Where will Em make initial landfall

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Where will Em make initial landfall

Cancun or just to the north
4
12%
Cancun to Cozumel (including Cozumel)
16
47%
Cozumel to Tulum (including Tulum)
10
29%
Tulum to Felipe Carrillo Puerto (inclding Felipe Carrillo Puerto)
2
6%
Felipe Carrillo Puerto to Chetumal (including Chetumal)
0
No votes
Felipe Carrillo Puerto to Chetumal (including Chetumal)
0
No votes
In Belize
0
No votes
It will pass through the Yucatan Channel
2
6%
 
Total votes: 34
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wxmann_91
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Where will Em make initial landfall

#1 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:39 am

Where do you think Emily will make landfall initially?
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Sanibel
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#2 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:34 am

Just north of Punta Allen and south of Cozumel. Whether people will admit it or not the storm has veered slightly west. Probably in reaction to contacting the new ridge above it over the Gulf it is transferring to from the Caribbean.

The storm soul theory shows itself in the return to the tiny eye Emily first had.
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#3 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:46 am

Maybe it is becoming a day/night trend.

I'm with you Sanibel with the more westward movement last night, but so far this morning it has taken that NW jog.

At this rate Cozumel would be a direct hit.
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:51 am

No way. Look at the loops.


What I'm shocked at is the weakening in prime waters in favorable conditions.


At this rate Emily will cross the thick of Yucatan and have trouble restrengthening over the southern west Gulf...
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#5 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:08 pm

11am coordinates-18.6 N 83.6 W
Now(based on GHCC imagery)-18.9 N 84.1 W

Extrapolation takes it across the south end of Cozumel Island a little north of the NHC track...

South end of Cozumel-20.3 N 86.9 W
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:18 pm

Curious the deep reds have swung south of the center...
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#7 Postby Windtalker » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:Curious the deep reds have swung south of the center...
meaning?
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#8 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:Curious the deep reds have swung south of the center...


any idea what that might mean??
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will not hit the....

#9 Postby Windtalker » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:07 pm

Yucatan....will go through the channel.
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#10 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:12 pm

Cancun not even close to being prepared for something this strong. They need to start by bringing in the giant Mexican flag that is hoisted near the pirate ship dinner cruises.
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#11 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 4:23 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Maybe it is becoming a day/night trend.

I'm with you Sanibel with the more westward movement last night, but so far this morning it has taken that NW jog.

At this rate Cozumel would be a direct hit.


Not only is Cozumel looking like a direct hit, but it may even slide up enough to put Cancun in danger of a direct hit.
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