H Emily Recon Reports

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#21 Postby ohiostorm » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:34 pm

Yeah thats true. Eye is definately covering over. Some good news.
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#22 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:12 pm

Observation Number: 01
Time: 1932Z
Position: 18.2 North 67.7 West


Observation Number: 02
Time: 2002Z
Position: 18.0 North 70.5 West

Observation Number: 03
Time: 2030Z
Position: 17.9 North 73.2 West

Observation Number: 04
Time: 2100Z
Position: 18.0 North 76.0 West


URNT11 KNHC 171937
97779 19320 10182 67700 73100 03014 69//9 /5761
RMK AF302 1405A EMILY OB 01

000

URNT11 KNHC 172005
97779 20020 10180 70500 73200 99005 68//2 /5763
RMK AF302 1405A EMILY OB 02

URNT11 KNHC 172033
97779 20304 10179 73200 73200 06012 68881 /5763
RMK AF302 1405A EMILY OB 03

URNT11 KNHC 172103
97779 21004 10180 76000 73200 06015 67732 /5763
RMK AF302 1405A EMILY OB 04

They look to be traveling at about 320 knots...a more or less direct path to the storm at that speed puts them about 1 hour 45 minutes away (and yes, that accounts for Emily's movement away from them)...



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#23 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:26 pm

Recon is still at cruising altitude...

Image
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#24 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:27 pm

Is there a NOAA flight scheduled?
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#25 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:30 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Is there a NOAA flight scheduled?


There are two synoptic flights active right now. One by the USAF and one by the NOAA. This is in addition to the USAF fix flight.
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#26 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:30 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Is there a NOAA flight scheduled?


The Gulfstream IV (NOAA9) upper-air flight is going on right now...first dropsonde ob from that was sent out at 1905Z...
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#27 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:33 pm

Sorry about that guys...

When is the earliest their info would be put into the models, or what runs would be the first ones to use them?
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#28 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:35 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Sorry about that guys...

When is the earliest their info would be put into the models, or what runs would be the first ones to use them?


00Z runs...I'll keep an eye out for the upper-air ingest message (sent when the NAM run starts) to make sure of that, however.
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#29 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:36 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2130Z
Latitude: 18.0°N
Longitude: 79.0°W
Location: 146 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 24000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 13 mph
Temperature: 0°F
Dewpoint: -8°F
Weather: Broken Skies
400mb height: 25000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#30 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:43 pm

senorpepr wrote:Recon is still at cruising altitude...

Image


This is absolutely incredible!! I don't know about anyone else, but I'm impressed! We are truly not worthy. :wink:

~Beth~
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#31 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:14 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 06
Time: 2200Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 81.8°W
Location: 300 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 24000 feet
Flight level wind: S (190°) @ 21 mph
Temperature: 3°F
Dewpoint: -13°F
Weather: Rainshowers
400mb height: 24900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#32 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:21 pm

Okay... recon has dropped their altitude...

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 22
Latest Ob Location: 291 mi N of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

Ob #01: 22:09:00Z; 18.1°N 82.5°W; PA: 23668 ft; D-Value: 423 ft; Wind: SSW (202°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: 22:09:30Z; 18.1°N 82.5°W; PA: 22549 ft; D-Value: 407 ft; Wind: SSE (166°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #03: 22:10:00Z; 18.1°N 82.6°W; PA: 21381 ft; D-Value: 388 ft; Wind: SSE (152°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #04: 22:10:30Z; 18.1°N 82.6°W; PA: 20358 ft; D-Value: 369 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 35 mph; Max Wind: 36 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: 22:11:00Z; 18.2°N 82.7°W; PA: 20367 ft; D-Value: 364 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: 22:11:30Z; 18.2°N 82.7°W; PA: 19731 ft; D-Value: 363 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 36 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 22:12:00Z; 18.2°N 82.7°W; PA: 18399 ft; D-Value: 341 ft; Wind: S (170°) @ 35 mph; Max Wind: 36 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: 22:12:30Z; 18.2°N 82.8°W; PA: 17064 ft; D-Value: 312 ft; Wind: S (171°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 39°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #09: 22:13:00Z; 18.2°N 82.8°W; PA: 15899 ft; D-Value: 286 ft; Wind: S (172°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 36°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #10: 22:13:30Z; 18.2°N 82.9°W; PA: 14911 ft; D-Value: 263 ft; Wind: S (170°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 32°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #11: 22:14:00Z; 18.2°N 82.9°W; PA: 13953 ft; D-Value: 244 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 36°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #12: 22:14:30Z; 18.2°N 83°W; PA: 13087 ft; D-Value: 224 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 40°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 22:15:00Z; 18.2°N 83°W; PA: 12211 ft; D-Value: 205 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: 22:15:30Z; 18.2°N 83.1°W; PA: 11243 ft; D-Value: 183 ft; Wind: SSE (160°) @ 35 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #15: 22:16:00Z; 18.2°N 83.1°W; PA: 10302 ft; D-Value: 154 ft; Wind: SSE (156°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #16: 22:16:30Z; 18.2°N 83.1°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 144 ft; Wind: SSE (158°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #17: 22:17:00Z; 18.2°N 83.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 142 ft; Wind: SSE (156°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: 22:17:30Z; 18.2°N 83.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #19: 22:18:00Z; 18.2°N 83.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: 22:18:30Z; 18.2°N 83.3°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 142 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
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#33 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:23 pm

