Trough building over Texas

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HouTXmetro
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Trough building over Texas

#1 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:15 pm

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Look at the trough and explosion of thunderstorms over Texas and Louisiana extending into the Eastern Great Lakes. Now look at the reinforcement trough extending from New Mexico up into the Western Great Lakes.

Many said the High is suppose to build and push the Texas trough back. However, the trough appears to be remainding strong and the trough right behind it is digging and about the enter the Texas Panhandle. Looks likes it will make it in time to erode the High ridge even more if you ask me.
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#2 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:20 pm

I might add a few days ago, NOLA NWS stated the models were intializing the trough to warm. Maybe they were right.
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#3 Postby corpusbreeze » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:20 pm

I think Emily is going to be influenced by that, and pulled up. Question is how high will she go.
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:24 pm

corpusbreeze wrote:I think Emily is going to be influenced by that, and pulled up. Question is how high will she go.


CCbreeze check your PM's please :wink:
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#5 Postby perk » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:24 pm

I have that link bookmarked,and i see exactly what you're talking about.It's going to be interesting to see how the models are going to handle this feature in the upcoming days.
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#6 Postby hicksta » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:26 pm

i agree. the question is how far north will she pull.
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#7 Postby WhiteShirt » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:26 pm

I'm no weather expert, so, can ya'll interpret, please. Will this scenario ya'll are talking about cause emily to move more northerly or away from the texas coast. and if it causes it to move more northerly, well, just how far up the coast are we talking about? thanks.
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#8 Postby thetraveler » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:27 pm

I think she would have to slow down and move further north to be influenced by the trough. Only my humble opinion of course. Hopefully she wont and steam full speed ahead westward. BTW here is the latest from the buoy that is north of the eye by sixty miles or so. Check out the wave heights.
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 58.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 32.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.44 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.26 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.6 °F
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#9 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:30 pm

im sure the nhc is taking the short wave into consideration, and move the track north or south if necessary
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#10 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:33 pm

WOW, great post...very interesting indeed
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Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:35 pm

Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.
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#12 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:38 pm

Rainband wrote:Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.


Hmmmmmm I think it will be very close. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#13 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:38 pm

Rainband wrote:Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.


rain band, the question is not right now...its after...when it gets into the gulf...and the reason its right on that fcst point is becuase they updated it at 5pm....they adjusted it to the right...
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#14 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:38 pm

Rainband wrote:Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.


... don't think it will be that cut and dried, but hope you're right.
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#15 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:39 pm

Anyone north of corpus can breath easier and anyone in galveston,houston area are not going to get Emily. Its not going to happen. NHC has ridge under control, if its weaker it will go to the northern edge of cone if its stronger it will go to the southern edge.

This is not a hard storm for them to forcast. Trust the cone..
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#16 Postby jbgreig » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:40 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:I'm no weather expert, so, can ya'll interpret, please. Will this scenario ya'll are talking about cause emily to move more northerly or away from the texas coast. and if it causes it to move more northerly, well, just how far up the coast are we talking about? thanks.


OK, I know this it OT. I just can't take it anymore.

Y'all is not spelled ya'll!! It's a contraction --> you all. Thus y'all! :P

Sorry, see that too often, had to get it off of my chest...
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Rainband

#17 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:41 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Rainband wrote:Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.


Hmmmmmm I think it will be very close. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
:wink: Use water Vapor it's is much more accurate for these images :wink:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#18 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:41 pm

dwg71 wrote:Anyone north of corpus can breath easier and anyone in galveston,houston area are not going to get Emily. Its not going to happen. NHC has ridge under control, if its weaker it will go to the northern edge of cone if its stronger it will go to the southern edge.

This is not a hard storm for them to forcast. Trust the cone..


thats a pretty bold statement...it may come back to prove you wrong...
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#19 Postby WhiteShirt » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:42 pm

jbgreig wrote:
WhiteShirt wrote:I'm no weather expert, so, can ya'll interpret, please. Will this scenario ya'll are talking about cause emily to move more northerly or away from the texas coast. and if it causes it to move more northerly, well, just how far up the coast are we talking about? thanks.


OK, I know this it OT. I just can't take it anymore.

Y'all is not spelled ya'll!! It's a contraction --> you all. Thus y'all! :P

Sorry, see that too often, had to get it off of my chest...


Really? I didn't know that! Well, at least I've learnt sumthin today :D :D :D :D
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Stormcenter
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#20 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:42 pm

dwg71 wrote:Anyone north of corpus can breath easier and anyone in galveston,houston area are not going to get Emily. Its not going to happen. NHC has ridge under control, if its weaker it will go to the northern edge of cone if its stronger it will go to the southern edge.

This is not a hard storm for them to forcast. Trust the cone..
\\

Since when does the NHC control High pressure ridges? LOL!!!
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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