TWC at it Again

[stormie_skies]

During Claudette, we were assured for DAYS that the storm was going to hit Brownsville. The system was supposed to turn. Yet, it kept marching closer and closer to us, only to veer away from Houston/Galveston at close to the last minute. If people were unprepared for that, it was because the NHC dropped the ball big time. As did our local wx folks. The lesson to be learned from that is to be prepared no matter what the models say. They can be wrong.

And Texans do take hurricanes seriously. I don't know why you'd think otherwise. We have a history with hurricanes surpassed only by Florida. I have lived on the Texas gulf coast my entire life. I for one, take storms seriously.

Brady

Exactly! I remember the local mets swearing over and over that she HAD to turn, she HAD to turn .... people on the central/eastern coast weren't prepared & boarded up because NHC had said up until 3 + days before landfall that Claudette was going to Mexico, and they were still forecasting a hit south of Corpus the morning before she made landfall! She surprised everyone, including the mets. Its not exactly fair to judge concern and willingness to prep on a storm like her....we were just really, really lucky she didnt strengthen more than she did.

Oh, and what was the culprit with Claudette? A building ridge that stayed weak and took its time. And people wonder why so many central and eastern Texans are watching Em with an eagle eye on here.... The models didn't even begin to recognize the weakness in the ridge until Claudette was well into the Gulf, BTW .....Claudette was a slow mover, so the NHC had some time to adjust.....how much time would we have to adjust if Em found a weaker ridge???

[KatDaddy]

The TPC again mentions a weakness in the ridge developing and the possbility of a more Nward track.

Large-scale models forecast the ridge to generally persist...with a weakness perhaps developing in 36-48 hr over the western Gulf Coast as a mid-latitude shortwave trough passes to the north. Track model
guidance is in good agreement on a general west-northwest motion
for 36-48 hr...followed by a gradual turn toward the west as the
weakness in the ridge fills. Whether the weakness will be strong
enough to allow a more northward track than currently forecast is
questionable. However...the track after 36 hr is along the
northern side of the guidance envelope.

[wx247]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

[Galvestongirl]

I dont think it is that texans dont take this seriously, I think that if it isnt going to hit their immidate area or near their area, they go about business as usual. Which in my book is O.K., they keep up with it on the news and feel bad for the people, but the world doesnt stop because a hurricane hit brownsville, we simply supply aide to help them get on thier feet (texasn are very generous when it comes to helping others less fortunate) and go on living. I keep a close eye on the tropics because I enjoy it.

[Ixolib]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

Point well made. Perhaps I can edit the post with a more descriptive title to the table. I'm open to suggestions!!

[Agua]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

The point of the graphic is the focus mentioned in your second paragraph. I don't know why it would be misleading. All anyone has to do is read.

[Galvestongirl]

also I mentioned in another thread some informaton I found.....in over 130 years, texas has had 67 hits/near hits.....that is not many in my book.

[BLHutch]

Here is a NWS link on the Hurricane History of Texas.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm

It is pretty exact going back to the early 19th Century.

Brady

[HurryKane]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

The point of the graphic is the focus mentioned in your second paragraph. I don't know why it would be misleading. All anyone has to do is read.

What Agua said. The graphic does, after all, list the actual hits in the 2nd column and there it is clear that Florida has had the most, with Texas second. The heading over the last column is also quite clear and states the purpose of the graphic.

Also, for people being surprised that Louisiana has more coastline than Texas--most of Texas' coast is, shall we say, straightforward. Few turns and twists. Louisiana's coastline is like fine filigree lace that if you were to unravel into a straight line, would be a lot longer than you'd initially think. Pop up your Google Earth and check it out.

Thanks for posting the graph, Ixolib, I had tried to find the percentage of coastline vs. state borders once but was unsuccessful. This graph tells me what I really wanted to know anyway

[wx247]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

Point well made. Perhaps I can edit the post with a more descriptive title to the table. I'm open to suggestions!!

