read as well in heavy rain. Is that true of all radars or just our crappy Hillbilly one here?
0 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

#15 Postby Raebie » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:58 pm

gkrangers wrote:If you tally up all the ERC posts here...Emily would have been going through one its entire lifecycle, and thats just not possible. :D


Hey. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

;-)
0 likes   

gkrangers

#16 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:00 pm

cancunkid wrote:Does the amount of rain in the storm effect how well the radar reads? I ask that because the radar never seems to show as wicked a looking storm as satellite and I know locally our radar is about 25 miles east of us and once the storm passes us here often it looks very weak because the radar can't read as well in heavy rain. Is that true of all radars or just our crappy Hillbilly one here?
Yes, heavy precipiation can and does prevent the signal from accurately passing through the entire system.

Radar has a hard time penetrating to the far side of the storm when its far away.
0 likes   

User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:

#17 Postby FritzPaul » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:05 pm

cancunkid wrote:Does the amount of rain in the storm effect how well the radar reads? I ask that because the radar never seems to show as wicked a looking storm as satellite and I know locally our radar is about 25 miles east of us and once the storm passes us here often it looks very weak because the radar can't read as well in heavy rain. Is that true of all radars or just our crappy Hillbilly one here?



The higher the cloud tops (stronger precip.) are the harder it is for the radar to "see" whats beyond them.

Correct me if I'm wrong... I think it's called Attenuation.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#18 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:07 pm

FritzPaul wrote:
cancunkid wrote:Does the amount of rain in the storm effect how well the radar reads? I ask that because the radar never seems to show as wicked a looking storm as satellite and I know locally our radar is about 25 miles east of us and once the storm passes us here often it looks very weak because the radar can't read as well in heavy rain. Is that true of all radars or just our crappy Hillbilly one here?



The higher the cloud tops (stronger precip.) are the harder it is for the radar to "see" whats beyond them.

Correct me if I'm wrong... I think it's called Attenuation.
Correct.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#19 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:12 pm

ULL disrupted storm bursting black tops over the Caribbean Gulf Stream...
0 likes   

calidoug
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:13 pm

#20 Postby calidoug » Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:22 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Northern eyewall area is interesting. Looks to almost be broken curently. Recon will be key. I do not think it looks any better through that loop at all. Just my opinion.


Yes the cyclone may possibly be undergoing an ERC if the NHC is correct about the radar showing a new Outer Eyewall Forming.

Thank god for the people in the path of this storm that it possibly is.


Not quite. It's too early. Looks like it may be finished in a few hours, strengthening right into landfall.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 190 guests