mike18xx wrote:Judging from 2000Z vis, I say intensifying (read: high maximum gusts) at landfall.
Im sorry.
Emily is not intensifying right now...it looks like garbage. Maybe itll gain strentgh later, but now right now.
Hurricane Emily Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Innotech
- Category 5
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look at the dfvorak. This isnt exactly a rapidly weakening storm. It looksl ike an ERC this itme. I know thats thrown around al ot, but the eye decreased in size and got ragged and disappeared while the core stayed very convective with little sign of weakening. I really think its an ERC. HOpefully it will be in them iddle of that as it hits land so as to really deliver a blow to the storms intensity.
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Brent
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Normandy wrote:Well do you honestly think it looks like a 145 mph cane right now? Id venture to guess its weakened to about 125mph, so 100 kts isnt quite wishful imo (if it doesnt get its act together).
I don't know... this storm has been weird for days now.
I think it's probably closer to 135 mph...
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#neversummer
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Brent
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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z SUN JUL 17 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 84.4W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z SUN JUL 17 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 84.4W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
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Brent
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- Age: 36
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 320 MILES... 515
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
THIS EVENING.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 320 MILES... 515
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
THIS EVENING.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
-
stormie_skies
- Category 5
- Posts: 3318
- Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
- Location: League City, TX
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005
the last reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
indciated that the central pressure of Emily had risen to 948
mb...and that the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased
to 134 kt in the north quadrant. Since the plane left...there are
mixed signals on the structure. Satellite imagery shows that the
overall cloud pattern is better organized and that there has been
significant cloud top cooling near the center. However...the eye
has become much less distinct. The initial intensity is set to 125
kt based on the last aircraft data. The Cancun radar suggests an
outer eyewall may be forming...although the radar can not yet
reliably see the precipitation east of the eye.
The initial motion is 295/17...just a little right of 6 hr ago.
There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely
due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the
southern U.S. Ridge. Large-scale models are now calling for more
of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This
causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while
Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to
forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico.
The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response
to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance
envelope instead of the northern edge. This change in the forecast
track increases the threat to southern Texas.
Given the cooling tops and the improvement in the overall cloud
pattern...a burst of intensification prior to landfall cannot be
ruled out. However...if an outer eyewall is forming this becomes
less likely. Emily should weaken after landfall...then
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. How much Emily could
intensify over the Gulf will depend on just what structure emerges
from Yucatan...so there is a larger than normal possible error on
the 24-48 hr intensity forecasts. Nevertheless...Emily is expected
to make landfall on the North American Mainland as a major
hurricane.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 19.4n 85.2w 125 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 20.4n 87.5w 125 kt...inland
24hr VT 18/1800z 21.8n 90.4w 90 kt...over water
36hr VT 19/0600z 23.0n 93.2w 100 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 23.9n 95.7w 105 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 21/1800z 25.5n 105.0w 20 kt...inland dissipating
120hr VT 22/1800z...dissipated
$$
the last reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
indciated that the central pressure of Emily had risen to 948
mb...and that the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased
to 134 kt in the north quadrant. Since the plane left...there are
mixed signals on the structure. Satellite imagery shows that the
overall cloud pattern is better organized and that there has been
significant cloud top cooling near the center. However...the eye
has become much less distinct. The initial intensity is set to 125
kt based on the last aircraft data. The Cancun radar suggests an
outer eyewall may be forming...although the radar can not yet
reliably see the precipitation east of the eye.
The initial motion is 295/17...just a little right of 6 hr ago.
There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely
due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the
southern U.S. Ridge. Large-scale models are now calling for more
of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This
causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while
Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to
forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico.
The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response
to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance
envelope instead of the northern edge. This change in the forecast
track increases the threat to southern Texas.
Given the cooling tops and the improvement in the overall cloud
pattern...a burst of intensification prior to landfall cannot be
ruled out. However...if an outer eyewall is forming this becomes
less likely. Emily should weaken after landfall...then
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. How much Emily could
intensify over the Gulf will depend on just what structure emerges
from Yucatan...so there is a larger than normal possible error on
the 24-48 hr intensity forecasts. Nevertheless...Emily is expected
to make landfall on the North American Mainland as a major
hurricane.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 19.4n 85.2w 125 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 20.4n 87.5w 125 kt...inland
24hr VT 18/1800z 21.8n 90.4w 90 kt...over water
36hr VT 19/0600z 23.0n 93.2w 100 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 23.9n 95.7w 105 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 21/1800z 25.5n 105.0w 20 kt...inland dissipating
120hr VT 22/1800z...dissipated
$$
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-
mike18xx
It looks like Charlie or Opal right now: smallish CDO with God-knows-what is going on around a still-veiled eye. Fortunately, wind radii have probably decreased relative to yesterday, but that may only be temporary.Normandy wrote:Well do you honestly think it looks like a 145 mph cane right now?.
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mike18xx wrote:It looks like Charlie or Opal right now: smallish CDO with God-knows-what is going on around a still-veiled eye. Fortunately, wind radii have probably decreased relative to yesterday, but that may only be temporary.Normandy wrote:Well do you honestly think it looks like a 145 mph cane right now?.
Well true i guess Opal is a good reminder....looked horrible for a 916 mb storm.
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-
stormie_skies
- Category 5
- Posts: 3318
- Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
- Location: League City, TX
Agreed, Brent. The NHC couldn't be much more blunt about it:
The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response
to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance
envelope instead of the northern edge. This change in the forecast
track increases the threat to southern Texas.
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I guess that has been my issue with what some people have been saying about it weakening...things aren't adding up...cloud tops are cooling while the eye disappears??? I do think ERC gets bandied about too much on this forum but that is what seems to be happening in this case.
Shawn
Shawn
Last edited by shawn67 on Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Visual of definite cooling of cloudtops (click on "IR Loop") :
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none
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-
wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Let the nailbiting begin....
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38088
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
stormie_skies wrote:Agreed, Brent. The NHC couldn't be much more blunt about it:The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response
to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance
envelope instead of the northern edge. This change in the forecast
track increases the threat to southern Texas.
That said... the NHC track is only a few miles more northward... 105 miles south of Brownsville at 11pm CDT Tuesday Night. I still think if it hits Texas it would be around Brownsville, no farther north than Kenedy County.
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#neversummer
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