H Emily Recon Reports

[cycloneye]

Let's see what this mornings mission will bring.

[cycloneye]

155
URNT11 KNHC 171119
97779 11164 10172 80400 67000 19025 63718 /8037
RMK AF308 1105A EMILY OB 08

[senorpepr]

Sorry to hop in here like this, but I feel this needs to be addressed. This is a reply to a comment in yesterday's recon thread...

I will speak up for Wnghs2007... I very much doubt he wants anyone to die or get hurt from this storm, but him just like I wants to see another record broken... you cant ignore the awesomeness of a cat 5 even though it IS tremedously dangerous.

anyway, either way Emily will strike as a cat 4 or maybe a 5... not much difference in the two in terms of what will happen on land... both would be devastating... only, cat 5 would break the record

we dont wish it on anyone... we wish for the strength and then if possible, a fish...

Well, isn’t that just special? See, this really isn’t about seeing a record broken or not. It an overzealous thrill to see the “big one” slap it’s fury on Earth. Any time, regardless of what time of year or whether any records are at jeopardy, some people get more eager about any storm above 120kt than a majority of kids get on Christmas morning.

It always happens. “OMGosh, it’s gonna be a category five!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” (Sorry, I had to cut the exclamation points short. Normally there would be a few hundred more plus a handful of emoticons.) Then it happens, there could be all the evidence in the world that says this is a 150 or maybe a 155 mph storm and all hell breaks loose. People start pitching a fit over how horrible the NHC is and how this is a category five. They complain about how recon messed this or that. We saw this yesterday. With all the evidence laid out, certain people still cry over how this is a category five and how the NHC is just trying to screw with history or whatever sorry excuse that person comes up with.

Apparently, the NHC just doesn’t cut it with all their “experience” and “years of education.” People have to realize that they aren’t going to bent the rules around for some quasi-historic event. The NHC is going to play by the rules that they always play by.

It’s funny how people whine that recon finds winds that suggest 156 mph on the surface. Yes, technically that is category five, but they still report 155 mph on the advisory. (That’s just amazing... why on Earth would the NHC round down one mph rather than up four?!?!?) I couldn’t believe the countless messages over this very topic earlier. Yet, we never see anyone fly their freak flag over an event where recon finds 111 mph winds on the surface. Yes, that’s category three, I know, but the NHC always rounds down to 110 mph - category two. It’s standard and no one makes comment about it.

Now, you make the comment about not ignoring the “awesomeness” of a category five. Oh, trust me, I know. I respect the category five just as much as the next Tom, Dick, or Harry, but there is a line between being in awe and rooting for a catastrophe. “CAT 5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOO-HOO!!!!!!!!!!!” is not being in awe. “Not the highest winds?! Sweet!!!” is not being in awe. “It has plenty of time before it hits land, it will reach category five, hopefully,” is not being in awe.

I’d love to see those who are squealing like greased pigs for death and destruction to visit the destroyed areas afterward. I wonder if you would still have that dirt-eating grin on your face when you see the lives torn up and the families that had little to begin with start over with nothing.

Oh, but wait, there’s more! For those who are crying about the whole 156 mph being category five... do you realize that winds aren’t solely the driving item behind this scale? True, that’s what the NHC uses now for their advisories, but Herbert Saffir and Dr. Bob Simpson didn’t make it that way. The scale is a tool on measuring the destructive power and strength of a hurricane. They accomplish this by comparing damage to a standard margin of winds, pressure, and storm surge associated with it. The NHC was right by not upgrading with one observation of category five with high and/or raising pressure. But... I do realize that this isn’t what those who are “hooting and hollering” want.

With all that said, Mr. Franklin gave you all a little Easter Egg... “it is possible that Emily reached category five intensity briefly around 03Z.” Go on... go around and jump for joy. Run around the neighborhood hugging everyone and toss confetti. Remember that while you are doing that, millions of people are faced with a powerhouse of a storm headed their way.





With that said, I'll be in later tonight to decode observations. I'll also have recon plot graphics going as well so we can watch their progress on satellite...

[Anonymous]

556
URNT11 KNHC 171140
97779 11334 10170 81418 30500 18030 09078 /3146
41835
RMK AF308 1105A EMILY OB 09

[wxwatcher91]

nobody here wants to see destruction and death! we are eager for a cat 5 because like I said it is awesome! I am all for it breaking down right now and not harming the Yucatan at all rather than have a cat 5 but like I said, there is little hope that Emily will weaken at all before landfall so why not be eager for a record to be broken rather than hope for something thats not gonna happen. I dont want to see death and destruction and that is very wrong of you accusing people of wishing for it. and yes I HAVE SEEN IT.

