NGM

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hicksta
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NGM

#1 Postby hicksta » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:08 pm

is the ngm model anyone to be trusted. The 00z shows the high backing off

Image
Last edited by hicksta on Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:10 pm

link? so we can see..
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#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:11 pm

link
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#4 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:13 pm

that map would still indicate northern mex/brownsville landfall..
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#5 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:13 pm

The 48hr position of Emily is very improbable, so I would tend to discount this.
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#6 Postby dhweather » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:13 pm

Watch the loop - Emily continues West into Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:15 pm

Makes sense to me
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#8 Postby hicksta » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:17 pm

dwg71 wrote:that map would still indicate northern mex/brownsville landfall..


I accutaly pointed the plots/cotinued its course it would be a little N of corpus
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#9 Postby dwg71 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:19 pm

hicksta wrote:
dwg71 wrote:that map would still indicate northern mex/brownsville landfall..


I accutaly pointed the plots/cotinued its course it would be a little N of corpus


but notice ridge is still in place to north of your map...thats also assuming it gets to that location in 48hrs.
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#10 Postby hicksta » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:20 pm

True. It just rose my eyebrowls
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#11 Postby Wthrman13 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:21 pm

The NGM model is a very old model which hasn't been updated in years (i.e. the code hasn't changed). They basically continue to run it, as far as I know, for statistical purposes, i.e., to produce model output statistics which involve regression equations to observed data, but it's virtually worthless otherwise.
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#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:22 pm

I guess it might be right, but who knows
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#13 Postby hicksta » Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:22 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:The NGM model is a very old model which hasn't been updated in years (i.e. the code hasn't changed). They basically continue to run it, as far as I know, for statistical purposes, i.e., to produce model output statistics which involve regression equations to observed data, but it's virtually worthless otherwise.


Ah, alright good :wink:
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