TWC at it Again

[BLHutch]

Well, I hope that Brownsville is spared the brunt of this storm. I, for one, do not think it is what they need to get their priorities straight.

[Derek Ortt]

the area is not taking the potential for disaster seriously if they think Harry Potter is more important than a possible cat 2 or 3 hurricane in the general area. It took the worst to convince many that one should not focus on the forecast track, but the general area surrounding the track. I hope it doesn'tt ake the worst to convince the region to take these very seriously, but history shows that it does

[perk]

Katdaddy you're right, the NHC has mentioned that possible weakness in the ridge several times, but has not as of yet incorporated that factor into the forecast track.Now having said that any reasonable person on the Texas coastline that visits their website,reads their discussion, and view the projected track has no reason to get freaked out.

[Innotech]

UNfortunately these days, Derek is right. It takes a major catastrophe to bring about change. No one wishes for people to die, but osmetimes disaster is what its gonna take before major changes happen. Look at the Tsunami in Sumatra for example. No one wants that to happen obviously, but state and local govts arent oging to be shocked into action until the tragedies happen.

[BLHutch]

the area is not taking the potential for disaster seriously if they think Harry Potter is more important than a possible cat 2 or 3 hurricane in the general area. It took the worst to convince many that one should not focus on the forecast track, but the general area surrounding the track. I hope it doesn'tt ake the worst to convince the region to take these very seriously, but history shows that it does

On this, I agree 100%. The problem is education, education, education. People need to be aware of that. I think the problem with a lot of local forecasters is that they seem to only talk about "the cone". If you are not in the middle of it, or just outside it, then everything is ok. To the average viewer who doesn't know any better, they take that to the bank. Unfortunately, I really don't think that will ever change.

Brady

[Derek Ortt]

Then the local TV stations need to get competent mets who will educate the people so that we dont have to go through a total disaster to become aware of the dangers. They are providing a terrible disservice

[BLHutch]

Then the local TV stations need to get competent mets who will educate the people so that we dont have to go through a total disaster to become aware of the dangers. They are providing a terrible disservice

We do have some good ones here...Dr. Frank, for example. But we have others who seem barely competent. Mind you, this is all my opinion. One station focuses more on Radar the Weather Dog than the weather. IMO.

Brady

[perk]

Not only do they have Radar as a weather personality,i've seen billboards with him and Frank Billingsley on them.

[Tigerfan]

I actually heard on Fox radio a few days ago a little update on Emily and the guy said " Emily is a very powerful storm in the carribean and it looks like this one won't hit Florida." In his voice he implied - since it will not hit Florida it's not news anymore!! Guess we don't count from Florida westward!!

[Innotech]

I actually heard on Fox radio a few days ago a little update on Emily and the guy said " Emily is a very powerful storm in the carribean and it looks like this one won't hit Florida." In his voice he implied - since it will not hit Florida it's not news anymore!! Guess we don't count from Florida westward!!

I seriously doubt he meant that. he probably meant finally FLoridians have a break for once.

[Portastorm]

Derek, I wish you would approach your civil emergency preparedness judgments with the same dedication to facts/data that you appear to hold to when it comes to your forecasting skills.

To take one event and one particular location and extrapolate that to a judgment that two-thirds of the Texas coast is "unprepared" is simply faulty logic.
---------------
Michael

[Steve]

Big overreaction. Sorry. This is Sunday. Rest assured if the threat materializes for the southern Texas coast, it will be the lead story in tomorrow's paper, Tuesday's and perhaps several days thereafter.

JMO

Steve

[Stormtrack]

It should be noted that although the Brownsville paper doesn't have Emily as the lead story, both the McAllen and Harlingen papers do.

[southerngale]

Derek, I'm more than a little disappointed that you would wish a major storm on an area because someone who works at a newspaper there chose to run a Harry Potter story over Emily. Not the choice I would have made, but that in no way reflects the entire area.

Perhaps less Texans are posting because as of now, Emily is projected to hit Mexico. Yes, deep south Texas is in the cone but when Dennis was about 3 days out, it could have hit anywhere from Florida to Lousiana, not to mention the MANY posters concerned up and down the western Florida peninsula and south Florida. Although Emily could strike south Texas and will be affected regardless, there's no denying how overwhelmingly more were in the "potential" path of Dennis, thus more concern and activity. Seems perfectly logical to me. Also, perhaps Texans (generally speaking, not all) don't post at the rapid speed many of our wonderful Floridian members do.

[southerngale]

I guess I will wade in on this subject... Claudette was suppose to go in way south of the metro houston area and it went from a t/s to a cat 2 in less than 12 hours if i recall. People were unaware of this and it was too late to really take any precautions. It was almost like Charlie in the fact it ramped up quickly and it went where people werent expecting it. As far as Texans are concerned a hurricane was forecasted to hit the Port Arthur area a few years back (cant remember the name) and the traffic leaving that area was tremendous. People came to Cleveland Texas via hwy 105 and it was a nightmare trying to get around town. SO I think that we do take these things seriously and watch and wait. When the time comes we will do what we have to do to help each other and work together in the aftermath to make things right again. Just like in Allison and Alicia and Carla... Have a great day.

Perhaps you're talking about Hurricane Lili in 2002? When Lili was a cat 4 in the GOM, the projected path was on our doorstep and they ordered an evacuation. A lot of people left, but it turned before many did so most people didn't even leave. If you thought that was bad, just wait until one threatens this area and gets much closer. The evacuation for Andrew in 1992 was a nightmare and they supposedly improved things, but since so many didn't leave for Lili, it wasn't a true test.

[Hurricaneman]

I dont know why anybody would stay when a cat 4 hurricane is coming to them, even if it weakens

[jeff]

People in Claudette were shown on the news boarding up in the eye wall and many interviewed after the storm said they were planning on evacuating the morning that it made landfall. Not exactly good preparation for those in central Tx from that storm. Maybe because it was "only" a tropical storm the night before it made landfall or something

I would use Claudette as the exception. Facing a tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane does not really compare to a 3,4,5. Claudette deepened quickly before and through landfall and in the end there was only modest surge flooding. Some were surprised at the wind damage, but getting people to understand the intensity forecast problems is like cutting your arms off. Most do not understand the "potential" for development. I would use Bret (99) as a decent example of response, but even here the landfall was in a sparse population areas, however Corpus and Brownsville did take Bret very seriously.

Once watches go up tomorrow, people and local EOC's will really ramp up preparations. Local and state govt. has been on top of this since Friday afternoon, but at this time mainly behind the scenes prep. work is going on (ie. getting people in the right places, ect)

[Innotech]

I dont know why anybody would stay when a cat 4 hurricane is coming to them, even if it weakens

I sure as hell didnt and I live 30 miles inland.

[Kludge]

Glad you posted...I just heard Mike Siddel Say that, and I was shocked!!

"You folks in Brownsville, South Texas, looks like you're out of the woods" Sheesh.

I have also noticed there is much much less airtime for Emily than for Dennis. Is this because landfall in Mexico is just not that important? I guess so.

Zip

I for one hope that TWC will dispatch Siedel to South Padre Island, and tell him to stand on the beach all week with his reports. Since he's so sure Em is heading to Mex, he shouldn't have any worries, right??