Here we go let's see what recon finds. I am very interested in the eyewall structure- it will be key.
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#34 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:24 pm

Yes im also interested in the eyewall structure....if they find a closed one.
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#35 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:30 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 23
Latest Ob Location: 259 mi NE of La Ceiba, Honduras

Ob #01: 22:19:00Z; 18.2°N 83.3°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #02: 22:19:30Z; 18.2°N 83.4°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 142 ft; Wind: SSE (157°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: 22:20:00Z; 18.2°N 83.4°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 144 ft; Wind: SSE (156°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: 22:20:30Z; 18.2°N 83.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 143 ft; Wind: SSE (161°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: 22:21:00Z; 18.2°N 83.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 147 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #06: 22:21:30Z; 18.2°N 83.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 145 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 22:22:00Z; 18.2°N 83.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 144 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: 22:22:30Z; 18.2°N 83.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 147 ft; Wind: S (169°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 22:23:00Z; 18.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 147 ft; Wind: S (169°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: 22:23:30Z; 18.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 143 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: 22:24:00Z; 18.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 142 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #12: 22:24:30Z; 18.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 143 ft; Wind: SSE (168°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #13: 22:25:00Z; 18.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: SSE (168°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #14: 22:25:30Z; 18.2°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #15: 22:26:00Z; 18.2°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #16: 22:26:30Z; 18.2°N 84°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #17: 22:27:00Z; 18.2°N 84°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: 22:27:30Z; 18.2°N 84°W; PA: 9967 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: S (180°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #19: 22:28:00Z; 18.2°N 84.1°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: 22:28:30Z; 18.2°N 84.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
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#36 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:40 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 24
Latest Ob Location: 286 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 22:29:00Z; 18.2°N 84.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: S (174°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #02: 22:29:30Z; 18.2°N 84.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: 22:30:00Z; 18.2°N 84.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: S (179°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: 22:30:30Z; 18.2°N 84.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: S (182°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: 22:31:00Z; 18.2°N 84.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #06: 22:31:30Z; 18.2°N 84.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 22:32:00Z; 18.2°N 84.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: 22:32:30Z; 18.2°N 84.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 22:33:00Z; 18.2°N 84.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: S (181°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #10: 22:33:30Z; 18.3°N 84.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #11: 22:34:00Z; 18.3°N 84.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #12: 22:34:30Z; 18.3°N 84.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #13: 22:35:00Z; 18.3°N 84.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #14: 22:35:30Z; 18.4°N 84.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: S (185°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #15: 22:36:00Z; 18.4°N 84.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #16: 22:36:30Z; 18.4°N 84.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: S (185°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 47 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #17: 22:37:00Z; 18.4°N 84.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 104 ft; Wind: S (188°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #18: 22:37:30Z; 18.5°N 84.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #19: 22:38:00Z; 18.5°N 84.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 50 mph; Max Wind: 50 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #20: 22:38:30Z; 18.5°N 84.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 98 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 47 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#37 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:42 pm

Recon hasnt been there in awhile. They really seem late to me.
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#38 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:44 pm

Scorpion wrote:Recon hasnt been there in awhile. They really seem late to me.


I think they are right on schedule with what was discussed earlier today. I can't remember who said it exactly but we werent to expect them until between 6 and 7 tonight.

~Beth~
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#39 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:45 pm

Scorpion wrote:Recon hasnt been there in awhile. They really seem late to me.


Well, the planes can only go so fast.
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#40 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:46 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 07
Time: 2231Z
Latitude: 18.2°N
Longitude: 84.3°W
Location: 240 mi NE of La Ceiba, Honduras
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: S (190°) @ 38 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: S (190°) @ 35 mph
Remarks: None
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