Don't think you need to edit. I don't mean to come off sounded harsh either. I just know that some people might look at it and not know how to interpret it.

[wx247]

If you are trying to say that Mississippi and Alabama have more hurricanes then this is misleading and does not say that. Florida and Texas have had the most hurricanes... period.

If you are saying that the chance that the same area would be hit with a hurricane should one occur (therefore have more reason to worry) then yes Mississippi and Alabama should be at the top of your list.

I guess what I am trying to say is that to the uninformed, they will look at this graph and think that Alabama gets hit more often than Florida... which is wrong. It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

The point of the graphic is the focus mentioned in your second paragraph. I don't know why it would be misleading. All anyone has to do is read.

Obviously you are better at stats than the average person. I guess that comes from me teaching high school students. Sometimes they can't interpret simple sentences.

[Agua]

It is just that when Alabama gets hit, usually most that state's coastline does,too.

That's true, but that's not the point of the graphic. It demonstrates that you are more likely to suffer a direct hit living at location "X" on the Albama Coast than living at position "X" in Florida. That's a different concept than simply a single storm affecting the entire area.

[Agua]

I guess that comes from me teaching high school students. Sometimes they can't interpret simple sentences.

I gotcha man. But I don't know how you would present that concept in a table otherwise, unless you ordered it by total # of storms, and that would seem misleading as it would detract from the point trying to be made.

[Stormtrack]

You won't see the same level of evacuation from the RG Valley that you would in Florida. These are mostly poor Hispanics, not rich retirees. They can't afford the gas, even if they have a vehicle that could make it. And with the price of plywood being what it is, you can forget about them buying any of that!

[mike18xx]

That is shocking. Brownsville is very much in the forecast cone.

...and half of Brownsville is built of chickenwire and plywood.

[Derek Ortt]

The landfall region for Claudette was under a Hurricane WQarning more than 24 hours in advance. The fact that it came in as a strong cat 1 should not have been a surprise, IT WAS FORECAST! That is severe lack of preparation and understanding. You were under the hurricane warning, which is always the overriding consideration

As for Brownsville having Harry Potter as the top story, maybe a visit from Emily is what they need to get their priorities straight. That's also not taking the storm seriously

North Texas seems to be a lot better preparaed (maybe due to Dr Neil Frank's influence) that is the central and south coast

[BLHutch]

So are unprepared residents to blame when their own local mets are telling them the storm is not going to come near them? For that is what happened during Claudette.

I am appalled that you suggest that Brownsville needs a visit from Emily to get their priorities straight. You would wish death and destruction upon a city? Simply to teach them a lesson? That is sickening.

Brady

[Galvestongirl]

So are unprepared residents to blame when their own local mets are telling them the storm is not going to come near them? For that is what happened during Claudette.

I am appalled that you suggest that Brownsville needs a visit from Emily to get their priorities straight. You would wish death and destruction upon a city? Simply to teach them a lesson? That is sickening.

Brady

yes, it is horrible, that area is very poor...preps, what preps can a person do with limited income. As a nursing student, I have been there, most of the residents have to live with very serious diseases because of the lack of medical care, which is due to the lack of income, the person who said the area was made up mostly of chicken wire and plywood is more correct than they will ever know.

[Derek Ortt]

then the mets should have been fired. However, it is not exactly a secret that 1. a Hurricane is not a point and 2. Forecasts of 24 hours are subject to a 70NM error. You were within the cone; thus, you should have been fully prepared for a category 1 hurricane, just like Punta Gorda should have been last year

[perk]

Well Derek i agree with one thing you said.Texans on the central to northern gulf coast are better prepared due to the influence of Dr.Neil Frank, he's pushed the need for being prepared if you live on any coastline that is hurricane prone,and he has certainly pushed that philosophy from the day he set foot here in Houston.As for the article you eluded to, that is the decision of the editor of that newspaper,and may not be the overall thinking of people in south Texas.