Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

425
WTNT45 KNHC 171447
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HR. THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED. THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 946 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 130 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR FORECAST TRACK. EMILY REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH A WEAKNESS
PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN 36-48 HR OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS. WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN
INTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES
NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS
OF SHEAR AT THIS TIME. EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR
FLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
YUCATAN... THEN RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY
AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 18.6N 83.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W 130 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W 110 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W 85 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[stormie_skies]

WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Is it just my imagination, or does it sound like NHC is concerned that the models are not initializing the ridge properly???

[wxwatcher91]

so even THEY dont really know why Emily is weakening

[gkrangers]

so even THEY dont really know why Emily is weakening

Because when it comes to the dynamics of a hurricane, the experts know little, and we know nothing.

[Stratosphere747]

WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Is it just my imagination, or does it sound like NHC is concerned that the models are not initializing the ridge properly???

They are putting their guidence on the northern side, to compensate just in case.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming less distinct.

[mike18xx]

so even THEY dont really know why Emily is weakening

Because when it comes to the dynamics of a hurricane, the experts know little, and we know nothing.

It looks to me like there's a fair deal of southerly mid-level shear (at right angle to track).

[gkrangers]

so even THEY dont really know why Emily is weakening

Because when it comes to the dynamics of a hurricane, the experts know little, and we know nothing.

It looks to me like there's a fair deal of southerly mid-level shear (at right angle to track).

The 11AM discussion noted the southern outlfow becomming restricted.

[HURAKAN]

Eye once again becoming more defined.

[mike18xx]

Note the locations of the really warm SSTs versus cooler waters around the north end of the Yucatan; if Emily traverses and re-emerges south of 20N, she could re-intensify considerably quicker than if she clipped the north end (as Gilbert did).

[/url]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS EMILY SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT STILL AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 145 MPH...
235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
THEN EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 46 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[calidoug]

Note the locations of the really warm SSTs versus cooler waters around the north end of the Yucatan; if Emily traverses and re-emerges south of 20N, she could re-intensify considerably quicker than if she clipped the north end (as Gilbert did).

That would be HUGELY offset by the reduction in weakening from spending significantly less time over land in the case of a northern "clip".

[mike18xx]

When's the next plane in?

Whatever morning re-organization looks like it's done, and, for the first time along her whole route, exhaust is now excellent to the south -- and it looks (on visible at least) like Emily is bombing rapidly.

-- Not good, since she'd still be intensifying right up to landfall instead of maxing out early and then EWRC like Gilbert at landfall.

[Scorpion]

Cat 3 IMO at landfall. Bad hurricane weakens again. Seems to be the norm.

[Normandy]

Cat 3 IMO at landfall. Bad hurricane weakens again. Seems to be the norm.

Yes its very interesting isnt it.

[Thunder44]

This storm can comeback quickly before landfall late tonight.

[mike18xx]

Judging from 2000Z vis, I say intensifying (read: high maximum gusts) at landfall.

[Hurricaneman]

I hope it doesnt

[Scorpion]

Everyone says "oh they will intensify soon" when its actually weakening. 100 knot landfall IMO.