and btw thank you always for the recon updates they're well appreciated

[senorpepr]

nobody here wants to see destruction and death! we are eager for a cat 5 because like I said it is awesome! I am all for it breaking down right now and not harming the Yucatan at all rather than have a cat 5 but like I said, there is little hope that Emily will weaken at all before landfall so why not be eager for a record to be broken rather than hope for something thats not gonna happen. I dont want to see death and destruction and that is very wrong of you accusing people of wishing for it. and yes I HAVE SEEN IT.

and btw thank you always for the recon updates they're well appreciated

Okay, first off... I wasn't accusing you or Wnghs2007 of wishing for it. I was being generalized in my statements. As a matter of fact, my original statement said that I may be misreading his comments. I never accused. However... I will accuse people of doing it yesterday. It was going on. Furthermore, my point was really not solely toward those who root for these monsters, but also those who can't grasp reality and accept meteorological reasoning when it comes in the way of their über-storm wishing.

It's funny how you mention that people would like to see it weaken, but since that isn't happening, why not be eager for a record to be broken. I was talking about those who were complaining (yes, complaining) about the abrupt pressure raise, because apperantly it isn't good that Emily would undergo weakening prior to landfall.

[Andrew92]

Sorry to hop in here like this, but I feel this needs to be addressed. This is a reply to a comment in yesterday's recon thread...

I will speak up for Wnghs2007... I very much doubt he wants anyone to die or get hurt from this storm, but him just like I wants to see another record broken... you cant ignore the awesomeness of a cat 5 even though it IS tremedously dangerous.

anyway, either way Emily will strike as a cat 4 or maybe a 5... not much difference in the two in terms of what will happen on land... both would be devastating... only, cat 5 would break the record

we dont wish it on anyone... we wish for the strength and then if possible, a fish...

Well, isn’t that just special? See, this really isn’t about seeing a record broken or not. It an overzealous thrill to see the “big one” slap it’s fury on Earth. Any time, regardless of what time of year or whether any records are at jeopardy, some people get more eager about any storm above 120kt than a majority of kids get on Christmas morning.

It always happens. “OMGosh, it’s gonna be a category five!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” (Sorry, I had to cut the exclamation points short. Normally there would be a few hundred more plus a handful of emoticons.) Then it happens, there could be all the evidence in the world that says this is a 150 or maybe a 155 mph storm and all hell breaks loose. People start pitching a fit over how horrible the NHC is and how this is a category five. They complain about how recon messed this or that. We saw this yesterday. With all the evidence laid out, certain people still cry over how this is a category five and how the NHC is just trying to screw with history or whatever sorry excuse that person comes up with.

Apparently, the NHC just doesn’t cut it with all their “experience” and “years of education.” People have to realize that they aren’t going to bent the rules around for some quasi-historic event. The NHC is going to play by the rules that they always play by.

It’s funny how people whine that recon finds winds that suggest 156 mph on the surface. Yes, technically that is category five, but they still report 155 mph on the advisory. (That’s just amazing... why on Earth would the NHC round down one mph rather than up four?!?!?) I couldn’t believe the countless messages over this very topic earlier. Yet, we never see anyone fly their freak flag over an event where recon finds 111 mph winds on the surface. Yes, that’s category three, I know, but the NHC always rounds down to 110 mph - category two. It’s standard and no one makes comment about it.

Now, you make the comment about not ignoring the “awesomeness” of a category five. Oh, trust me, I know. I respect the category five just as much as the next Tom, Dick, or Harry, but there is a line between being in awe and rooting for a catastrophe. “CAT 5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOO-HOO!!!!!!!!!!!” is not being in awe. “Not the highest winds?! Sweet!!!” is not being in awe. “It has plenty of time before it hits land, it will reach category five, hopefully,” is not being in awe.

I’d love to see those who are squealing like greased pigs for death and destruction to visit the destroyed areas afterward. I wonder if you would still have that dirt-eating grin on your face when you see the lives torn up and the families that had little to begin with start over with nothing.

Oh, but wait, there’s more! For those who are crying about the whole 156 mph being category five... do you realize that winds aren’t solely the driving item behind this scale? True, that’s what the NHC uses now for their advisories, but Herbert Saffir and Dr. Bob Simpson didn’t make it that way. The scale is a tool on measuring the destructive power and strength of a hurricane. They accomplish this by comparing damage to a standard margin of winds, pressure, and storm surge associated with it. The NHC was right by not upgrading with one observation of category five with high and/or raising pressure. But... I do realize that this isn’t what those who are “hooting and hollering” want.

With all that said, Mr. Franklin gave you all a little Easter Egg... “it is possible that Emily reached category five intensity briefly around 03Z.” Go on... go around and jump for joy. Run around the neighborhood hugging everyone and toss confetti. Remember that while you are doing that, millions of people are faced with a powerhouse of a storm headed their way.





