Landfall -- Hmmm........

[dwg71]

at current heading which is 6 hours sustained (put a piece of paper to it), it will hit half way up the pennisula between, belize border and end of pennisula. Bad news for them, good news for 2nd landfall if she stays on course..

[mike18xx]

<Guffaw!> "Ignore that inconvenient data!"

I'm talking about the one at the NHC's site...Only updated every 00min..

Ah; gotchya. IMO, ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov is the only way to spy.

[Stratosphere747]

<Guffaw!> "Ignore that inconvenient data!"

I'm talking about the one at the NHC's site...Only updated every 00min..

Ah; gotchya. IMO, ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov is the only way to spy.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vair3.html

[Sanibel]

Well, maybe not a "serious" shift, but maybe 5* or so?


All said it will probably wobble more NW in the next few frames and make me look foolish...

[Normandy]

Wow u can really see the eye shrink to nothing in that loop.

[mike18xx]

IMO, ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov is the only way to spy.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javair3.html

Ow, my eyes.... It's like an early '60s TV set, and somebody's smacking the side of the cabinet with a ball-peen hammer.

[Sanibel]

Wobble back NW right on cue.


Quick let's change the subject to "It missed Cayman" or something...

[mike18xx]

Those rich bastards paid it off.

Now it'll go kill po' folk.

[Stratosphere747]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_12.html

[dwg71]

There is not much doubt now....

[mike18xx]

What's the source page for those? (I pawed all over http://www.sfwmd.gov looking for it.)

[Sanibel]

That cluster is right where it is headed.

Near Punta Allen Yucatan. We'll see the strength tomorrow...

[Nimbus]

As Deltadog3 noted last night Emily has been s l o w l y gaining latitude and is north of 17 now so you would normally start to expect more recurve....

I read the NHC forecast this morning and the pressures are up in the eye which is getting so small it will need replacing soon.
The outflow restriction they talked about appears to be a little shear from the southwest in the water vapor loop. Emily may well go through an ERC soon and stumble left a little as the UKMET track seems to indicate. This would cause her to spend more time over the Yucatan. Other than that there is not much new in the short term.

The Gulfstream IV data appears to support the J.B. scenario of a persistent weakness in the ridge for the long term forecast.
With Emily traveling over the warm gulf north of 20 this is not comforting from a steering point of view.
We may luck out and get some shear before the second landfall though.

[djtil]

ill go with far enough south of cozumel that the island is not put out of business for any significant time....say...100 miles.

[deltadog03]

thanks nimbus, i am still unsure of a landfall...the ridge has NOT made it past LA yet....that is clearly evident on the SAT...and from the drops from the NOAA jet...the steering currents in the western gulf are out of the SSE or due S....that ridge better hurry up and get to the western gulf...imo..any thoughts??

[HurryKane]

What's the source page for those? (I pawed all over http://www.sfwmd.gov looking for it.)

I've never been able to find it either on my own, but once upon a time someone posted the very nondescript parent page: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Now how you get to THAT page from the SFWMD home page...I know not.

[rockyman]

Unless something drastic happens, I can't see this storm getting into the Yucatan Channel or hitting north of the border. Here's the current steering chart:



Here's the steering layer 24 hours ago...clearly showing the high moving back west and gettin stronger:

[vbhoutex]

thanks nimbus, i am still unsure of a landfall...the ridge has NOT made it past LA yet....that is clearly evident on the SAT...and from the drops from the NOAA jet...the steering currents in the western gulf are out of the SSE or due S....that ridge better hurry up and get to the western gulf...imo..any thoughts??

Couldn't agree more with your statement. If those steering current winds don't shift more out of the SE we could well be looking at a more Northerly landfall than currently indicated. The other thig to be watching is the rises or falls around 500mb. If there are falls in the heights in this layer we would be seeing a possible weakenss in the ridge which again could bring Emily further to the North. Definitely still enough variables I am not comfortable pinpointing a landfall yet, even with the model consensus.

[deltadog03]

thanks nimbus, i am still unsure of a landfall...the ridge has NOT made it past LA yet....that is clearly evident on the SAT...and from the drops from the NOAA jet...the steering currents in the western gulf are out of the SSE or due S....that ridge better hurry up and get to the western gulf...imo..any thoughts??

Couldn't agree more with your statement. If those steering current winds don't shift more out of the SE we could well be looking at a more Northerly landfall than currently indicated. The other thig to be watching is the rises or falls around 500mb. If there are falls in the heights in this layer we would be seeing a possible weakenss in the ridge which again could bring Emily further to the North. Definitely still enough variables I am not comfortable pinpointing a landfall yet, even with the model consensus.

thanks, i appreciate that...anyway, one more thing to consider...look at the SAT loop of the gulf...here is kicker right now for me...look at the storms over the eastern coast of Mexico...right now, they are moving DUE NORTH....almost NNE....we will have to see but, right now there is clearly a weakness there...also, NHC made mention either this morning or last night in there discussion that she might make a move towards the right after coming off the yuc...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Cindy made a very sharp turn to the north coming off the yucatan.