Possible ERC?
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Pebbles
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Possible ERC?
I think Emily is doing an ERC? Yes? NO? Not really up to date on what she's doing as haven't been able to look up info today to decide on what she's up to.
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Brent
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Don't think so... recon hasn't reported 2 eyewalls, and at 11am:
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN
INTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES
NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS
OF SHEAR AT THIS TIME. EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR
FLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN.
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN
INTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES
NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS
OF SHEAR AT THIS TIME. EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR
FLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN.
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#neversummer
I think people tend to grasp onto a cyclogenetic explanation for storm happenings when the case is it could be weakening for other reasons.
Still, it is surprising it is stumbling in west of Jamaica prime waters over the Caribbean portion of the Gulf Stream.
The fact that the core is so healthy with deep reds tells you the potential is there but something is interfering...
Still, it is surprising it is stumbling in west of Jamaica prime waters over the Caribbean portion of the Gulf Stream.
The fact that the core is so healthy with deep reds tells you the potential is there but something is interfering...
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Pebbles
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- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
That's why I asked... They storm, besides they eye looking off, looked pretty good.. just didn't know what was going on, and wasn't assuming it was an ERC (i'm one of those in the ERC term is overused camp)... just asking if it was 
Not up to tabs like I usually am before starting to post so not sure what's going on with Emily today except she's fluctuating and there might of been a explanation for it.
Not up to tabs like I usually am before starting to post so not sure what's going on with Emily today except she's fluctuating and there might of been a explanation for it.
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