With that said, I'll be in later tonight to decode observations. I'll also have recon plot graphics going as well so we can watch their progress on satellite...

Extremely well-said!

I cannot fathom ANYONE wishing a Cat. 5 on ANYONE for pretty much ANY reason.

-Andrew92

[wxwatcher91]

nobody here wants to see destruction and death! we are eager for a cat 5 because like I said it is awesome! I am all for it breaking down right now and not harming the Yucatan at all rather than have a cat 5 but like I said, there is little hope that Emily will weaken at all before landfall so why not be eager for a record to be broken rather than hope for something thats not gonna happen. I dont want to see death and destruction and that is very wrong of you accusing people of wishing for it. and yes I HAVE SEEN IT.

and btw thank you always for the recon updates they're well appreciated

Okay, first off... I wasn't accusing you or Wnghs2007 of wishing for it. I was being generalized in my statements. As a matter of fact, my original statement said that I may be misreading his comments. I never accused. However... I will accuse people of doing it yesterday. It was going on. Furthermore, my point was really not solely toward those who root for these monsters, but also those who can't grasp reality and accept meteorological reasoning when it comes in the way of their über-storm wishing.

It's funny how you mention that people would like to see it weaken, but since that isn't happening, why not be eager for a record to be broken. I was talking about those who were complaining (yes, complaining) about the abrupt pressure raise, because apperantly it isn't good that Emily would undergo weakening prior to landfall.

yes complaining about a rise in pressure is rediculous. I wasnt on when that rise occured yesterday but if complaining occured that is ...profound

anyway, perhaps we were both misreading eachother... let's continue with recon

[Brent]

Uh... this is about the recon flight.

Where are they BTW? It's 8:30am...

[drezee]

SXXX50 KNHC 171204
AF308 1105A EMILY HDOB 26 KNHC
1155 1802N 08229W 03051 0039 196 062 084 084 064 03143 0000000000
1155. 1804N 08231W 03047 0030 196 067 086 086 068 03129 0000000000
1156 1805N 08232W 03043 0017 196 072 090 090 074 03112 0000000000
1156. 1806N 08234W 03045 5005 195 073 088 088 073 03092 0000000000
1157 1807N 08235W 03046 5031 191 077 092 092 078 03068 0000000000
1157. 1809N 08237W 03044 5056 191 083 078 078 087 03040 0000000100
1158 1810N 08239W 03044 5086 197 092 102 102 096 03010 0000000000
1158. 1811N 08240W 03041 5130 199 101 130 092 103 02963 0000000000
1159 1812N 08242W 03056 5193 200 114 162 080 119 02915 0000000000
1159. 1814N 08243W 03032 5264 205 098 130 130 115 02820 0000000000
1200 1815N 08245W 02999 5332 205 062 144 142 076 02719 0000000000
1200. 1816N 08246W 03029 5363 201 033 146 134 041 02718 0000000000
1201 1817N 08248W 03045 5377 182 015 134 134 020 02719 0000000000
1201. 1817N 08250W 03037 5384 014 009 142 140 018 02703 0000000000
1202 1817N 08252W 03034 5366 357 034 142 136 042 02719 0000000000
1202. 1818N 08253W 03036 5345 009 050 152 130 054 02742 0000000000
1203 1819N 08254W 03037 5314 014 064 150 140 069 02774 0000000000
1203. 1820N 08255W 03045 5283 022 084 114 114 091 02814 0000000100
1204 1821N 08256W 03056 5242 034 101 098 098 115 02866 0000000100
1204. 1822N 08258W 03029 5203 046 126 094 094 131 02877 0000000100


Max winds in SE Quad: 119kts ~137mph

Max in NW Quad: 131kts ~151mph

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 171220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/12:01:00Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
082 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2622 m
D. 100 kt
E. 121 deg 004 nm
F. 203 deg 119 kt
G. 126 deg 007 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3036 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1105A EMILY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 119 KT SE QUAD 11:59:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 126 / 7NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION OF EYEWALL

[drezee]

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #308
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 119KT (136.9mph 220.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 11:59:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 107.1KT (123.2mph 198.4km/h) *
Misc Remarks: AX FL TEMP 17 C, 126 / 7NM EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION OF EYEWALL
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 18° 17' N 082° 49' W (18.3°N 82.8°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2622m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 100KT (115MPH 185.2km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 004nm (4.6miles) From Center At Bearing 121°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 119KT (136.85mph 220.4km/h) From 203°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 007nm (8.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 126°
Minimum pressure: 946mb (27.94in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 10 nm (11.5 mi 18.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[drezee]

688
UZNT13 KNHC 171227
XXAA 67127 99183 70829 04582 99957 25400 ///// 00887 ///// /////
92302 23600 33116 85043 21601 36072 70716 13000 02084 88999 77999
31313 09608 81203
61616 AF308 1105A EMILY OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1824N08291W 1206 LST WND 017 MBL WND 32109
AEV 20507 DLM WND 35580 955724 WL150 31104 092 =
XXBB 67128 99183 70829 04582 00957 25400 11892 22002 22891 23000
33850 21601 44759 18019 55709 15000 66698 12400
21212 00957 ///// 11955 30106 22947 31102 33939 32108 44933 32621
55918 33115 66915 33106 77869 01570 88856 00568 99850 36072 11698
02084
31313 09608 81203
61616 AF308 1105A EMILY OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1824N08291W 1206 LST WND 017 MBL WND 32109
AEV 20507 DLM WND 35580 955724 WL150 31104 092 =

[Anonymous]

427
URNT11 KNHC 171235
97779 12304 10195 84218 30500 07050 08088 /3150
40435
RMK AF308 1105A EMILY OB 14

[drezee]

Storm: undefined (Report Time: 17/1244 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 18.2N 82.7W 119 KT (136.85MPH 220.4km/h) [11:34:10Z to 11:57:00Z ]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 35 KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h) @ 180°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 18.4N 83.0W 131 KT (150.65MPH 242.6km/h) [12:06:00Z to 12:29:40Z ]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 35 KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h) @ 040°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 17.1N 81.5W Unknown data 10°C 6°C 032 KT (36.8MPH 59.3 km/h) @ 180°
O02 17.3N 81.6W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 035 KT (40.25MPH 64.8 km/h) @ 170°
O03 17.5N 81.8W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 042 KT (48.3MPH 77.8 km/h) @ 180°
O04 17.6N 82.0W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 042 KT (48.3MPH 77.8 km/h) @ 190°
O05 17.8N 82.2W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 047 KT (54.05MPH 87.0 km/h) @ 190°
O06 18.0N 82.4W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 058 KT (66.7MPH 107.4 km/h) @ 190°
O07 18.1N 82.6W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 078 KT (89.7MPH 144.5 km/h) @ 190°
O01 18.4N 83.0W Unknown data 10°C 10°C 100 KT (115MPH 185.2 km/h) @ 60°
O02 18.6N 83.2W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 064 KT (73.6MPH 118.5 km/h) @ 60°
O03 18.8N 83.4W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 065 KT (74.75MPH 120.4 km/h) @ 70°
O04 19.0N 83.6W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 058 KT (66.7MPH 107.4 km/h) @ 70°
O05 19.2N 83.8W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 055 KT (63.25MPH 101.9 km/h) @ 80°
O06 19.3N 83.9W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 047 KT (54.05MPH 87.0 km/h) @ 70°
O07 19.5N 84.1W Unknown data 9°C 8°C 050 KT (57.5MPH 92.6 km/h) @ 80°

[Innotech]

I dont really care if a storm reaches Cat 5 and starts scaring people. the truth is, we are all on htis Earth on borrowed time and completely at te mercy of NAture. what she iwll do is not for us to decide and if she wants to put on a show you better know Im going to root for that Cat 5 storm.

[Brent]

Cheering for a Cat 5 is not going to make it happen and hoping it'll weaken isn't going to make it happen, so I don't see a problem. People pray all the time they weaken on here, and if you see nothing wrong with that, then I can see nothing with some people wanting a Cat 5. It's just human nature. Perfectly normal.

[Innotech]

I dont always cheer for Cat 5s, but htis is one of those itmes where it seems veryl ikely to have actually occurred. So Im not wishing for it so much as observing that it likely did happen and disagreeing with NHC on it.

[wxwatcher91]

1343 1831N 08311W 03062 5266 149 127 126 126 142 02848 0000000000
1343. 1832N 08309W 03035 5186 143 136 114 112 140 02902 0000000000
1344 1833N 08308W 03045 5131 140 125 104 104 129 02965 0000000000
1344. 1834N 08307W 03060 5090 138 117 086 086 118 03021 0000000100
1345 1835N 08306W 03041 5064 138 114 076 076 114 03029 0000000100
1345. 1836N 08305W 03050 5038 137 107 078 078 110 03064 0000000000
1346 1837N 08304W 03048 5018 136 103 078 078 105 03082 0000000000
1346. 1839N 08303W 03051 5000 135 098 082 082 101 03103 0000000000

[wxwatcher91]

794
URNT12 KNHC 171351
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/13:41:00Z
B. 18 deg 26 min N
083 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2624 m
D. 85 kt
E. 238 deg 004 nm
F. 305 deg 081 kt
G. 231 deg 006 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 18 C/ 3016 m
J. 18 C/ 3029 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E15/15/9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1105A EMILY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 12:04:20

this was issued BEFORE the 142kt winds were recorded